Like the socialites in Anna Karenina, we watch the great ones fall. |
Is this a more accurate snapshot of the awards race? |
It feels a bit different this year with the critics’ prizes,
however, thanks to the new level of transparency given to the votes via social
media. On one hand, it seemed like the critics were trying to engage with the
public and embrace the awards frenzy; on the other hand, some critics gave the
sense that they were more concerned in upping their Klout ranking than in
acknowledging the best work of the year. I don’t want the online antics of an
unprofessional few to tarnish the important exposure that awards can bring to
quality work, but it’s hard to look the other way when people are trading votes
like baseball cards. “I’ll swap you Emmanuelle Riva for Denis Lavant,” teased the buzzmakers. I would never sell out Anna
Karenina to Argo (as much as I
like Ben Affleck's film) simply to avoid giving Spielberg another prize, but that’s just me. I don't have strong feelings against Lincoln, so observing the race from a detached perspective makes the whole process seem bizarre. (What are people trying to prove?) I
thought the point of these annual affairs was to champion the films you love, not to squish the films you didn't like.
The obvious advocacy and one-upmanship of the critics groups
looked especially thin once the main nominations of the year were unveiled with
the Critics’ Choice Awards,
the Screen Actors Guild Awards, and the Golden Globes all presenting their
nominations last week. Lincoln
dominated the field by setting a record for Critics’ Choice nominations and by
earning SAG and Globe nominations in every category in which it was eligible.
(It could have nabbed an extra supporting actor citation or two, but Tommy Lee
Jones is such a heavy favourite to win that one can hardly say the film came up
short.) The early critical favourite, Zero
Dark Thirty, also did well with four Golden Globe nominations, a slew of
Critics’ Choices, and a SAG mention for leading actress Jessica Chastain. Some
speculation has been made that Zero Dark
Thirty is in trouble since it missed the SAG category for Best Cast, but
the film was
reportedly sent to voters quite late, so the fact that Chastain still
managed to get in bodes well. I also didn’t expect it to win a cast prize,
since there are many ensemble driven films this year. (I correctly predicted
the five SAG casts—Argo, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Lincoln,
Les Mis, and Silver Linings Playbook—but I can’t say the same for my Golden
Globe guesses…)
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The Master bides its time. |
If any other films received a boost in the early rounds,
they were Django Unchained (which
barely started screening until crunch time), The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Silver Linings, Les Mis.
They only major thing that the latter two missed was a Best Director nomination
at the Globes. Ang Lee earned that spot for Life
of Pi, as I guessed in my Globe predix, but he could be the odd man out come
Oscar time since he has a better track record with the Globes than with the
Oscars. If any films missed out with the early bird prizes, they were Anna Karenina, The Dark Knight Rises, and The
Hobbit. (All three were shut out aside from the odd arts/craft category.)
If any films are sitting level at this point, they are The Sessions and The Master.
John Hawkes and Helen Hunt showed that they have many fans of their work in The Sessions even if the film itself
isn’t winning any top votes. (It could earn a screenplay nomination, too.) The Master admittedly took a bit of a
hit at the SAG since Philip Seymour Hoffman was nominated but leading man
Joaquin Phoenix and supporting actress Amy Adams were snubbed. All three were
nominated at the Globes and at the Critics’ Choice, though, and the film did
get in with the critics, so I think it can hang in until the very end as Tree of Life did when it missed many of the early awards. Finally, Michael Heike’s Amour looks to be the wild card of the season, since it’s making astrong showing on Top Ten lists and in critics’ prizes. I think that Amour and The Master appeal to a similar crowd, namely those whose taste
tends to wander outside of the mainstream (although I say this without having
seen Amour), and I think they will duke it
out throughout the season.
A few weeks ago, I thought that the votes could go as such:
The
Drama: Argo, The Impossible
The
Drama-plus: Lincoln, Zero Dark Thirty, Django Unchained
The
Big Movie: Les
Misérables, Life of Pi,
The Hobbit, Skyfall,
The
Crowd Pleaser: Silver
Linings Playbook, The
Sessions
The
Art Film: The Master,
Beasts of the Southern Wild, Moonrise Kingdom, Anna Karenina, Amour
This table of taste buds is based on the Academy’s history,
not on the bipolar fanfare of the precursor circus. (I.e.: candy apples for the
HFPA, French-speaking clowns for the critics.) However, the prizes show some
inkling of preference (and effective campaigning), so I revise it as such:
The
Drama: Argo, The Impossible
The
Drama-plus: Lincoln, Zero Dark Thirty, Django Unchained
The
Big Movie: Les
Misérables, Life of Pi,
The Hobbit, Skyfall
The
Crowd Pleaser: Silver
Linings Playbook, The Best
Exotic Marigold Hotel, The Sessions
The
Art Film: The Master,
Beasts of the Southern Wild, Moonrise Kingdom, Amour, Anna Karenina
I would be most comfortable with predicting Argo to win at this point. I would put Lincoln close behind, but I'm a big Bigelow fan and I hope to get behind her film when I can see it. (PS: have you seen the exciting new trailer?) Argo seems like a default second choice
for many voters, and it’s been one of the few films to make it through the
season without entailing much backlash, disappointment, or resentment. It’s
entertaining, well-made escapism and its politics don’t seem to bother anyone
aside from a handful of Canadians. Likewise, it’s been such a strong year for independent
movies that support might be scattered among films that were less widely seen.
It still feels too early to predict anything, really, since the season can turn
once the Globes are handed out and the other guilds weigh in during the trapeze
act of ring two.
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Rachel Weisz in The Deep Blue Sea |
As for performers, the races seem to be playing out
as expected, aside from the snubbing of Keira Knightley and the revival of Rachel Weisz.
Perhaps the costume drama crowd just preferred The Deep Blue Sea to Anna Karenina.
(I love Rachel Weisz, so there are no hard feelings... she was criminally overlooked last year for her work in The Whistleblower.) It’s hard to read too much into the actress race since Beasts of the Southern Wild was
deemed ineligible for SAG awards because it used non-union
actors. (Has an actress ever received so much press for not being eligible for
an award?) However, SAG nominees Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty), Jennifer
Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook), Marion Cotillard (Rust & Bone) and Naomi Watts (The Impossible) showed up at the Globes and the Critics’ Choice, so
they appear to be the leaders of the pack. Helen Mirren (Hitchcock) and Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
seem to be kicking around, too, but I think that Q-Dubs will overthrow her
elders unless she finds herself caught between the devil and the deep blue sea of established contenders. The actor race seems clearer, with Daniel Day-Lewis in the lead and
with John Hawkes and Denzel Washington seeming safe, and with Bradley Cooper and
Hugh Jackman joining them on all the major lists. Joaquin Phoenix might have
missed with the SAG, but he’s earning far more shout-outs on year-end lists
than most of the other leading men of 2012.
The supporting categories are more entertaining thanks to
the appearance of Nicole Kidman. It wasn’t until last year’s SAG announcement that
Demian Bichir became a legitimate contender for A Better Life and, like The
Paperboy, his film wasn’t widely seen, nor especially well liked by those
who saw it. ( still can’t help but wonder if The Paperboy would have had a better life if it premiered in Toronto
instead of in Cannes.
The Paperboy shows
that it’s important not to write off a film’s chances this early in the season .It’s not yet time for anyone to yell “Ar-go f*ck yourself!” to the voters,
though, since Oscar nomination ballots are due before any of the awards are
handed out for the major prizes.
The magic tricks of the critics’ groups are really just a distraction from
what’s going on behind the scenes. My main caveat with all the Oscar buzz is to
include a clause that says, “If Extremely Loud
& Incredibly Close can be nominated…” Therefore, if the Academy can
nominate a film that missed with the critics, bombed at the box office, and was
ignored by most of the industry, we can conclude that any film is still a
contender.
New predictions
*New/moved
Best Picture
Django Unchained*
Les Misérables
Zero Dark Thirty
Alt: Amour
Best Director
Ben
Affleck, Argo
Paul
Thomas Anderson, The Master
Kathryn
Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
David
O’Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Steven
Spielberg, Lincoln
Alt: Michael Haneke, Amour; Tom Hooper, Les
Misérables; Ang Lee, Life of Pi;
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained*
Best Actor
Daniel
Day-Lewis, Lincoln
John
Hawkes, The Sessions
Hugh
Jackman, Les Misérables
Joaquin
Phoenix, The Master
Denzel
Washington, Flight
Alt:
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Best Actress
Jessica
Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Marion
Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Jennifer
Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Naomi
Watts, The Impossible*
Best Supporting Actor
Alan
Arkin, Argo*
Robert
DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook
Philip
Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy
Lee Jones, Lincoln
Christoph
Waltz, Django Unchained*
Alt:
Javier Bardem, Skyfall; Leonardo
DiCaprio, Django Unchained*; John
Goodman, Argo; Dwight
Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Best Supporting Actress
Amy
Adams, The Master
Sally
Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
Helen
Hunt, The Sessions
Maggie
Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Best Original Screenplay
Amour, Michael Haneke
Django Unchained, Quentin Tarantino
The Master,
Paul Thomas Anderson
Zero Dark Thirty, Mark Boal
Best Adapted Screenplay
Argo,
Chris Terrio
Life of Pi,
David Magee*
Lincoln ,
Tony Kushner
Silver Linings Playbook,
David O’Russell
Alt:
Anna Karenina,
Tom Stoppard*; Beasts of the Southern Wild,
Benh Zeitlan & Lucy Alibar; The Sessions,
Ben Lewis
Best Editing
Argo,
William Goldenberg
Les Misérables, Chris Dickens
Silver Linings Playbook,
Jay Cassidy
Zero Dark Thirty,
William Goldenberg and Dylan Tichenor
Alt:
Beasts of the Southern Wild,
Crockett Doob and Affonso Gonçalves, The Hunger Games, Stephen Mirrione, Juliette
Welfling; Looper,
Bob Ducsay; Skyfall,
Stuart Baird;
Best Cinematography
Les Misérables, Danny Cohen*
Skyfall,
Roger Deakins
Zero Dark Thirty, Grieg Fraser
Alt:
Anna Karenina,
Seamus McGarvey; Beasts of the Southern Wild,
Ben Richardson*; The Master,
Mihai Malaimare Jr.
Best Production Design
Anna Karenina,
Sarah Greenwood
Les Misérables, Eve Stewart
Moonrise Kingdom,
Adam Stockhausen
Prometheus,
Arthur Max
Best Costumes
Anna Karenina,
Jacqueline Durran
Django Unchained, Sharen Davis
Great Expectations, Beatrix
Pasztor
Les Misérables, Paco Delgado
Best Score
Anna Karenina,
Dario Marianelli
Life of Pi,
Mychael Danna
Alt:
Beasts of the Southern Wild,
Dan Romer and Benh Zeitlin*, The Dark Knight Rises, The Master, Skyfall
Best Foreign Language Film
Amour – Austria
Fill the Void – Israel
Kon-tiki, Norway*
Lore –
Australia
Best Documentary
The House I Live In
How to Survive a Plague
Best Hair and Make-up
The Hobbit
Best Visual Effects
The Hobbit
Best
Animated Feature
Brave
Frankenweenie
Rise
of the Guardians
Wreck it Ralph
Wreck it Ralph
Alt:
Le tableau, The Rabbi's Cat
Best
Song
“Everybody Needs a Best Friend” by Norah Jones, from Ted*
“Learn Me Right” by Mumford and Sons from Brave*
“Everybody Needs a Best Friend” by Norah Jones, from Ted*
“Learn Me Right” by Mumford and Sons from Brave*
“Skyfall”
by Adele & Paul Epworth from Skyfall
“Suddenly” by C.-M. Schönberg, A. Boublil, H. Kretzmer from Les Miserables
“Touch the Sky” from Brave
“Suddenly” by C.-M. Schönberg, A. Boublil, H. Kretzmer from Les Miserables
“Touch the Sky” from Brave
Best
Animated Short
Best
Live Action Short
(Reviewed:
The Factory)
Best
Documentary Short