Oscar Predictions: Round 1

Anne Hathaway in Les Misérables

Festival season is entering its final stretch and Oscar season is quickly around the corner. Word is that the little gold man didn’t see his shadow, so campaigning shall begin earlier this year. (Nominations will be announced on January 10, i.e. the day after final ballots are due for the Golden Globes, which means that this year could be uglier than ever.) It’s never too early to try to predict the winners. It’s almost more fun to do so before some of the biggies have opened, since one’s opinion of a film can often cloud judgement. (I tend to fall victim to that, as you’ll see below.) I’ll be offering predictions and chiming in on the race occasionally, but for the most comprehensive coverage of the season, please visit some of the trust sites indicated on the sidebar.

Like a few others, I think that Les Misérables is the one to watch this season. It might be premature to think so, since the film isn’t even through post-production. However, a big stage musical from the director of The King’s Speech seems like ample Oscar fodder. It also just seems like a great film. Les Mis stirs the most excitement because of Tom Hooper’s newfangled approach to the screen musical: this is an all-singing affair with the songs recorded live during shooting rather than having the actors perform their takes beforehand and lip-sync to the words while filming the action. Les Mis will therefore rely primarily on the strength of its actors and its editor. This approach could work against the film, though, for as anyone who has studied the advent of musicals during the early sound period knows, this method was dispensed with quickly because it makes for an extremely difficult effort in post-production as well as a static film experience. (Simply put: Les Mis will be a bitch to cut.) On the other hand, new technological advances such as wireless mics could help Les Mis avoid singing in long shot (as seems to be the case from clips). Additionally, film buffs might enjoy the sense of honesty and spontaneity in the performances. Hooper is taking an enormous risk and Oscar could reward it if it pays off.

Aside from Les Mis, there are other unseen contenders such as Quentin Tarantino’s Django Unchained, Kathryn Bigelow’s Zero Dark Thirty, and Peter Jackson’s first installment of the Hobbit trilogy (yawn). Steven Spielberg’s Lincoln is also waiting in the wings. I assume it will be good, since it has Daniel Day-Lewis, but I just can’t get excited for a Spielberg film after War Horse. I would like to see him redeem himself, though. With that being said, The Academy went for the lame horse, so Lincoln is probably in contention whether its Spielberg the good or Spielberg the bad.

The Academy has varying taste, so anything can happen. I’ve tried to predict the nominees in the main categories, but please take the bets with a grain of salt. I'm predicting ten Best Pictures nominees because this has been an exceptionally strong year for film already, and support seems to be fairly spread out. (I know that the math suggests that ten nominees is unlikely, but it's not impossible.) Most hunches are based on reviews, buzz, and pedigree. There are also a few names that I’ve decided to plug because they appear in comparatively weaker categories and the strength of their work merits consideration; therefore, if enough people see these films/performances, some contenders might in the mix. Likewise, I've added one or two alternates, just so you know which other names I think are in the running.

I struggled most with the Best Actress category, since that seems to be the most crowded group so far. Many pundits are only putting Keira Knightley as a dark horse, but I disagree: this is career-best work and a challenging role, so I think voters will take note. I also had trouble deciding on the fifth spot in this category. I think it’s a toss-up between Maggie Smith and Hushpuppy, but I think that old favourites will trump young blood. Such is the norm with Oscar.

These predictions do not reflect my personal endorsements. In a just world Christopher Plummer, Tom Courtenay, Greta Gerwig, Nicole Kidman, and Joe Wright would be on the final ballot, so I’ll be crossing my fingers that some of these predictions do not pan out. 2012 has been an excellent year for movies so far, and a crowded field often makes for some big surprises. It can also make for a most boring year, but since there is no clear frontrunner and plenty of contenders, I think that this year’s Oscar race will be extremely loud and incredibly close. 

And please feel free to visit the comments and chime in, whether it's to call me crazy or lend your support to a favourite!

Predictions:

Best Picture

Anna Karenina 

Argo

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Les Misérables

Life of Pi

 Lincoln

The Master

Moonrise Kingdom

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

Alt: Amour, The Hobbit (yawn), The Sessions

Best Director

Ben Affleck, Argo

Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master

Tom Hooper, Les Misérables

Ang Lee, Life of Pi

David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

Alt: Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty; Michael Haneke, Amour

Best Actor

Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

John Hawkes, The Sessions

Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables

Bill Murray, Hyde Park on Hudson

Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

Alt: Denzel Washington, Flight

Best Actress

Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone

Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina

Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

Maggie Smith, Quartet

Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Smashed

Alt: Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha; Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Best Supporting Actor

Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook

Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained

Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master 

Jude Law, Anna Karenina

Alt: Alan Arkin, Argo; Billy Connolly, Quartet; Garrett Hedlund, On the Road

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, The Master

Pauline Collins, Quartet

Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables

Helen Hunt, The Sessions

Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Alt: Helena Bonham Carter, Great Expectations

Best Original Screenplay

Amour, Michael Haneke

Frances Ha, Noah Baumbach and Greta Gerwig

The Master, Paul Thomas Anderson

Moonrise Kingdom, Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola 

Zero Dark Thirty, Mark Boal

Alt: Django Unchained, Quentin Tarantino; Looper, Rian Johnson 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Anna Karenina, Tom Stoppard

Argo, Chris Terrio

The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Ol Parker

The Sessions, Ben Lewis

Silver Linings Playbook, David O. Russell

Alt: Beasts of the Southern Wild, Life of Pi, Lincoln

Best Cinematography

Beasts of the Southern Wild, Ben Richardson

Les Misérables, Danny Cohen

Life of Pi, Claudio Miranda

Lincoln (please lay off the orange filter, Janusz)

The Master, Mihai Malaimare Jr.

Alt: Anna Karenina, Seamus McGarvey, The Dark Knight Rises, Wally Pfister

Best Production Design

Anna Karenina, Sarah Greenwood

Great Expectations, Jim Clay

Les Misérables, Eve Stewart

Moonrise Kingdom, Adam Stockhausen

Prometheus, Arthur Max

Alt: The Hobbit

Best Costumes

Anna Karenina, Jacqueline Durran

Great Expectations, Peter Paul

Les Misérables, Paco Delgado

Lincoln, Joanna Johnston

Snow White and the Hunstman, Colleen Atwood

Alt: The Hobbit

Best Editing

Argo, William Goldenberg

The Hunger Games, Stephen Mirrione, Juliette Welfling

Les Misérables, Chris Dickens

Looper, Bob Ducsay

Silver Linings Playbook, Jay Cassidy

Alt: Beasts of the Southern Wild, Crockett Doob and Affonso Gonçalves; Lincoln, Michael Kahn

Best Score

Anna Karenina, Dario Marianelli

The Dark Knight Rises, Hans Zimmer

Life of Pi, Mychael Danna

Lincoln, John Williams

Moonrise Kingdom, Alexandre Desplat

Alt: Beasts of the Southern Wild, The Master, Johnny Greenwood

Best Foreign Language Film

Amour – Austria

Blancanieves – Spain

Fill the Void - Israel

Lore – Australia

Rebelle – Canada

Best Documentary

The Act of Killing

Central Park Five

The Invisible War

Marley

The Queen of Versailles

Best Hair and Make-up

Great Expectations

The Hobbit

Lincoln

Best Visual Effects

The Avengers

The Dark Knight Rises

The Hobbit

Life of Pi

Prometheus

Best Animated Feature

Brave

Frankenweenie

ParaNorman  

The Rabbi's Cat

 Rise of the Guardians

Best Song

Awaiting list

Best Animated Short

Awaiting shortlist

Best Live Action Short

Awaiting Shortlist

Best Documentary Short

Awaiting Shortlist

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