Golden Globe Predictions and Oscar Update

The Martian: Everyone's favourite 'comedy'.
Aidan Monaghan, FOX
Is it Golden Globes time already? It’s so hard to keep up the pace with award season. This year seems to be an open race so far since, as Variety notes, none of the top critics’ groups (ie: the National Board of Review, New York, and LA) have any overlap in the main categories. But with only three to five critics’ groups chiming in so far, there’s no point in sounding the alarm just yet.

This year’s Globe nominations might not do too much to narrow the picture, either, since the field barely has any legitimate comedies that are viable contenders for awards. With The Martian competing as a comedy and not as a drama, the range of overlap will be somewhat skewed. Fox presumably wants voters to consider The Martian as a comedy in order to benefit their own drama The Revenant and secure a chance for winning the comedy prize as Martian stands to compete alongside their own film Joy. The move to have The Martian compete as a comedy could backfire on Fox in the long run. The film probably stands to win the award given the weakness of the field, but they're also cheapening the movie (and devaluing comedy in general) by downplaying the seriousness of the film. Moreover, the dramatic field now has an open spot that The Martian would have occupied. By moving to drama, The Martian could help give an under the radar competitor a major boost.

Similarly, the Best Actress (Drama) and Best Supporting Actress nominations could yield major boosts and major blows for several actresses. Since the Globes outright rejected the campaigns to have Rooney Mara (Carol) and Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl) compete in the supporting category, actresses in true supporting roles such as Jane Fonda (Youth), Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs), Rachel McAdams (Spotlight) or Kristen Stewart (Clouds of Sils Maria) will benefit from the wiggle room and from having actresses with larger, showier roles bumped out of contention. On the other hand, the lead category offers the chance for either Mara or Vikander to bump out a presumed contender like, say, Carey Mulligan (Suffragette) or Helen Mirren (Woman in Gold) and bump themselves up to the lead. The lead designation for Mara, finally, is especially important since it inevitable favours either her or her Carol co-star Cate Blanchett. The Globes voters must choose one actress or the other, rather than vote for two lead roles in two different categories. (On the other hand, both actresses were nominated as a lead at the Independent Spirit awards.)

Finally, Thursday’s nomination announcement offers the first major chance to see how the three remaining studio films perform in terms of awards potential. Embargoes on coverage for The Revenant, Joy, and The Hateful are containing buzz and managing expectations, and the nominations will be the first real indicator for how the films sit with one particular group that’s shown some favour to these filmmakers. Both Joy’s David O. Russell and Hateful Eight’s Quentin Tarantino have performed especially well with the Globes in the past.

However, initial reviews for The Revenant and Joy started trickling out this week and neither seems to be the solid contender one might have presumed them to be sight unseen. Joy looks to be Russell’s least favourably reviewed film yet, although word for Jennifer Lawrence is especially strong, but Joy benefits from a weak comedy field. Expect the film to show up in some capacity since only a handful of the eighty-odd Globe voters need to love it. The Revenant, meanwhile, has reviews that are all over the map. Expect a nomination for Leonardo DiCaprio, but otherwise, it seems to be more likely to make an impression with groups that acknowledge the arts and crafts of a film since the general consensus seems to be that the wow factor of the film lives in its technical accomplishments and in DiCaprio’s performance. Hateful Eight, finally, is still a wild card for speculation, aside from a Best Screenplay win and a Best Supporting Actress prize for Jennifer Jason Leigh from the National Board of Review.

Golden Globe Predictions:
(Predictions include an alternate since the Globes sometimes offer ties/more than five nominees.)

Best Film - Drama
Alt: The Hateful Eight

Best Film – Comedy
The Big Short

Best Director
Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
Alt: Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight

Best Actor – Drama
Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Jake Gyllenhaal, Southpaw
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Alt: Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies

Best Actress – Drama
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Alt: Carey Mulligan, Suffragette

Best Actor – Comedy
Steve Carell, The Big Short
Matt Damon, The Martian
Al Pacino, Danny Collins
Joaquin Phoenix, IrrationalMan
Ben Stiller, While We’re Young

Best Actress – Comedy
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Amy Schumer, Trainwreck
Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van
Meryl Streep, Ricki and the Flash
Lily Tomlin, Grandma
Alt: Greta Gerwig, Mistress America, Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams

Best Supporting Actor
Benicio Del Toro, Sicario
Michael Keaton, Spotlight
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Alt: Jacob Tremblay, Room

Best Supporting Actress
Joan Allen, Room
Jane Fonda, Youth
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Alt: Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria

Best Screenplay
The Hateful Eight
Steve Jobs
Alt: The Martian

Best Score
Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Song
“Cold One” – Ricki and the Flash
“Love Me Like You Do” – Fifty Shades of Grey
“Phenomenal” – Southpaw
“See You Again” – Furious 7
“Writings on the Wall” – Spectre

Best Foreign Language Film
The Brand New Testament - Belgium
Mustang - France
Son of Saul – Hungary

Best Animated Film
Inside Out
The Peanuts Movie
Shaun the Sheep

What are your Golden Globe predictions?

Plus: Updated Oscar Predictions!

*New or moved

Best Picture:

The Martian
The Revenant*

Almost put: Inside Out

What about: The Hateful Eight, Sicario, Son of Saul, Youth*

Best Director:

John Crowley, Brooklyn
Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies

Almost put: Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs

What about: Lenny Abrahamson (Room), George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road), David O. Russell, (Joy), Paolo Sorrentino, Youth*, Quentin Tarantino (The Hateful Eight), Denis Villeneuve (Sicario)

Best Actor:

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant*
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Jake Gyllenhaal, Southpaw
Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Almost put: Johnny Depp, Black Mass
What about: Michael Caine, Youth*, John Cusack (Love & Mercy), Matt Damon (The Martian), Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant), Ian McKellen (Mr. Holmes)

Best Actress:

Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Almost put: Carey Mulligan, Suffragette

What about: Cate Blanchett (Truth), Emily Blunt (Sicario), Marion Cotillard (Macbeth), Rooney Mara (Carol), Carey Mulligan (Far from the Madding Crowd), Nina Hoss (Phoenix),  Helen Mirren (Woman in Gold), Meryl Streep (Ricki and the Flash), Charlie Theron (Mad Max: Fury Road), Lily Tomlin (Grandma)

Best Supporting Actor:

Benicio Del Toro, Sicario
Michael Keaton, Spotlight
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed*

Almost put: Jacob Tremblay, Room*

What about: Emory Cohen (Brooklyn), Bradley Cooper (Joy), Paul Dano (Love & Mercy), Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation), Domhnall Gleeson (Brooklyn), Tom Hardy (The Revenant), Harvey Keitel (Youth)*

Best Supporting Actress:

Joan Allen, Room
Jane Fonda, Youth
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Almost put: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl (But I think they'll recognize her as a lead)

What about: Elizabeth Banks (Love & Mercy), Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight)*, Kristen Stewart (Clouds of Sils Maria), Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl, Julie Walters (Brooklyn), Rachel Weisz (Youth)

Best Original Screenplay:

The Hateful Eight – Quentin Tarantino
Joy - David O. Russell and Annie Mumolo
Spotlight – Tom McCarthy, Josh Singer
Trainwreck - Amy Schumer
Youth– Paolo Sorrentino

What about: Clouds of Sils Maria, Inside Out, Mistress America, Sicario, Straight Outta Compton

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Bridge of Spies – Mark Harmon; Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
Brooklyn – Nick Hornby
Carol - Phyllis Nagy
Room– Emma Donoghue
Steve Jobs – Aaron Sorkin

Almost put: The Danish Girl – Lucinda Coxon*
What about: Anomalisa*, The Martian, Me and Earl and the Dying Girl, The Revenant, Truth

Best Documentary Feature:

Also shortlisted: 31/2 Bullets, 10 Minutes, Going Clear, Heart of a Dog*, He Named Me Malala*, The Hunting Ground*, Meru*, We Come As Friends*, Where to Invade Next; Winter on Fire

Best Foreign Language Film:

The Clan - Argentina
The Second Mother – Brazil
Son of Saul – Hungary
Theeb - Jordan
A War – Denmark

Other submissions reviewed: The Assassin (Taiwan), Baby(a)lone (Luxembourg), Bota (Albania)  Felix and Meira (Canada), The Fencer (Finland), Ixcanul (Guatemala), Koza (Slovakia), Labyrinth of Lies (Germany), NN (Peru), Our Everyday Life (Bosnia and Herzegovina), A Pigeon Sat on a Branch Reflecting On Existence (Sweden), The Wanted 18 (Palestine), The Wave (Norway)

Best Animated Film:

The Boy and the World
Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep
When Marnie Was There

What about: The Good Dinosaur The Peanuts Movie, Home

Best Cinematography:

Mad Max: Fury Road  
The Revenant*

Almost put: The Danish Girl*

What about: The Martian, Steve Jobs, Youth*

Best Film Editing:

The Martian*
The Revenant

What about: Brooklyn*, The Danish Girl, Joy, Room, Sicario, Steve Jobs*

Best Costumes:

The Hateful Eight

What about? Cinderella, Crimson Peak, Far from the Madding Crowd, Love & Macbeth, . Mercy, The Revenant, Suffragette

Best Production Design:

The Hateful Eight 

What about: Carol, Crimson Peak, Macbeth*, Mad Max: Fury Road, Son of Saul*, The Walk

Best Original Score:

What about: Ex Machina, Far from the Madding Crowd, Inside Out, Room, Mad Max: Fury Road,
Steve Jobs

Best Original Song:

Love Me Like You Do” – Fifty Shades of Grey
Hands of Love,” Freeheld
One Kind of Love” – Love & Mercy
Cold One” – Ricki and the Flash

What about: “See You Again,” Furious 7; “Phenomenal” - Southpaw

Best Visual Effects:

In the Heart of the Sea
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

What about: The Walk

Best Sound Mixing:

Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Steve Jobs

Best Sound Editing:

Furious 7

Jurassic Park
The Revenant*

Best Make-Up:

The Revenant*

What about: Black Mass, Crimson PeakIn the Heart of the Sea, Pan

Best Animated Short

Bear Story
Carface (Autos Portraits)
If I Was God…
Love in the Time of March Madness
My Home
An Object at Rest
Sanjay’s Super Team
We Can’t Live Without Cosmos
World of Tomorrow

Best Live Action Short

Awaiting shortlist

Best Documentary Short

Boy Team 12
Chau, Beyond the Lines
Claude Lanzmann:Spectres of Shoah 
50 Feet from Syria
Last Day of Freedom
My Enemy, My Brother
Starting Point
The Testimony