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| Argo |
It’s time to take a trip to a new round of Oscar predictions
via a layover with the Golden Globes. The most important least-important award
show out there, the Globes matter because, as many smart Oscar pundits have
noted, they’re face time on network TV during the heat of award season. They’re
also something to put in ads and help box office clout, which doesn’t hurt when
movie theatres are as crowded with contenders as they are this year. (On an
interesting related note, The Race makes a good point at The Hollywood Reporter that the Academy could curb the annual
end-of-the-year chaos by having two voting periods—one in the summer and one at
the end of December—and studios would therefore be more likely to spread their
strong films across the year.)
There’s also the question of taste, which is always a
factor, but the Globes tend to veer more towards the mainstream than to the
arties and the indies. (This is definitely a vanilla ice cream crowd.) Moreover,
taste spills into performances, too, so you never know who could be this year’s
Sandra Bullock. I make the point about taste and performances because I
recently revisited Anna Karenina and
one of my family members observed the parallels between Anna Karenina and Nina
Sayers. Once again: If I vote for the same thing every year, others might do
the same.
History often repeats itself, whether it’s a Globe win
followed by an Oscar win. Let’s go category by category and see what fun the
Golden Globes might be spinning this year. Here are predictions for the Golden
Globe nominees, plus an alternate and an FYC vote for an underdog that might
not make the cut.
Best Picture – Drama
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| Life of Pi |
There is no stronger field of mainstream contenders than in
the Best Picture – Drama category. Argo,
for all the reasons discussed here and elsewhere, is a good contender to make a
strong show at the Globes and take a lead on the Oscar race. It’s solid, if
conventional, entertainment, but nobody likes Classical Hollywood Cinema quite
as much as the Hollywood Foreign Press does. They also love Steven
Spielberg—they’ve nominated virtually even Spielberg film for a slew of awards
(even War Horse)—and Lincoln will be no exception since it’s
his most acclaimed film in years. Likewise, Lincoln
is old school Hollywood, but it has a bit more resonance than Argo does, which makes up for what it
might lack in entertainment value.
Third in the roster of mainstream success is Life of Pi, which probably needs the
Globes’ help more than any other major studio release in the Drama field. I
think that Pi will make a strong
showing since director Ang Lee is a favourite of the HFPA. He has won Best
Director twice (for Crouching Tiger,
Hidden Dragon and Brokeback Mountain),
plus a few Best Picture wins (Brokeback,
Sense and Sensibility) and some
success in the foreign category (a win for Crouching
Tiger and a nom for Lust, Caution).
The visual effects and heartwarming tale of Life
of Pi could even make for a surprise win at the Globes, I think. (I really
wish that I’d liked this film as much as I wanted to!)
The other main studio contenders are Flight, Django Unchained, Skyfall
and The Hobbit. I don’t really
see any of the latter three breaking through, but they could land nominations
elsewhere. Flight doesn’t really seem
like a “first choice” kind of film in the face of Argo, Lincoln, and Life of Pi, but it seems like the kind
of film that could make a splash with the Globes à la Ides of March. And lest we forget that random nomination for The Great Debaters – they must really
like Denzel!
Django might
surprise since the Globes were among the smart groups to nominate Pam Grier for
Tarantino’s Jackie Brown and Uma
Thurman and David Carradine for the Kill
Bill movies. Reviews for Django
haven’t really surfaced yet, so there’s not much to go on besides a hunch and its
two nods at the National Board of Review awards, which include a Top Ten
citation. When it comes to early awards, though, Zero Dark Thirty is the newly minted front-runner with wins at the
New York Critics, National Board of Review, and, most recently, the Boston Film
Critics. The Globes are more likely to vote for the Drama than for the
Drama-plus, but I think that the excitement of the new Kathryn Bigelow film
ensures a nomination at the very least. Finally, if the Globes are going to
show some support for independent film, The
Master could come back to life or The
Sessions might find a surprise nomination, as could Beasts of the Southern Wild since it opened in the summer and has
been one of the most buzzed about films of the year. With a small group of
eighty-odd voters, one of these three films needs only a few passionate
supporters to break through the pack. (Or a few gift baskets.)
Predictions for Best
Picture – Drama
Argo
Flight
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
-Alt: The Sessions
-I’m rooting for: Anna
Karenina
Best Picture – Comedy/Musical
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| Silver Linings Playbook |
This category won’t be as exhaustive as drama, since it’s
likely a bake off between Silver Linings
Playbook and Les Misérables. SLP made
me want to dance in the meadow with bunny rabbits and I suspect it did the same
for Globes voters. Eclectic indies also fare better in the comedy category than
in the drama, so I think it’s in. Ditto Les
Mis since the Globes favour musicals: remember the whopping five
nominations for Nine? (Which I quite
like, for the record.) Coming up in the second tier are a trio of ‘old people
movies’: Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Hope Springs, and Quartet. Marigold is one
of the year’s biggest success stories and it’s exactly the kind of crowd
pleaser to win over the Globes. It’s also far more substantial than its trailer
suggests, and the element of surprise always makes a film especially memorable.
The same goes for Hope Springs, which
looks thin in its trailer but packs in a touching story about keeping romance
alive in the golden years. Hope Springs
will probably win votes from the Nancy Meyers crowd, too, which could push it
over the touching geriatric romance of Quartet.
Quartet is one of my favourite films
of the year, but it seems to be getting lost amongst the annual fracas. It
doesn’t help, either, that The Weinstein Company has Silver Linings as well, but they scored nominations for both The Artist and that dog My Week With Marilyn last year… Finally,
the Globes might favour something raunchy (re: that win for The Hangover) and that movie is undoubtedly Ted, which is hard to ignore since it passed The Hangover to become the highest-grossing R-rated comedy of all
time. Like The Hangover, Ted’s award-fling is probably just an
affair with the Globes and won’t make its way to the Oscars. It might squeeze
out indies like Moonrise Kingdom or The Perks of Being a Wallflower, but not
on Oscar night.
Predictions for Best
Picture – Comedy/Musical
The Best Exotic
Marigold Hotel
Hope Springs
Les Misérables
Silver Linings
Playbook
Ted
Alt: Moonrise Kingdom
I’m rooting for: Quartet
Best Actor – Drama
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| Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln |
Perhaps the easiest category to predict, Best Actor – Drama,
will bring a victory for Lincoln’s
Daniel Day-Lewis. He’ll compete with Denzel Washington and John Hawkes for
sure, and probably Joaquin Phoenix. That fifth spot will likely go to Anthony
Hopkins for Hitchcock, which seems
like a real “Globes movie.” I’m a bit surprised that Hopkins is competing here,
since I thought Hitchcock was a
comedy. (Variety lists Hitchcock as a drama.) Was it not supposed to be funny? Alternatively, will
obvious dramatists make nominees out of James Bond be a nominee or one of the Django stars?
Predictions for Best
Actor – Drama
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
John Hawkes, The
Sessions
Anthony Hopkins, Hitchcock
Joaquin Phoenix, The
Master
Denzel Washington, Flight
-Alt: Christoph Waltz, Django
Unchained
-I’m rooting for: Christopher Plummer in Barrymore (but that will never happen)
Best Actress – Drama
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| Jessica Chastain in Zero Dark Thirty |
This category is not quite as easy to predict as Best Actor
since most of the contenders are in indies. Jessica Chastain is probably the
frontrunner for her much lauded work in Zero
Dark Thirty, since she won Best Actress at the National Board of Review and
at Boston. On the other hand, I don’t think that the surprise winner of the New
York critics’ award, Rachel Weisz in The
Deep Blue Sea, will land a nomination. This performance, as good as it is,
seemed like an afterthought in the award race. The film itself is rather
forgettable, so I think that if the HFPA are going to celebrate the leading
lady of a period piece, they’ll vote for the year’s best female performance:
Keira Knightley in Anna Karenina. It
might be bias, but the Globes have been supportive of her collaborations with
Joe Wright and they might nominate her even if the film doesn’t win them over.
Marion Cotillard also deserves some votes for her stunning work in Rust & Bone, and I think she’ll get
in since she won at the Globes for La vie
en rose and was nominated for Nine.
Those two nominations (and one win) show that Cotillard has jumped the hurdle
that often works against foreign actresses. Emmanuelle Riva, however, might not
be as secure for her acclaimed performance in Amour, but she could find some wiggle room in the face of scattered
competition. (However, at 85 years old, one hopes that she can be considered
established.) Riva might miss out to youngster Quvenzhané Wallis, but it
wouldn’t be a case of ageism. Q-Dubs deserves recognition for her work in Beasts of the Southern Wild and she probably
offers Chastain’s stiffest competition. They should decide the vote with a
crab-eating contest. Beast it, Jessica!
Predictions for Best
Actress - Drama
Jessica Chastain, Zero
Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard, Rust
& Bone
Keira Knightley, Anna
Karenina
Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts
of the Southern Wild
-Alt: Naomi Watts, The
Impossible
-I’m rooting for: Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Smashed
Best Actor – Comedy/Musical
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| Hugh Jackman in Les Misérables |
Best Actor – Comedy/Musical features an important
head-to-head match between the two actors who could join the Best Actor line-up
at the Oscars: Hugh Jackman in Les
Misérables and Bradley Cooper in Silver
Linings Playbook. I can’t comment on Jackman’s performance since I haven’t
seen Les Mis yet, but Cooper deserves
credit for showing an impressive side to his skills. He’s just as funny in SLP as he is in The Hangover, but he displays some dramatic depth that we haven’t
seen before. The category will probably be filled with another actor from a
Best Pic nominee, Tommy Lee Jones in Hope
Springs. On the other hand, Hyde Park
on Hudson seems like a dead animal that has been collecting flies since it
was trampled on the festival circuit, but Bill Murray could pop in for his turn
as FDR. (Why have one crotchety old man when you can have two?) The fifth spot
could then be one of three men who need a boost for the Oscar race: Jack Black
in Bernie, Omar Sy in The Intouchables, and Tom Courtenay in Quartet. I think that Black is probably
in for his darkly funny turn as the effeminate homicidal undertaker in Bernie, while Sy could prove to be this
year’s Marion Cotillard or Jean Dujardin and find success in America after a
win in France. Courtenay, finally, deserves the spot for his subtle work in Quartet, but he also faces some
competition from Marigold Brit Bill
Nighy.
Predictions for Best
Actor – Comedy/Musical
Jack Black, Bernie
Bradley Cooper, Silver
Linings Playbook
Hugh Jackman, Les
Misérables
Tommy Lee Jones, Hope
Springs
Bill Murray, Hyde Park
on Hudson
-Alt: Omar Sy, The
Intouchables
-I’m rooting for: Tom Courtenay, Quartet
Best Actress – Comedy/Musical
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| Maggie Smith in Quartet |
Jennifer Lawrence has this race wrapped up in ribbons. She
can’t lose for her spunky, sassy performance in Silver Linings Playbook. The rising star will probably leave
veteran actresses Judi Dench, Maggie Smith, and Meryl Streep wheezing in her
dust. The three actresses are certainly strong contenders, though: Dench might
prove herself a dark horse in the Oscar race, Meryl Streep deserves to earn her
27th Globe nomination, and Maggie Smith could hit a high note and win for
her delightfully diva-esque turn in Quartet.
(That F-bomb alone will earn Maggie some well deserved votes.) Spot number five, then, could
follow the Best Picture trend and offer a leading lady from more R-rated fun. I
think it might be Leslie Mann in This is
40, who didn’t really get enough credit for her supporting role in Knocked Up. (I haven’t seen This is 40 yet.) Alternatively, might the
Globes prop up one an indie underdog like Jennifer Westfeldt (Friends with Kids), Michelle Williams, (Take
This Waltz) or Emma Watson (The Perks
of Being a Wallflower)?
Predictions for Best
Actress – Comedy/Musical
Judi Dench, The Best
Exotic Marigold Hotel
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver
Linings Playbook
Leslie Mann, This is
40
Maggi Smith, Quartet
Meryl Streep, Hope
Springs
-Alt: Emma Watson, The
Perks of Being a Wallflower
-I’m rooting for: Michelle Williams, Take This Waltz
Best Supporting Actor
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| Tommy Lee Jones in Lincoln |
This category might be worth keeping an eye on. Presumed
frontrunner Tommy Lee Jones will nab his second nomination of the show for
playing a crusty old man in Lincoln.
He might also be joined by safe bets Philip Seymour Hoffman and Robert DeNiro.
(It would be nice to see DeNiro back in the race.) The ones to watch for,
however, are Leonardo DiCaprio and Matthew McConaughey. Leo’s nomination will
show if the Django buzz is real or if
it was just convincing hype by people who were excited by the juicy snippets in
the trailer. McConaughey, on the other hand, earned support this summer for Magic Mike, which seemed like a hopeful
novelty until he was the surprise winner at the New York Film Critics. Any of
the actors, though, could be squeezed out by hopefuls such as Russell Crowe (Les Mis), Eddie Redmayne (Les Mis), Billy Connolly (Quartet), Ezra Miller (The Perks of Being a Wallflower), Tom Wilkinson (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)
Alan Arkin (Argo), John Goodman (Argo) and John Goodman (Flight).
Predictions for Best
Supporting Actor:
Robert DeNiro, Silver
Linings Playbook
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django
Unchained
John Goodman, Argo
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The
Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
-Alt: Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike
-I’m rooting for: Connolly and Miller.
Best Supporting Actress
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| Anne Hathaway in Misérables |
I think that this category will probably have the most
overlap with the Oscar nominations. Anne Hathaway will presumably win for Les Mis now that screenings have
confirmed that she’s every bit as good as people expected her to be. Next in
line is undoubtedly Sally Field for her divisive turn in Lincoln (I’m on the ‘nay’ side), but the field is small, so Field
is in. Helen Hunt, meanwhile, will almost certainly make a comeback for her
strong performance in The Sessions.
These are, I think, almost sure things, as is Maggie Smith’s scene-stealing
performance in The Best Exotic Marigold
Hotel (with Quartet and Downton Abbey, Smith will probably have
one of the highest tallies of the nominations!). Finally, Amy Adams could sneak
in if enough people in the Hollywood Foreign Press liked The Master. I think that she is the one contender who might not appear
at the Globes but will be there on Oscar night, simply for the nature of the
film. In her stead could be Skyfall’s
Judi Dench, another of the Les Mis ladies,
or Quartet’s heartbreaker, Pauline Collins.
Predictions for Best
Supporting Actress:
Judi Dench, Skyfall
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les
Misérables
Helen Hunt, The
Sessions
Maggie Smith, The Best
Exotic Marigold Hotel
-Alt: Amy Adams, The
Master
-I’m rooting for: Pauline Collins, Quartet
Best Director
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| Kathryn Bigelow |
Like Best Supporting Actress, I think there will be
considerable overlap between the Globes and the Oscars, but I don’t think they will
match entirely. Ang Lee will find favour with the Globes, although I think that
Life of Pi will earn one of those
directorless Best Picture nominations at the Oscars. (He will be bumped out by Paul
Thomas Anderson on the Academy ballots.) Spielberg, Affleck, and Bigelow will
probably duke it out for the win in both shows, with David O. Russell back in
the underdog spot he wanted before his film triumphed at TIFF. Tom Hooper might
be in, but early reviews for Les Mis
frequently criticize the style of his approach for having too many static
close-ups. Are these hints that Hooper might miss out at the Oscars, or is this
simply payback from critics who are still bitter about the triumph of The King’s Speech over The Social Network?
Predictions for Best
Director:
Ben Affleck, Argo
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero
Dark Thirty
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
David O. Russell, Silver
Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
-Alt: Tom Hooper, Les
Misérables
-I’m rooting for: Joe Wright, Anna Karenina
Best Screenplay
It will be originals versus adaptations and everyone will lose
to Tony Kushner. Argo, Silver Linings Playbook, and Zero Dark Thirty will probably add to their tallies, as could Life of Pi. Moonrise Kingdom might surprise here (and maybe in the comedy
category overall), although it can expect an Oscar nomination regardless when
the field is split it two.
Predictions for Best
Screenplay
Argo by Chris
Terrio
Life of Pi by
David Magee
Lincoln by Tony
Kushner
Silver Linings
Playbook by David O. Russell
Zero Dark Thirty
by Mark Boal
-Alt: Moonrise Kingdom
by Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola
-I’m rooting for: Anna
Karenina by Tom Stoppard.
Best Score
Who knows? I feel like the Globes often vote for the film as
much as they do the music. In that case, Argo
might find room with fellow Best Pic’ers Life of Pi (which has great music) and Lincoln (which does not). I think that the Globe-trotters will surprise
by nominating the Cloud Atlas sextet,
which anyone who saw Cloud Atlas must
appreciate regardless of their opinion of the film itself. Finally, the fun,
zany kettledrums of Moonrise Kingdom
will bring another well-deserved nomination to Alexandre Desplat, who also
scored Argo, which could work against
the nomination for Affleck’s film and make room for, say, Thomas Newman (Skyfall) or one of this year’s animated
films (they usually nab at least one spot).
Predictions for Best
Score
Argo, Alexandre
Desplat
Cloud Atlas,
Reinhold Heil, Johnny Klimek, Tom Tykwer
Life of Pi,
Mychael Danna
Lincoln, John
Williams
Moonrise Kingdom,
Alexandre Desplat
-Alt: Thomas Newman, Skyfall
-I’m rooting for: Anna
Karenina, Dario Marianelli.
Best Song
Adele for the win!
“Abraham’s Daughter,” The
Hunger Games
“Breath of Life,” Snow White and the Huntsman
“Skyfall,” Skyfall
“Suddenly,” Les Mis
“Touch the Sky,” Brave
-Alt: “Midnight Run,” Lawless
Best Foreign Language Film
Unlike the Academy Awards, the Golden Globes do not require
official submissions from countries. This openness, one area in which the
Globes outdo the Oscars, means that a country can have multiple nominees. France’s
Oscar submission The Intouchables could
compete against the film France should have sent, Rust & Bone. There’s even room for the French co-pro Holy Motors! France’s triple threat will
compete against for Michael Haneke’s Cannes winner Amour and, hopefully, Canada’s little darling Rebelle, which could face competition from Xavier Dolan’s Laurence Anyways.
Amour,
Austria/Germany
Holy Motors,
France/Germany
The Intouchables,
France
Rust & Bone,
France
War Witch, Canada
-Alt: No, Spain
-I’m rooting for: Lore,
Australia/Germany
Best Animated Film
Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
Rise of the Guardians
Wreck it Ralph
*I really need to start playing catch-up on this category!
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
Rise of the Guardians
Wreck it Ralph
*I really need to start playing catch-up on this category!
The Golden Globe nominations will be announced December 13 at 8am. Will any of them match the Oscar nominations, which come January 10th, just three days before the winners of the Globes are announced? Check out the full update on the Oscar Predictions page! (Well, not really 'full', as there are only a few changes.)
Are there any zany Globes picks that you would like to
predict?
