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| Academy Award winner Ben Affleck directs Argo |
Oscar predictions: round two. Let’s see what has
happened since round one: Argo opened
(it drew raves), Lincoln
had a special sneak peek (it drew raves), Skyfall premiered
(it drew raves), and the new trailer debuted for the insanely
good-looking Kathryn Bigelow movie Zero
Dark Thirty (it drew raves). Put another way, one movie continued its good
run after the festival circuit, one movie showed that it’s as good on film as
it is on paper, and one movie turned out significantly better than the last
installment of its franchise. All three have found some detractors, but they
seem to have found a solid fan base. Argo
seems like the only real safe bet at this point. Most of the naysayers are
Canadian (i.e.: not Oscar voters) and the film is performing well at the box
office and is generally being received as a well-made crowd-pleaser. Argo is good, old-fashioned Hollywood
and we know that Oscar loves that.
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| Lincoln |
My thoughts on Lincoln
haven’t changed much since round one, although I’ve added Tommy Lee Jones to
the list since his performance seems to be the most widely appreciated part of
the film, even amongst those who very less enthusiastic about Lincoln itself. (I struck out Dwight
Henry.) I still haven’t put Spielberg on the Best Director list even though Lincoln seems like a safe bet for Best
Picture. He’ll be there if Les Mis
tanks, but I think that Ben Affleck is a pretty sure thing, and David O. Russell
may be for Silver Linings Playbook.
Likewise, I think that PTA and The Master
have a very strong fan base: it might not be that big, but I assume there are
enough number one votes to keep it going all year long, regardless of voters’ taste for carrots. On the other hand, there is nothing but a hunch and
two-minutes-and-fifteen-seconds of marketing greatness to put Kathryn Bigelow
in the fifth director’s seat. However, Bigelow has consistently shown that she
has more balls than any man does in Hollywood; moreover, I think that a movie
about the hunt for Bin Laden will resonate strongly this year as opposed to the
days of yore in Lincoln. This year’s
Oscar race could come down to drones versus horses and bayonets.
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| Zero Dark Thirty |
Best Director is the one category I toiled with
most. You’ll notice that my Best Picture predictions haven’t changed. I’m still
skeptical on Skyfall as an Oscar
nominee. I’m sure it will be great, but many critics called Casino Royale “the best Bond film ever”
back in 2006 and it was shut out of the Oscars in a much weaker year. 2006,
however, was when Best Picture remained firmly capped at five nominees. There’s
also the observation that The Academy rarely warms to Bond film outside of the
odd technical nomination—you’d have to look all the way back to Sheena Easton’s
theme from 1981’s For Your Eyes Only
to find a Bond nominee—but the franchise has rarely warranted anything worthy
of an Oscar outside of technical work and songs. (I say this as a true fan of
the series.) Skyfall, however, could land
at least two nominations. One is the title song
by Adele, which could work itself into the annual farce called Best Original
Song. Secondly, the reviews for the film consistently single out Judi Dench’s
performance as M and a recent article by The Telegraph
notes that the producers of Skyfall
will be campaigning for a nomination. Dench could be in the mix since Best
Supporting Actress is easily the thinnest category this year, aside from Helen
Hunt and Amy Adams, who seem like safe bets. Lastly, Dench also has fans from The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, which
could add to her favour.
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| Judi Dench in Skyfall |
Dench probably won’t land a nomination for Best
Actress for Marigold, though, since
the category has some strong leading ladies. I still find it crazy how many
writers call this a weak field. The category is so competitive, actually, that
I’ve been fretting over which of my TIFF favourites to dump for Quvenzhané
Wallis. I still think that Hushpuppy will be relegated to awards for
breakthrough/young performer, but she was apparently quite the charmer at the Hollywood Film Awards,
so you never know if folks will let her move up from the kids’ table. I,
however, think that another of this year’s breakthroughs will hold on in
Hushpuppy’s stead. The response to Mary Elizabeth Winstead’s performance in Smashed has been strong despite the
film’s somewhat disappointing box office, so I’ve kept the nominees as is.
Emayatzi Cornealdi has gained more fans of Middle
of Nowhere since the film’s festival run, but having seen Smashed and Middle of Nowhere back-to-back at TIFF, I just don’t see Winstead
losing out to Cornealdi. Finally, I had placed Jessica Chastain as a predicted
nominee for Zero Dark Thirty after
this week’s “To Lead or Not to Lead” write-up, but it was then announced that
she, too, has a lead role. I almost put her in the top five for Best Actress.
Almost, so maybe next time.
For this time, however, there are a few changes.
Nothing major, aside from some switches here and there. I removed Frances Ha from actress and screenplay since the film has noved to a 2013 release. I’ve also capped my
alternates at five, but feel free to add some in the comments! The nominees
from round one have been archived with the write-up that began the nominations.
As I was then, I’m still holding out for Anna
Karenina in hopes that enough intelligent people respond to the film. If
they don’t we deserve all the crap Hollywood throws at us!
Best Picture
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Best Director
Ben
Affleck, Argo
Paul
Thomas Anderson, The Master
Kathryn
Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Tom
Hooper, Les Misérables
David
O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Alt: Michael Haneke, Amour, Ang Lee, Life of Pi;
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Best Actor
Daniel
Day-Lewis, Lincoln
John
Hawkes, The Sessions
Hugh
Jackman, Les Misérables
Joaquin
Phoenix, The Master
Denzel
Washington, Flight
Alt:
Anthony Hopkins, Hitchcock; Bill Murray, Hyde
Park on Hudson; Omar Sy, TheIntouchables
Best Actress
Marion
Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Keira
Knightley, Anna Karenina
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Maggie
Smith, Quartet
Mary
Elizabeth Winstead, Smashed
Alt:
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty; Emayatzi
Cornealdi, Middle of Nowhere, Ann
Dowd, Compliance; Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Naomi
Watts, The Impossible
Best Supporting Actor
Robert
DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook
Leonardo
DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Philip
Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy
Lee Jones, Lincoln
Jude
Law, Anna Karenina
Alt:
Alan Arkin, Argo; Javier Bardem, Skyfall;
Billy Connolly, Quartet; Dwight
Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild;
Ezra Miller, The Perks of Being a Wallflower
Best Supporting Actress
Amy
Adams, The Master
Judi
Dench, Skyfall,
Helen
Hunt, The Sessions
Maggie
Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Alt:
Helena Bonham Carter, Great Expectations, Pauline
Collins Quartet;
Ann Dowd, Compliance; Sally Field, Lincoln
Best Original Screenplay
Amour, Michael Haneke
Django Unchained, Quentin Tarantino
The Master,
Paul Thomas Anderson
Zero Dark Thirty, Mark Boal
Best Adapted Screenplay
Anna Karenina,
Tom Stoppard
Argo, Chris Terrio
Lincoln, Tony Kushner
Silver Linings Playbook, David O. Russell
Alt:
Beasts of the Southern Wild,
Benh Zeitlan & Lucy Alibar; Life of
Pi, David Magee; The Sessions,
Ben Lewis
Best Cinematography
Beasts of the Southern Wild,
Ben Richardson
Les Misérables, Danny Cohen
Life of Pi, Claudio Miranda
Lincoln, Janusz Kaminski
Zero Dark Thirty, Grieg Fraser
Alt:
Anna Karenina,
Seamus McGarvey, The Dark Knight Rises,
Wally Pfister; The Master,
Mihai Malaimare Jr.; Skyfall, Roger
Deakins
Best Production Design
Anna Karenina,
Sarah Greenwood
Les Misérables, Eve Stewart
Lincoln, Rick Carter
Moonrise Kingdom,
Adam Stockhausen
Prometheus,
Arthur Max
Alt:
Django Unchained, The Hobbit, Great Expectations
Best Costumes
Anna Karenina,
Jacqueline Durran
Django Unchained, Sharen Davis
Les Misérables, Paco Delgado
Lincoln, Joanna Johnston
Best Editing
Argo, William Goldenberg
Lincoln, Michael Kahn
Les Misérables, Chris Dickens
Silver Linings Playbook, Jay Cassidy
Skyfall, Stuart Baird
Alt:
Beasts of the Southern Wild,
Crockett Doob and Affonso Gonçalves; The Hunger Games, Stephen Mirrione, Juliette
Welfling; Looper,
Bob Ducsay; Zero Dark Thirty, William
Goldenberg
Best Score
Anna Karenina,
Dario Marianelli
The Dark Knight Rises,
Hans Zimmer
Life of Pi, Mychael Danna
Lincoln, John Williams
Moonrise Kingdom,
Alexandre Desplat
Best Foreign Language Film
Amour – Austria
Blancanieves – Spain
Fill the Void - Israel
Lore –
Australia
Alt:
The Intouchables (France), Pieta (South Korea)
Best Documentary
The Act of Killing
Central Park Five
How to Survive a Plague
The Queen of Versailles
Best Hair and Make-up
Cloud Atlas
The Hobbit
Lincoln
Best Visual Effects
Cloud Atlas
The Hobbit
Life of Pi
Best
Animated Feature
Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
The
Rabbi's Cat
Rise
of the Guardians
Alt:
Le tableau
Best
Song
Awaiting
list
Best
Animated Short
Awaiting
shortlist
Best
Live Action Short
Awaiting
shortlist
Best
Documentary Short
Are
there any nominees you think could/should enter the race?
