How will the races shape up? Who knows? Part of what makes the Globes so enjoyable, regardless of their relevance, is their unpredictability – recall last year’s win of The Hangover over Julie & Julia, Nine, and (500) Days of Summer. This year should be exciting because there are several races that seem close. Which names are called might be predictable, but alternatively, some front-runners could be blind-sided by the competition (I promise to stop the Sandra Bullock jokes after this award season.)
My picks and predictions in the major film categories:
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The Social Network |
It sounds like The Social Network cannot be stopped on its way to a Best Picture win. Having swept virtually every critics prize handed out so far and topping critics’ Top Ten lists exponentially more than any other film, it’s definitely the front-runner. If the HFPA recognizes that Social isn’t all that brave, since it essentially just throws eggs and tomatoes at Mark Zuckerberg in order to allow his product go unscathed, it might not win. The HFPA, additionally, rewards emotionally driven films most often, and The Social Network, while spectacularly produced, has as much heart as a suit of armour. The King’s Speech, however, offers just that – emotion. It’s also a flawless production. Add to that it’s higher tally of nominations, The King’s Speech might be the only film that can dethrone the Facebook movie.
Tying The Social Network with six nods is The Fighter. The Fighter, though, should probably content itself with its nomination and will more likely be acknowledged only in the acting categories. Likewise, Inception is a worthy nominee; moreover, it’s exactly the kind of blockbuster favoured by the Globes, but is that enough? Personally, I’m rooting for Black Swan. It’s surprising to see such an original, small, independent production among the nominees, but that proves that regardless of whatever triumphs, the HFPA can’t be accused of bad taste.
Will win: The Social Network
Should win: Black Swan
Best Picture – Comedy/ Musical
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The Kids Are All Right |
The largest disaster of this year’s nominees is the Best Picture – Comedy/Musical category. Burlesque randomly popped up here, proving that films need only to be a musical to be nominated. At least Burlesque is better than fellow nominee Alice in Wonderland, which deserves only Golden Raspberries. Nominees Red and The Tourist are fun escapist fare, but better films were omitted from the ballot – see Barney’s Version, Made in Dagenham, and Please Give. The only foreseeable victor here is The Kids Are All Right – a smart, important, and above all, funny film.
Will win/ Should win: The Kids Are All Right
Best Director:
David Fincher |
Will win: David Fincher, The Social Network
Should win: Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Best Actor – Drama
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Colin Firth in The Kings Speech |
Colin Firth is the front-runner for The King’s Speech and he wholly deserves each accolade that this season has brought him. The Best Actor race mirrors the Best Picture race in that Firth’s closest competition comes from Social Network star Jesse Eisenberg. Eisenberg is a tough choice, though, because he plays such an unlikeable character, and many moviegoers, myself included, often make the mistake of conflating character with performance. Similar to the Best Picture race, Mark Wahlberg coulda’ been a contender for The Fighter, but he will have to settle for another year. James Franco could make an upset, however, for 127 Hours, as could dark horse Ryan Gosling in Blue Valentine, which I have not yet had the pleasure to see.
Will win/ Should win: Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
Best Actress – Drama
It is no surprise who I’m rooting for – Natalie Portman in Black Swan. Having seen the film for a second time, Portman’s performance vastly surpasses the complexity and range of all the other nominees in the other fields. The race is hers to lose. The biggest spoiler could be Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole – it’s one of the strongest performances of her career and the HFPA has awarded Kidman three times already (for To Die For, Moulin Rouge!, and The Hours). Rabbit Hole missed some expected nominations, however, such as Dianne Wiest for Best Supporting Actress, so the film may not have much support. On that note, Jennifer Lawrence may be the one to overthrow Portman with her astonishing breakthrough in Winter’s Bone. Also nominated is Michelle Williams for Blue Valentine, but like Gosling, it’s hard to imagine her winning. The surprise nominee of the group is Halle Berry for Frankie & Alice: The film has received little buzz since its premiere on the festival circuit months ago, much of which was mixed. Like all the films represented in this category, however, Frankie & Alice is a small production that greatly needs the exposure from the awards run. It’s also a Canadian production, so I wish Berry and the film the best of luck!
Will/Should win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Best Actor: Comedy
Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs |
Will win: Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs
Should win: Paul Giamatti, Barney’s Version
Best Actress – Comedy
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right |
Will win: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Should win: Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right
Best Supporting Actor
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Christian Bale, The Fighter |
Will win: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Should win: Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech
Best Supporting Actress
Melissa Leo in The Fighter |
Will win: Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Should win: Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
Finally:
127 Hours – Danny Boyle, Simon Beaufoy
Inception – Christopher Nolan
The Kids Are All Right – Lisa Cholodenko, Stuart Blumberg
The King’s Speech – David Seidler
The Social Network – Aaron Sorkin
Will win: The Social Network
Should win: The Kids Are All Right
127 Hours, AR Rahman
Alice in Wonderland, Danny Elfman (how?)
Inception, Hans Zimmer
The Kings Speech, Alexandre Desplat
The Social Network, Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross
Will win: The Social Network (tough call…)
Should win: Inception
Best Song:
Burlesque, “You Haven’t Seen the Last of Me”
Country Strong, “Coming Home”
Chronicles of Narnia: Voyage of the Dawn Treader, “There’s a Place for Us”
Tangled, “I See the Light”
Will win: Tangled (that’s a wild guess, though)
Should win: “You Haven’t Seen the Last of Me”
Biutiful (Mexico)
The Concert (France)
The Edge (Russia)
I am Love (Italy)
In a Better World (Denmark)
Will/should win: I am Love
Despicable Me
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Tangled
Toy Story 3
Will win: Toy Story 3
Should win: (I haven’t seen enough to judge…)
Agree or disagree? I hope that the HFPA will shake things up a little and make the Best Picture race a little more exciting. In the meantime, I’ll cross my fingers for Black Swan and Jacki Weaver.