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| Lincoln - The Drama or The Drama-plus? |
Slow and steady wins the race. Not much has changed
since our last survey of the Oscar field, other than Lincoln’s booming opening expansion and Skyfall’s thunderous box office take
overall. (Silver Linings Playbook and Anna Karenina also performed respectably in limited release against strong widely released competition.) Lincoln didn't work for me entirely, but I see why it has such vocal supporters;
however, I’m a big fan of Skyfall, but I’m skeptical its chances as a major Oscar contender. I think that Skyfall can
count on some technical nominations (most likely a cinematography nom for DP
Roger Deakins, or perhaps even a win.) Best Song could be happening, too, if
Adele’s “Skyfall” isn’t disqualified for sampling the original Bond theme by
Monty Norman. The Artist sampled lots
of classic music last year and won, though, so the music branch of The Academy
will look awful foolish if it flip-flops. Another flip-flop could be Steven
Spielberg’s reversal of my opinion that he’s become soft after the woeful War Horse. Lincoln seems to have joined Argo as a safe bet for a Best Picture
nomination. It’s sitting well with critics and seeming to do very well with
audiences; however, it needs a few weeks to show us whether it has the same
legs that Argo does. Ben Affleck’s
film continues to do gangbusters, both commercially and critically. It was
recently announced that Affleck with receive the modern master award at Santa
Barbara, so the fêting of Hollywood’s new prized actor-director has taken one
small step towards Oscar. There are many stats for actors winning Best
Director, but I don’t quite believe that numbers are the best way to play the
Oscar predictions game.
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| Midnight in Paris - My #1 from last year |
For example, if you look at my own history of Top Ten lists, you’ll likely notice a pattern. In the years listed, my #1 film is
often something literary. This trend probably stems from my interest in
adaption and explains why films like Adaptation,
Sideways, The Constant Gardener, Little
Children, Atonement, and Precious ended up on top. Moreover, the
most book savvy film to earn a top spot on my lists is not actually a
page-to-screen effort, for one could argue that Midnight in Paris is the most literary film of them all (save for Adaptation) thanks to its magical throwback
to the bookmakers of the Roaring Twenties. (One could make a similar case for
my 2003 pick The Barbarian Invasions,
which recently replaced past favourite House
of Sand and Fog during a revisit.) After the bookish picks are removed,
we’re left with Black Swan, Rachel Getting Married, Mulholland Dr., and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon. Rachel
Getting Married might be the anomaly in the trends, but Black Swan and Mulholland Dr. are dark art-house mind-benders, while Crouching Tiger has a similar artiness,
not to mention literary pedigree that fits with the aforementioned films. Rachel Getting Married is certainly a
downer, though, and that seems to be a trend in my preferences. There seems to be a kind of restricted variability in my cinematic leanings. So, if I tend
to put a similar kind of film in my number one spot year after year, do Oscar
voters do the same?
I think they might. If one looks at the past Oscar
nominees from a categorical angle, a trend emerges. I realize that any
attempt to classify and label diverse films is a flawed process, so please keep
in mind that these categories are meant to be flexible, just as I grouped Midnight in Paris with a slight
interpretative leap. Each year, the five nominees (or five films with a Best
Director nomination in the years with more than five nominees) generally offer
a guide to Academy taste buds. The Academy tends to like five flavours of ice
cream. They are:
The
Drama: Not the most specific category, The Drama is a
standard film for mature viewers. It's basically the vanilla ice cream of the Oscar nominees. It might offer a big name star and studio
sheen, or it could be a more low-budget affair, but it’s generally the type of
film that can easily be defined as Classical Hollywood Cinema. It has a
beginning, middle, and an end, and it generally tells a story rather than
exciting the mind through form. It’s a fairly digestible kind of enlightened
entertainment. It’s what the average Joe looks for when he goes to Blockbuster
in search of a “good movie.”
The
Drama-plus: Similar to The Drama, the Drama-plus yields
something extra. It might be more aesthetically refined or a bit more
formalist; likewise, it can be more ambitious in the scope of its ideas or
story. The Drama-plus isn’t too provocative, but it’s not for all tastes. Joe
at Blockbuster might not like it, yet discerning viewers probably will.
The
Big Movie: Also synonymous with “The Epic,” “The Event,” “The
Blockbuster,” or “The Major Studio Film.” The Big Movie is that big film you
have been looking forward to all year. Big in budget or massive in scope, the
studios have invested oodles of money in this film, in the form of A-level
talent and production value. It might not always be big in budget, but there is
something titanic at its core.
The
Crowd Pleaser: The Crowd Pleaser is often the most emotionally
compelling film in the bunch. It is generally the most entertaining of the
nominees. The Crowd Pleaser often makes viewers stand up and cheer or cast Audience
Award ballots. It’s the film that connects us all with a universal feel good
message. Fans of The Drama-plus might dismiss The Crowd Pleaser as “slight,”
but only nitpicky fans of cerebral formalism will refuse to be charmed by the
Crowd Pleaser. The Crowd Pleaser often wears the badge of “The Little Movie
That Could.”
The
Art Film: Also synonymous with “The Indie.” The Art Film is
the most variable film in the group. It could be a typical low-budget comedy,
but films of the ‘fo-shizzle’ variety are more likely to pick up the crown of
The Crowd Pleaser and let another favourite emerge from the festival circuit.
The Art Film tends to be the most exciting film in the Oscar race because it
offers viewers something new, aesthetically, narratively, or generically. The
Art film might amass oodles of critics’ prizes, but Oscar wins are scant.
So, if we accept these labels and apply them with a
grain of salt and little elbow grease, let us see which of the past nominees
show a pattern of taste in The Academy. (For the sake of time, I will only go
back to 2000, since that is the same year from which I used myself as a
barometer of taste.)
Best Picture winner
2000
The
Drama: Erin Brockovich
The
Drama-plus: Traffic
The
Big Movie: Gladiator
The
Crowd Pleaser: Chocolat
The
Art Film: Crouching
Tiger, Hidden Dragon
2001
The
Drama: A Beautiful Mind
The
Drama-plus: Gosford
Park
The
Big Movie: The
Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring
The
Crowd Pleaser: Moulin
Rouge!
The
Art Film: In the
Bedroom (also: Moulin Rouge!)
2002
The
Drama: Gangs of New York
The
Drama-plus: The
Hours
The
Big Movie: The
Two Towers (also: Gangs)
The
Crowd Pleaser: Chicago
The
Art Film: The Pianist
2003
The
Drama: Master and Commander: The Far
Side of the World
The
Drama-plus: Mystic
River
The
Big Movie: The
Return of the King
The
Crowd Pleaser: Seabiscuit
The
Art Film: Lost in
Translation
2004
The
Drama: Ray
The
Drama-plus: Million
Dollar Baby
The
Big Movie: The
Aviator
The
Crowd Pleaser: Finding
Neverland
The
Art Film: Sideways
2005
*This might be the year with the most flawed classifications
The
Drama: Capote
The
Drama-plus: Good
Night, and Good Luck
The
Big Movie: Munich
The
Crowd Pleaser: Crash
The
Art Film: Brokeback Mountain
2006
The
Drama: Letters from Iwo Jima
The
Drama-plus: The
Queen
The
Big Movie: The
Departed
The
Crowd Pleaser: Little
Miss Sunshine
The
Art Film: Babel
2007
The
Drama: Michael Clayton
The
Drama-plus: No
Country for Old Men (also: TWBB)
The
Big Movie: There
Will Be Blood
The
Crowd Pleaser: Juno
The
Art Film: Atonement
Or, based on some feedback, it could read:
The
Drama: Michael Clayton
The
Drama-plus: Atonement
The
Big Movie: No
Country for Old Men (also: TWBB)
The
Crowd Pleaser: Juno
The
Art Film: There Will Be Blood
2008
The
Drama: Frost/Nixon
The
Drama-plus: The
Reader
The
Big Movie: The
Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The
Crowd Pleaser: Slumdog
Millionaire
The
Art Film: Milk
2009
*The Ten begins, so films with a Best Director nom
are placed first
The
Drama: Up in the Air |
The Blind Side
The
Drama-plus: Inglourious
Basterds | An
Education
The
Big Movie: Avatar |
District 9 (I realize they’re not the
same in terms of budget)
The
Crowd Pleaser: Precious |
Up, The Blind Side
The
Art Film: The Hurt
Locker | A Serious Man
2010
The
Drama: The Fighter |
127 Hours
The
Drama-plus: The
Social Network | Winter’s
Bone
The
Big Movie: True
Grit | Inception
The
Crowd Pleaser: The
King’s Speech | Toy Story
3
The
Art Film: Black Swan
| The Kids Are All Right
2011
*Slightly complicated again, given the flexibility
of the category
The
Drama: Moneyball, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close (also: The Help)
The
Drama-plus: The
Descendants, Midnight
in Paris
The
Big Movie: Hugo |
War Horse
The
Crowd Pleaser: The
Artist | The Help
The
Art Film: The Tree of
Life
Still with me? Good. As one can see from the winners and nominees, the preferences aren't fixed. They vary and overlap depending on the year, with five Crowd Pleasers leading as winners, followed by three Big Movies, two Drama-plus, and one Drama and Art Film. Then if we accept these trends
in voters’ preferences, we might be able to predict this year as such:
The
Drama: Argo, The Impossible
The
Drama-plus: Lincoln, Zero Dark Thirty, Django Unchained
The
Big Movie: Les
Misérables, Life of Pi,
The Hobbit, Skyfall,
The
Crowd Pleaser: Silver
Linings Playbook, The
Sessions
The
Art Film: The Master,
Beasts of the Southern Wild, Moonrise Kingdom, Anna Karenina, Amour
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| Silver Linings Playbook - The Crowd Pleaser |
Argo
seems like a good contender to win votes from The Drama crowd. It’s
Classical Hollywood Cinema at its finest. It is solid entertainment and fairly
safe. All the forty-year-old men at the video store are sure to like it. Lincoln could be The Drama-plus. It’s
just as straightforward a film as Argo
is, but it’s a bit more ambitious in style and meaning. Moreover, Daniel
Day-Lewis’s finely tuned performance might give it that extra “something else”
that viewers might think is missing from Argo,
as does its encapsulation of American history that echoes today’s President.
The Big Movie looks to be Les Misérables.
It’s that lavish Christmas Day release that many of us have been looking
forward to and it’s been building a steady stream of hype for months. Life of Pi and The Hobbit are close behind, with their big name directors,
dazzling special effects, and ready-made audiences in the form of readers. The
fourth spot, The Crowd Pleaser, is doubtlessly Silver Linings Playbook. It’s an irresistible comedy and it also
has that valuable TIFF endorsement displayed by precursor Crowd Pleasers such
as The King’s Speech, Precious, Slumdog Millionaire and
2007’s TIFF runner-up Juno.
(It would look great for the festival if the Oscar race comes down to Silver Linings Playbook versus this
year’s runner-up, Argo.) Finally, The Master is a pretty safe bet to win
the votes of The Art Film crowd. It might be the most divisive film on the list
(save for Anna), but it built an
ardent group of fans during its successful festival run, so it probably has
whatever mystery number of votes it needs to win one of the guaranteed five
slots.
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| Anna Karenina - The Art Film? |
I’m fairly comfortable that these tastes align, some of these films might not be in the right place. Should Argo or Lincoln be classified as The Big Movie? Do Zero Dark Thirty and Django
Unchained fit the bill of Drama-plus even though they’re sight unseen? Is Les Mis the only Big Movie with a shot
at the Oscars? Will Anna Karenina be
squeezed out from the Art Film crowd, or could it appeal to the discerning fans
of the Drama-plus? Anna Karenina
finally seems to be gaining fans now that it’s been seen in the States, so I’m
still holding out hope that it makes the final cut. Polarizing as it may be,
the people who love it love it. (Smart ones they are.)
With these tastes in mind, I’ve kept my steady list
of ten predicted nominees. Some of the other categories have changed given the
recent surges for Lincoln and such.
It seems that almost everybody likes Sally Field (they really like her!), so
I’ve dropped Dame Judi Dench once again. It also pained me—pained me—to remove Dench’s fellow Brit Maggie Smith from the
leading actress category. Quartet
just hasn’t made the murmur it deserves, but it’s still very early, so it might
come back into play when it opens in December. I’ll cross my fingers that it
does. Finally, I've been going mad over the Best Director category. Now that Steven Spielberg seems to have joined Ben Affleck as a likely contender, I've dropped Kathryn Bigelow from the list. This move seems like madness to me, but Zero Dark Thirty is one of the films that has yet to screen (I think?), so she might jump back when it's not 'sight unseen.' I'm also trying to find room for Ang Lee... might Silver Linings Playbook be a film without a director nom? In that case, could Life of Pi be a Crowd Pleaser?
Without further ado, I’ve reformatted the films
from the tastes into my current soothsaying of the Best Picture list:
Best Picture
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Zero Dark Thirty
Alt:
Amour, The Hobbit, The Sessions
Best Director
Ben
Affleck, Argo
Paul
Thomas Anderson, The Master
Tom
Hooper, Les Misérables
David
O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Steven
Spielberg, Lincoln
Alt: Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty, Michael
Haneke, Amour, Ang Lee, Life of Pi;
Best Actor
Daniel
Day-Lewis, Lincoln
John
Hawkes, The Sessions
Hugh
Jackman, Les Misérables
Joaquin
Phoenix, The Master
Denzel
Washington, Flight
Alt:
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook; Anthony Hopkins, Hitchcock; Omar Sy, The Intouchables
Best Actress
Marion
Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Keira
Knightley, Anna Karenina
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Mary
Elizabeth Winstead, Smashed
Alt:
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty;
Emayatzi Cornealdi, Middle of Nowhere;
Helen Mirren, Hitchcock; Maggie Smith, Quartet; Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Best Supporting Actor
Robert
DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook
Leonardo
DiCaprio, Django Unchained
John
Goodman, Argo
Philip
Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy
Lee Jones, Lincoln
Alt:
Alan Arkin, Argo; Javier Bardem, Skyfall;
Billy Connolly, Quartet;
Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild; Jude
Law, Anna Karenina
Best Supporting Actress
Amy
Adams, The Master
Sally
Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
Helen
Hunt, The Sessions
Maggie
Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Best Original Screenplay
Amour, Michael Haneke
Django Unchained, Quentin Tarantino
The Master,
Paul Thomas Anderson
Zero Dark Thirty, Mark Boal
Best Adapted Screenplay
Anna Karenina,
Tom Stoppard
Argo, Chris Terrio
Lincoln , Tony Kushner
Silver Linings Playbook, David O. Russell
Alt:
Beasts of the Southern Wild,
Benh Zeitlan & Lucy Alibar; Life of
Pi, David Magee; The Sessions,
Ben Lewis; This is 40, Judd Apatow
Best Editing
Argo, William Goldenberg
Beasts of the Southern Wild,
Crockett Doob and Affonso Gonçalves
Lincoln, Michael Kahn
Les Misérables, Chris Dickens
Silver Linings Playbook, Jay Cassidy
Alt:
The Hunger Games, Stephen Mirrione, Juliette
Welfling; Looper,
Bob Ducsay; Skyfall, Stuart Baird; Zero Dark Thirty, William Goldenberg
Best Cinematography
Beasts of the Southern Wild,
Ben Richardson
Life of Pi, Claudio Miranda
Skyfall, Roger Deakins
Zero Dark Thirty, Grieg Fraser
Alt:
Anna Karenina,
Seamus McGarvey; The Dark Knight Rises Wally
Pfister; Les Misérables, Danny Cohen;
The Master,
Mihai Malaimare Jr.;
Best Production Design
Anna Karenina,
Sarah Greenwood
Les Misérables, Eve Stewart
Lincoln, Rick Carter
Moonrise Kingdom,
Adam Stockhausen
Prometheus,
Arthur Max
Best Costumes
Anna Karenina,
Jacqueline Durran
Django Unchained, Sharen Davis
Les Misérables, Paco Delgado
Lincoln, Joanna Johnston
Best Score
Anna Karenina,
Dario Marianelli
The Dark Knight Rises,
Hans Zimmer
Life of Pi, Mychael Danna
Lincoln, John Williams
Moonrise Kingdom,
Alexandre Desplat
Best Foreign Language Film
Amour – Austria
Blancanieves – Spain
Fill the Void - Israel
Lore –
Australia
Best Documentary
Central Park Five
How to Survive a Plague
The Queen of Versailles
Alt: Detropia, Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God
Best Hair and Make-up
The Hobbit
Best Visual Effects
The Hobbit
Life of Pi
Best
Animated Feature
Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
Rise
of the Guardians
Wreck it Ralph
Wreck it Ralph
Alt:
Le tableau, The
Rabbi's Cat
Best
Song
Awaiting
list
Best
Animated Short
Best
Live Action Short
Awaiting
shortlist
Best
Documentary Short
Do
you think Academy tastes repeat themselves? Do your own? Please chime in!
