Oscar Predictions

Will Canada score a nom (or a win) with Mommy?
Hooray for Oscars! They're the most entertaining--and convenient--way to chat about the films we love. Predictions are therefore primarily for purposes of amusement and discussion. The listed predictions do not reflect the personal choices of the author, although some element of seepage is inevitable when one says that a contender has what it takes to go all the way. Coverage of the Canadian Screen Awards may be found here.


★2014 Oscar race
Round 1: Let's Get this Party Started!
Round 2: Could Award Season Revive These Contenders?

(As of Oct. 24, 2014.) 

*New or moved

Best Picture:


Birdman
Foxcatcher
Interstellar*
The Theory of Everything
Unbroken
Wild

Almost put: Still Alice
What about: American Sniper,* Big Eyes, Fury, Into the Woods,  Mr. Turner, Selma, Whiplash

Best Director

David Fincher, Gone Girl
Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Birdman
Angelina Jolie, Unbroken
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Morten Tyldum,  The Imitation Game

Almost put: Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
What about: Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel; Ava DuVernay, Selma; Mike Leigh, Mr. Turner; James Marsh, The Theory of Everything; Rob Marshall, Into the Woods; Christopher Nolan, Interstellar*; Jean-Marc Vallée, Wild.

Best Actor

Steve Carrell, Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch,  The Imitation Game
Ben Affleck, Gone Girl*
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Almost put: Ralph Fiennes The Grand Budapest Hotel*
What about: Ellar Coltrane, Boyhood; Philip Seymour Hoffman, A Most Wanted Man*; Oscar Isaac, A Most Violent Year; Tommy Lee Jones, The Homesman; Bill Murray, St. Vincent; Jack O’Connell, Unbroken; David Oyelowo, Selma; Joaquin Phoenix, Inherent Vice; Timothy Spall, Mr. Turner; Channing Tatum, Foxcatcher; Christoph Waltz, Big Eyes.

Best Actress

Amy Adams, Big Eyes
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything*
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Almost put: Emily Blunt, Into the Woods*
What about: Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year; Marion Cotillard, The Immigrant; Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night; Hilary Swank, The Homesman; Mia Wasikowska, Tracks.

Save it for the Screenies: Anne Dorval, Mommy; Julianne Moore, Maps to the Stars

Best Supporting Actor:

Miyavi, Unbroken
Edward Norton, Birdman*
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
JK Simmons, Whiplash
Channing Tatum, Foxcatcher

Almost Put: Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
What about: Alec Baldwin, Still Alice; Josh Brolin, Inherent Vice; Benicio Del Toro, Inherent Vice*; Domhnall Gleeson, Unbroken 

Best Supporting Actress

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Laura Dern, Wild
Keira Knightley,  The Imitation Game*
Kristen Stewart, Still Alice
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

Almost put: Hilary Swank, The Homesman*
What about: Marion Bailey, Mr. Turner; Carrie Coon, Gone Girl*; Anna Kendrick, Into the Woods, Emma Stone, Birdman, Tilda Swinton,  Snowpiercer.

Best Original Screenplay

Birdman – Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Armando Bo
Boyhood – Richard Linklater
Foxcatcher – E. Max Frye, Dan Futterman
The Grand Budapest Hotel– Wes Anderson
Mr. Turner – Mike Leigh

Almost put: Whiplash – Damien Chazelle
What about: Chef - Jon Favreau*; Interstellar - Christopher Nolan, Jonathan Nolan*; A Most Violent Year, J.C. Chandor; Big Eyes – Scott Alexander, Larry Karaszewski;

Best Adapted Screenplay

Gone Girl - Gillian Flynn
The Imitation Game – Graham Moore
Still Alice - Richard Glatzer, Wash Westmoreland
The Theory of Everything – Anthony McCarten
Wild – Nick Hornby

Almost put: Inherent Vice – Paul Thomas Anderson*
What about: Into the Woods – James Lapine; A Most Wanted Man - Andrew Bovell; Unbroken – Joel Coen, Ethan Coen, Richard Lagravenese, William Nicholson

Best Film Editing:

Birdman
Interstellar*

Almost put: Unbroken
What about: Foxcatcher, Fury, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game , Into the Woods

Best Cinematography:

Birdman
Interstellar*
Mr. Turner
Unbroken

Almost put: Wild*
What about: Fury, The Grand Budapest Hotel The Imitation Game, Into the WoodsSnowpiercer

Best Costumes:

Into the Woods
Mr. Turner

What about: Belle, Big Eyes, Exodus, Inherent Vice, Magic in the Moonlight

Best Production Design:

Into the Woods
Mr. Turner          

Almost put:  The Imitation Game
What about: Big Eyes, The Hobbit 3, Inherent Vice, Interstellar

Best Score:

Gone Girl– Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross
The Grand Budapest Hotel– Alexandre Desplat
The Imitation Game  – Alexandre Desplat
Interstellar – Hans Zimmer
The Lego Movie – Marc Mothersbaugh

What about: Birdman, The Judge, The Theory of Everything, Under the Skin

Sound Mixing:

Interstellar
Into the Woods
Unbroken

What about: Edge of Tomorrow, Fury, Get on Up, The Hobbit 3Snowpiercer

Sound Editing:

Fury
Interstellar
Transformers 4

What about: The Lego MovieSnowpiercer, Unbroken

Visual Effects:

Guardians of the Galaxy
Interstellar

What about: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, Noah Snowpiercer, Transformers 4

Best Make-up

Into the Woods
Unbroken

What about: Foxcatcher, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Hobbit 3, Mr. Turner, Snowpiercer, X-Men: Days of Future Past

Best Song:

“Rainbows,” Into the Woods
 What is Love?,” Rio 2

What about: Tell Me If You Wanna Go Home,”Begin Again,  “Like a Fool,” Begin Again,Coming Up Roses," Begin Again; "Mercy Is," Noah.

Best Documentary Feature:

The Case Against 8
Finding Vivian Meier

Almost put: CITIZENFOUR*
What about: Sunshine Superman, Tales of the Grim Sleeper, The Look of Silence (will it be released this year?), Red Army

Best Foreign Language Film:

Beloved Sisters - Germany
Ida - Poland
Mommy – Canada
Two Days, One Night - Belgium
Wild Tails – Argentina

Almost put: Force Majeure – Sweden
List of submitted films on Wikipedia.
*Please see The Film Experience for the best and most comprehensive coverage on this category.

Best Animated Film:

Big Hero 6
Book of Life
The Boxtrolls
Tale of Princess Kaguya


Best Animated Short:

[awaiting shortlist for additional four films]

Best Live Action Short:

[awaiting shortlist]

Short Documentary Short:


Shortlist:

Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
Joanna
Kehinde Wiley: An Economy of Grace

The Lion’s Mouth Opens

One Child
Our Curse

The Reaper (La Parka)
White Earth


★ 2013 Oscar Race

Mar. 3: Oscars Recap: 'And the Best Film Wins!'
Feb. 28: Final Round: Might as Well Pick Names from a Hat!
Jan. 15:  Round 5: Final Nominations Predictions -- Time for a 'Hail Meryl'?
Jan. 14: Best Adapted Screenplay: No Longer a Novel Affair?
Jan. 9: Golden Globe Picks and Predictions
Dec. 27: Round 4 - Boxing Week Match-ups
Dec. 9: Round 3: Golden Globe and SAG Nominations
Nov. 3: Oscar Predictions Round 2 - So Many Actors, Not Enough Spots
Nov. 1: Talking Oscars: Best Actress and Best Actor
Oct. 30: Talking Oscars: The Supporting Races
Oct. 3: Oscar Predictions Round 1 - Too Soon?
Aug. 11: Eye on Canada: The Best Foreign Language Film Race at TIFF

★ 2012 Oscar Race
Feb. 22 Write-up: Will win/should win
Feb. 9 Write-up: Memo to the Academy


***
 

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