Oscar Predictions

Jane Lynch & Fred Willard in the 2006 award season spoof For Your Consideration. What does Oscar's crystal ball forsee?
So the Oscar nominations will be announced Tuesday! Who's saying a last minute prayer for War Horse?


My sentiments exactly. A small part of me died when I picked War Horse as the tenth nominee over the likes of Tree of Life and Tinker Tailor. However, I'm hoping that the Oscar gods are watching out and that the new Academy voting guidelines works in the favour of quality films. I'll admit, I liked having 10 Best Picture nominees. I think we all knew that the race was done to the films with Best Director noms, and maybe one other, but overall the added slots gave exposure to films that genuinely benefited from it. This year, the number of nominees is a flexible range of 5-10. A film requires 5% of the #1 spots on ballots in the first round of voting in order to be nominated. After that, the group of nominees is tallied accordingly. (In short.) I'm predicting 8 nominees, which are:

The Artist
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Help
The Ides of March
Midnight in Paris

I think the choice of Ides of March is a bit sketchy... that will probably not make it if there's less than 8. 
If there are 9 or 10 nominees, then I think Bridesmaids and, gulp, War Horse come in. (In that order.)

Anyways, I've made my final set of predictions for the event, which you can see over at Gold Derby. (No need to type them out again!) I also have SAG predix up.
In the meantime, I'll cross my fingers that I'm wrong and that names like Gary Oldman, Carey Mulligan, and Corey Stoll are called out on Tuesday. 

What are you predicting?