Oscars

La La Land: the frontrunner?
eOne Films
Hooray for Oscars! They're the most entertaining--and convenient--way to chat about the films we love. Predictions are therefore primarily for purposes of amusement and discussion. The listed predictions are purely from a fan's perspective and do not reflect the personal choices of the author, although some element of endorsement is inevitable when one says that a contender has what it takes to go all the way. Coverage of the Canadian Screen Awards may be found here.

2016 Race
★ Round 1: Once More unto the breach
★ Round 2: Golden Globe and SAG Edition
★ Round 3: Another Day of Sun

The nominees! (updated Feb. 24)

Best Picture:
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Will win: La La Land
Should win: Since the ballot asks for a top five, mine goes: 1) Arrival 2) Hell or High Water 3) La La Land 4) Moonlight 5) Lion
Should have been there: JackieNocturnal AnimalsLove & Friendship


Best Director
Damian Chazelle, La La Land
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

Will win: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Should win: Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Should have been there: Pablo LarraĆ­n, Jackie; David McKenzie, Hell or High Water

Best Actress
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

Will win: Emma Stone, La La Land
Should win: Natalie Portman, Jackie
Should have been there: Amy Adams, Arrival; Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane

Best Actor
Casey Affleck, Manchester By the Sea 
Andrew GarfieldHacksaw Ridge 
Ryan Gosling, La La Land 
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences

Will win: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Should win: Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Should have been there: Peter Simonischek, Toni Erdmann

Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia SpencerHidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Will win: Viola Davis, Fences
Should win: Nicole Kidman, Lion
Should have been there: Dakota Johnson, A Bigger Splash, Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Miss Sloane, Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

Will win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Should win: Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Should have been there: Tom Wilkinson, Denial

Adapted Screenplay
Arrival
Fences
Lion
Hidden Figures
Moonlight

Will win: Moonlight
Should win: Arrival
Should have been there: Nocturnal AnimalsLove & Friendship

 Original Screenplay
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
20th Century Women

Will win: Manchester by the Sea
Should win: Hell or High Water
Should have been there: Jackie, Eye in the Sky

Best Documentary

Will win: OJ: Made in America
Should win: I am Not Your Negro
Should have been there: Miss Sharon Jones!, Cameraperson
-->Read more on the Oscar doc race at POV!

Best Foreign Language Film
Land of Mine (Denmark)
A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
The Salesman (Iran)
Tanna (Australia)
Toni Erdmann (Germany)

Will win: Toni Erdmann
Should win: Tanna
Should have been there: Sieranevda (Romania), Elle (France)


Best Animated Film
The Red Turtle
Zootopia

Will win: Zootopia
Should win: Kubo and the Two Strings
Should have been there: The Little Prince

Best Film Editing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight

Will win: La La Land
Should win: Arrival
Should have been there: Jackie 

Best Cinematography
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence

Will win: La La Land
Should win: Arrival
Should have been there: JackieNocturnal AnimalsHell or High Water

Best Score
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers

Will win: La La Land
Should win: Jackie
Should have been there: Arrival, Nocturnal Animals

Best Song
Jim: The James Foley Story, "The Empty Chair"
La La Land, “City of Stars
La La Land, Audition - Fools Who Dream
Moana, “How Far I'll Go
Trolls, "Can't Stop this Feeling"

Will win: "City of Stars"
Should win: "City of Stars"
Should have been there: "The Ballad of Wiener-Dog," Wiener-Dog; "Drive It Like You Stole It," Sing Street (and pretty much any other song that was better than the pandering crap from Trolls)

Best Costumes
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land

Will win: Jackie
Should win: Jackie
Should have been there: Love & Friendship

Best Production Design
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
La La Land
Passengers

Will win: Arrival
Should win: Arrival
Should have been there: Jackie


Best Hair and Make-Up
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad  

Will win: Suicide Squad
Should win: None, honestly.
Should have been there: Hacksaw Ridge, Florence Foster Jenkins, Hail Caesar!

Best Sound Mixing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
13 Hours

Will win: La La Land
Should win: Arrival
Should have been there: Silence

Best Sound Editing
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully

Will win: Arrival
Should win: Arrival
Should have been there: Hell or High Water

Best Visual Effects
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Will win: The Jungle Book
Should win: Kubo and the Two Strings
Should have been there: Arrival, A Monster Calls

Best Animated Short
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper

Will win: Piper
Should win: Blind Vaysha

Best Live Action Short
Ennemis Interieurs
Le femme et le TGV
Silent Nights
Sing
Timecode

Will win: La femme et le TGV
Should win: La femme et le TGV

Best Documentary (Short Subject)
Extremis
4.1 Miles
Joe's Violin
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets

Will win: The White Helmets
Should win: White Helmets

★2015 Race

Round 1: Where's the Story, Oscar Glory? (Oct. 29)
Round 2: Canucks in Contention: Could 2015 Be Canada's Biggest Year Yet? (Nov. 20)
Round 3: Golden Globes Predictions and Oscar Update (Dec. 8) 
Round 4/5: Hungry Films, but who gets the noms? (Jan. 13)
Round 6: Final Predictions - 'Fasten Your Seatbelts. It's Going to Be a Bumpy Night!'
Recap: Spotlight Wins: Oscar Season End on Much-Needed High Note


★2014 Oscar race
Round 1: Let's Get this Party Started!
Round 2: Could Award Season Revive These Contenders?


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