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12/09/2017

Oscar Predictions: Round 2 - Golden Globes and SAG Predictions

Clockwise from top: Dunkirk, The Post, The Shape of Water, Lady Bird, Three Billboards, Get Out
Is it Golden Globes time already? The year for movies really picked up steam and is coming to a strong finish, so the Globe nominations are a tough call. Top contenders like The Post, Phantom Thread, and The Greatest Showman are only just showing their legs—the latter is still the big question mark...and probably not a contender beyond the Globes' musical categories and the crafts branches at the Oscars if the film isn't being trucked out much yet—and the few critics’ prizes doled out so far are more reflective of advocacy than anything else. The early favourites—Call Me By Your Name, Dunkirk, The Shape of Water, and Three Billboards—are still leading the pack unless something really picks up heat from the Globes, which will most likely be The Post.


At the same time, the Globes are a tough call this year because, as always, people are playing fast and loose with the definitions of “comedy” and “drama.” The most notable and widely publicized offender this year is Universal’s horror film Get Out, directed by Jordan Peele, which is being pushed as a comedy at the Globes for no reason other than strategy. Peele’s brilliant genre-twist on race relations in America certainly is satirical, and has one character who functions for comic relief, but it is no way a comedy and could snag a Best Film nomination at the expense of a legitimate comedy like Girls Trip or I, Tonya.

I think the effort to brand it was such actually hurts the film because it shapes one’s expectations. I personally hadn’t seen Get Out prior to the Globes’ controversy, and while I really liked the film, I left it thinking that it was smart but not funny. Several of the films in the dramatic category, like Three Billboards outside Ebbing Missouri and Beatriz at Dinner, have bigger funny bones but are standing behind their dramatic heft. Get Out might have better luck in the screenplay or direction categories, which aren’t bound by genre. The Globes don’t have any history for passing over a film because it played the category split for an easy win (see: The Martian) while they often have at least one film that scores well across the board but misses Best Film (see: Gone Girl, Nocturnal Animals).

When it comes to the SAG Awards, the contenders become a bit broader with the much larger voting body and younger members. The past few years of the SAG nominees show a preference for films that are readily available and get out of the gate early, like Emily Blunt getting in for The Girl on the Train, Netflix’s Beasts of No Nation nabbing a random ensemble slot, and Straight Outta Compton making a big splash with the actors. This year, the favourite going in for the ensemble prize is likely Three Billboards, but it has strong competitors in The Post, Lady Bird, and Get Out with the fifth spot probably going to any of Dunkirk, The Shape of Water, Darkest Hour, I, Tonya, Mudbound or Call Me By Your Name.

On with the show

Golden Globe Predictions:

Best Film – Drama
Call Me By Your Name
Dunkirk
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Alt: Darkest Hour

Best Film  - “Comedy” or Musical
Battle of the Sexes
The Big Sick
The Greatest Showman
I, Tonya
Lady Bird

Alt: Get Out, Girls Trip

Best Actress – Drama
Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Meryl Streep, The Post

Alt: Salma Hayek, Beatriz at Dinner

Best Actor – Drama
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger
Tom Hanks, The Post
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

Best Actress – “Comedy” or Musical
Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul
Queen Latifah, Girls’Trip
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes

Best Actor – “Comedy” or Musical
Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman
Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick
Adam Sandler, The Meyerwitz Stories

Alt: Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out, Ben Stiller, Brad’s Status

Best Supporting Actress
Tiffany Haddish, Girls’ Trip
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Melissa Leo, Novitiate
Laurie Metcalfe, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

Alt: Holly Hunter, The Big Sick

Best Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Mark Rylance, Dunkirk

Best Director
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Angelina Jolie, First They Killed My Father
Christopher Nolan, Dukirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Steven Spielberg, The Post

Best Screenplay
Call Me By Your Name
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Post
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Alt: The Shape of Water

Best Foreign Language Film
First They Killed My Father – Cambodia
BPM (Beats Per Minute) – France
The Insult – Lebanon
Menashe – USA
The Square – Sweden

Alt: Loveless, Russia

Best Animated Film
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
The LEGO Batman Movie
Loving Vincent

Best Score
Dunkirk
Darkest Hour
The Greatest Showman
The Shape of Water
Wonderstruck

Best Song
“Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast
“How Does a Moment Last Forever?” from Beauty and the Beast
“The Mystery of Love” from Call Me By Your Name
“Remember Me” from Coco
“This is Me” from The Greatest Showman

SAG

Best Ensemble
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Post
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger
Tom Hanks, The Post
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalfe, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name

UPDATED OSCAR PREDICTIONS

*New or moved

Best Picture
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
The Post
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

What about: Battle of the Sexes; Blade Runner 2049Detroit; First They Killed My Father,* Get Out*, The Florida Project; I, Tonya; Mudbound; Phantom Thread

Best Director
Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Steven Spielberg, The Post
Joe Wright, Darkest Hour

What about: Luca Guadagnino, Call Me By Your Name; Angelina Jolie, First They Killed My Father; Sean Baker, The Florida Project; Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird; Dee Rees, Mudbound; Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread; Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049

Best Actress
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post*

What about: Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool; Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game; Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul;* Salma Hayek, Beatriz at Dinner; Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes; Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel  

Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger
Tom Hanks, The Post*
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

What about: Jamie Bell, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool*; Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying*; Andrew Garfield, Breathe; Jeremy Renner, Wind River; Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.*; Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out*

Best Supporting Actress
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Melissa Leo, Novitiate
Laurie Metcalfe, Lady Bird
Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

What about: Mary J. Blige, Mudbound, Holly Hunter, The Big Sick; Tatiana Maslany, Stronger; Carey Mulligan, Mudbound*; Rosamund Pike, Hostiles, Catherine Keener, Get Out*, Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip*

Best Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Mark Rylance, Dunkirk
Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name*

What about: Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes, Idris Elba, Molly’s Game; Will Poulter, Detroit; John Boyega, Detroit; Jason Mitchell, Mudbound*; Garrett Hedlund, Mudbound*; Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water, Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water*, Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri*, Bob Odenkirk, The Post*

Best Documentary
Jane
Strong Island*

Also shortlisted: Abacus: Small Enough to Jail, Chasing Coral, Ex-Libris*, An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power*,  Icarus, LA 92*, Last Men in Aleppo*, Long Strange Trip*, One of Us, Unrest*

Best Foreign Language Film
Hungary – On Body and Soul
Israel - Foxtrot*
Russia - Loveless*

Other submissions reviewed: Happy End (Austria), Racer and the Jailbird (Belgium), Hochelaga, Land of Souls (Canada), In the Fade (Germany), Amerika Square (Greece), Turah (Indonesia), Song of Granite (Ireland), Kati Kati (Kenya), Razzia (Morocco), Thelma (Norway), Birdshot (Philippines), Saint George (Portugal), The Fixer (Romania), The Square (Sweden), The Divine Order (Switzerland)

Best Animated Film
Boss Baby
Coco
Ferdinand*
Loving Vincent

What about: Despicable Me 3* (but it's really terrible), LEGO Batman*, Window Horses (FYC Stick Girl!)

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Beguiled - Sofia Coppola*
Call Me By Your Name – James Ivory
First They Killed My Father – Angelina Jolie, Luong Ung
Mudbound – Dee Rees
Wonderstruck – Brian Selznick                      

What about: Last Flag Flying – Richard Linklater*; Molly's Game, Aaron Sorkin

Best Original Screenplay
Get Out*
Lady Bird*
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

What about: Darkest Hour*, Dunkirk, I, Tonya*, Phantom Thread*

Best Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
Darkest Hour
The Post*
The Shape of Water

What about: Wonder WheelThe BeguiledFirst They Killed My FatherCall Me By Your Name, Hostiles*, Wonderstruck*

Best Film Editing
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
I, Tonya*
The Post
The Shape of Water

What about: Darkest Hour,* Battle of the Sexes, Wonderstruck, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, MissouriWonder Woman         

Best Original Score
Darkest Hour*
Dunkirk
Jane
The Shape of Water*
Wonderstruck

What about: Coco*, Hostiles*, Beauty and the Beast*, Battle of the Sexes*, The Post*  

Best Song
Beauty and the Beast – How Does a Moment Last Forever?
Call Me My Your Name – “The Mystery of Love
Coco, “Remember Me”*
Cries from Syria – “Prayers for this World
This is Me” from The Greatest Showman*

What about: Battle of the Sexes (“If I Dare”), Beauty and the Beast (“Evermore”)*, Despicable Me 3 (“There’s Something Special”), An Inconvenient Sequel (“Truth to Power”), LEGO Batman (“Friends are Family”), Step – “Jump”*

Best Costumes
Beauty and the Beast
The Greatest Showman*
Phantom Thread
The Post*
Victoria & Abdul

What about: The BeguiledBlade Runner 2049, My Cousin Rachel, Murder on the Orient Express, Mudbound, Wonder Wheel, Hostiles*, Wonderstruck*, Darkest Hour*

Best Production Design
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
The Greatest Showman*
Murder on the Orient Express
The Shape of Water

Best Sound Mixing
Blade Runner 2049
Detroit
Dunkirk
The Post*
Wonder Woman

What about: Atomic Blonde, Darkest Hour, The Shape of Water, Wonderstruck. mother!*

Best Sound Editing
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
Logan
War for the Planet of the Apes
Wonder Woman

Best Visual Effects
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes
Wonder Woman