Oscars

La La Land: the frontrunner?
eOne Films
Hooray for Oscars! They're the most entertaining--and convenient--way to chat about the films we love. Predictions are therefore primarily for purposes of amusement and discussion. The listed predictions are purely from a fan's perspective and do not reflect the personal choices of the author, although some element of endorsement is inevitable when one says that a contender has what it takes to go all the way. Coverage of the Canadian Screen Awards may be found here.

2016 Race
★ Round 1: Once More unto the breach
★ Round 2: Golden Globe and SAG Edition

*New or moved
 (updated Jan. 19)



Best Picture:
Fences



Best Director
Damian Chazelle, La La Land
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water*
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

What about: Maren Ade, Toni Erdmann; Garth Davis, Lion*; Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals; Pablo Larraín, Jackie*, Jeff Nichols, Loving; Martin Scorsese, Silence; Denzel Washington, Fences, Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge

Best Actress
Amy Adams, Arrival
Isabelle Huppert, Elle*
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land

What about: Annette Bening, 20th Century Women; Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane*; Ruth Negga, Loving*

Falling off: Rachel Weisz, Denial*

Best Actor
Casey Affleck, Manchester By the Sea 
Joel Edgerton, Loving
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge 
Ryan Gosling, La La Land 
Denzel Washington, Fences

What about: Adam Driver, Paterson; Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals, Tom Hanks, Sully; Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic*; Dev Patel, Lion

Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

What about: Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women; Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures*, Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Dev Patel, Lion
Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals*

What about: Ben Foster, Hell or High Water*, Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea*;  Trevonte Rhodes, Moonlight, Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals*


Adapted Screenplay
Arrival
Fences
Lion*
Moonlight
Nocturnal Animals

What about: Elle, Hidden Figures, Love and Friendship*, Loving*

 Original Screenplay
Hell or High Water
Jackie
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
20th Century Women 

What about: The Lobster, Toni Erdmann

Falling off: Miss Sloane

Best Documentary
I am Not Your Negro  
OJ: Made in America*
Weiner

Also shortlisted: Cameraperson, Command and Control, The Eagle Huntress, Fire at Sea*,  Hooligan Sparrow, The Ivory Game, Life, Animated, Tower, The Witness, Zero Days

Best Foreign Language Film
Land of Mine (Denmark)
A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
The Salesman (Iran)
Tanna (Australia)
Toni Erdmann (Germany)

Also shortlisted: It's Only the End of the World (Canada), The King's Choice (Norway), My Life as a Courgette (Switzerland), Paradise (Russia)

Best Animated Film
Moana
The Red Turtle
Zootopia

What about: My Life as a Courgette, The Little Prince


Best Film Editing
Arrival
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Lion*
Moonlight

What about: Manchester by the Sea*, Silence, Sully, Jackie, Star Wars: Rogue One

Best Cinematography
Arrival
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Nocturnal Animals
Silence

What about: Hail, Caesar! Jackie, Lion*

Falling off: Café Society*

Best Score
Jackie
Hidden Figures*
La La Land
Lion*
Nocturnal Animals*

What about: Moonlight*, Silence*, Finding Dory*, Moana*

Best Song
La La Land, “City of Stars
Loving, "Loving"
Moana, “How Far I'll Go
Sing Street, “Drive It Like You Stole It
Zootopia, "Try Everything"*

What about: Loving, "Loving"*,  La La Land (“Audition - Those Who Dream”), Wiener-Dog (“The Ballad of Wiener-Dog”), "Can't Stop this Feeling", Trolls; Hidden Figures ("Runnin'")*; Hidden Figures, "I See a Victory"*; Miss Sharon Jones!, “I’m Still Here”*

Best Costumes
Florence Foster Jenkins
Hidden Figures*
Jackie
La La Land
Silence

What about: Birth of a Nation, Café Society, The Dressmaker, Fences, Hail, Caesar!, Love & Friendship*

Best Production Design
Arrival
The BFG
Jackie
La La Land
Silence

What about: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Florence Foster Jenkins, Hail, Caesar!, Love and Friendship,  A Monster Calls, Passengers


Best Hair and Make-Up
Deadpool
Hail, Caesar!
Suicide Squad 


Also shortlisted: The Dressmaker*, Florence Foster Jenkins*, A Man Called Ove*, Star Trek Beyond* 

Best Sound Mixing
Arrival
Deadpool
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Silence 

Best Sound Editing
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
The Jungle Book
 
Best Visual Effects
Arrival
The BFG
Deepwater Horizon
The Jungle Book
Star Wars: Rogue One

Also shortlisted: Captain America, Doctor Strange, Fantastic Beasts..., Kubo and the Two Strings, Passengers

★2015 Race

Round 1: Where's the Story, Oscar Glory? (Oct. 29)
Round 2: Canucks in Contention: Could 2015 Be Canada's Biggest Year Yet? (Nov. 20)
Round 3: Golden Globes Predictions and Oscar Update (Dec. 8) 
Round 4/5: Hungry Films, but who gets the noms? (Jan. 13)
Round 6: Final Predictions - 'Fasten Your Seatbelts. It's Going to Be a Bumpy Night!'
Recap: Spotlight Wins: Oscar Season End on Much-Needed High Note


★2014 Oscar race
Round 1: Let's Get this Party Started!
Round 2: Could Award Season Revive These Contenders?


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