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Anne Hathaway in Les Misérables |
Festival season is entering its final stretch and Oscar
season is quickly around the corner. Word is that the little gold man didn’t
see his shadow, so campaigning shall begin earlier this year. (Nominations will
be announced on January 10, i.e. the day after final ballots are due for the
Golden Globes, which means that this year could be uglier than ever.) It’s
never too early to try to predict the winners. It’s almost more fun to do so
before some of the biggies have opened, since one’s opinion of a film can often
cloud judgement. (I tend to fall victim to that, as you’ll see below.) I’ll be
offering predictions and chiming in on the race occasionally, but for the most
comprehensive coverage of the season, please visit some of the trust sites
indicated on the sidebar.
Aside from Les Mis,
there are other unseen contenders such as Quentin Tarantino’s Django Unchained, Kathryn Bigelow’s Zero Dark Thirty, and Peter Jackson’s
first installment of the Hobbit trilogy
(yawn). Steven Spielberg’s Lincoln is
also waiting in the wings. I assume it will be good, since it has Daniel
Day-Lewis, but I just can’t get excited for a Spielberg film after War Horse. I would like to see him
redeem himself, though. With that being said, The Academy went for the lame
horse, so Lincoln is probably in
contention whether its Spielberg the good or Spielberg the bad.
The Academy has varying taste, so anything can happen. I’ve
tried to predict the nominees in the main categories, but please take the bets
with a grain of salt. I'm predicting ten Best Pictures nominees because this has been an exceptionally strong year for film already, and support seems to be fairly spread out. (I know that the math suggests that ten nominees is unlikely, but it's not impossible.) Most hunches are based on reviews, buzz, and pedigree. There
are also a few names that I’ve decided to plug because they appear in comparatively
weaker categories and the strength of their work merits consideration;
therefore, if enough people see these films/performances, some contenders might
in the mix. Likewise, I've added one or two alternates, just so you know which other names I think are in the running.
I struggled most with the Best Actress category, since that seems
to be the most crowded group so far. Many pundits are only putting Keira
Knightley as a dark horse, but I disagree: this is career-best work and a
challenging role, so I think voters will take note. I also had trouble deciding
on the fifth spot in this category. I think it’s a toss-up between Maggie Smith
and Hushpuppy, but I think that old favourites will trump young blood. Such is
the norm with Oscar.
These predictions do not reflect my personal endorsements. In
a just world Christopher Plummer, Tom Courtenay, Greta Gerwig, Nicole Kidman,
and Joe Wright would be on the final ballot, so I’ll be crossing my fingers
that some of these predictions do not pan out. 2012 has been an excellent year
for movies so far, and a crowded field often makes for some big surprises. It
can also make for a most boring year, but since there is no clear frontrunner
and plenty of contenders, I think that this year’s Oscar race will be extremely
loud and incredibly close.
And please feel free to visit the comments and chime in, whether it's to call me crazy or lend your support to a favourite!
Predictions:
Best Picture
Argo
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings
Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Alt: Amour, The Hobbit (yawn), The Sessions
Best Director
Ben Affleck, Argo
Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
Tom Hooper, Les Misérables
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
David O. Russell, Silver
Linings Playbook
Alt: Kathryn Bigelow, Zero
Dark Thirty; Michael Haneke, Amour
Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
Bill Murray, Hyde Park
on Hudson
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Alt: Denzel Washington, Flight
Best Actress
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver
Linings Playbook
Maggie Smith, Quartet
Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Smashed
Alt: Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha; Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Best Supporting Actor
Robert DeNiro, Silver
Linings Playbook
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django
Unchained
Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Jude Law, Anna Karenina
Alt: Alan Arkin, Argo; Billy Connolly, Quartet;
Garrett Hedlund, On the Road
Best Supporting
Actress
Amy Adams, The Master
Pauline Collins, Quartet
Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Alt: Helena Bonham Carter, Great Expectations
Best Original
Screenplay
Amour, Michael
Haneke
Frances Ha, Noah
Baumbach and Greta Gerwig
The Master, Paul
Thomas Anderson
Moonrise Kingdom, Wes
Anderson, Roman Coppola
Zero Dark Thirty, Mark Boal
Alt: Django Unchained,
Quentin Tarantino; Looper, Rian
Johnson
Best Adapted
Screenplay
Anna Karenina, Tom
Stoppard
Argo, Chris Terrio
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Ol Parker
The Sessions, Ben
Lewis
Silver Linings
Playbook, David O. Russell
Alt: Beasts of the Southern Wild, Life of Pi, Lincoln
Best Cinematography
Beasts of the Southern Wild, Ben Richardson
Les Misérables,
Danny Cohen
Life of Pi,
Claudio Miranda
Lincoln (please
lay off the orange filter, Janusz)
The Master, Mihai
Malaimare Jr.
Alt: Anna Karenina,
Seamus McGarvey, The Dark Knight Rises,
Wally Pfister
Best Production
Design
Anna Karenina,
Sarah Greenwood
Great Expectations,
Jim Clay
Les Misérables,
Eve Stewart
Moonrise Kingdom,
Adam Stockhausen
Prometheus, Arthur
Max
Alt: The Hobbit
Best Costumes
Anna Karenina,
Jacqueline Durran
Great Expectations,
Peter Paul
Les Misérables,
Paco Delgado
Lincoln, Joanna
Johnston
Snow White and the Hunstman, Colleen Atwood
Alt: The Hobbit
Best Editing
Argo, William
Goldenberg
The Hunger Games,
Stephen Mirrione, Juliette Welfling
Les Misérables,
Chris Dickens
Looper, Bob Ducsay
Silver Linings
Playbook, Jay Cassidy
Alt: Beasts of the Southern Wild, Crockett Doob and Affonso Gonçalves; Lincoln, Michael Kahn
Best Score
Anna Karenina,
Dario Marianelli
The Dark Knight Rises,
Hans Zimmer
Life of Pi,
Mychael Danna
Lincoln, John
Williams
Moonrise Kingdom,
Alexandre Desplat
Alt: Beasts of the Southern Wild, The Master, Johnny
Greenwood
Best Foreign Language
Film
Amour – Austria
Blancanieves –
Spain
Fill the Void -
Israel
Lore – Australia
Rebelle – Canada
Best Documentary
The Act of Killing
Central Park Five
The Queen of
Versailles
Best Hair and Make-up
The Hobbit
Lincoln
Best Visual Effects
The Hobbit
Life of Pi
Best Animated Feature
Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
The Rabbi's Cat
Rise of the Guardians
Best Song
Awaiting list
Best Animated Short
Awaiting shortlist
Best Live Action Short
Awaiting Shortlist
Best Documentary Short
Awaiting Shortlist
Please visit the Oscar Predictions Page on the header bar to see updated predictions, .