Canadian Screen Awards Predictions

Sarah Polley, Best Director of 2012?

The Oscar nominations stunned us by snubbing Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow, the perceived frontrunners of the Best Director race, but awards fans are in for a shocker come Tuesday’s announcement of the nominees for the Canadian Screen Awards. One highly touted Canadian name of 2012 is guaranteed to be absent from the Best Director line-up. That name is Sarah Polley, who recently nabbed the $100 000 prize for Best Canadian Film at the Toronto Film Critics’ awards for her brilliant documentary Stories We Tell. Unlike Bigelow and Affleck, however, Polley won’t be the victim of a baffling cold shoulder, although rumours abound that Academy members were put off by a graphic scene in which Polley waterboards one of her subjects in order to learn her family secrets. Stories We Tell simply isn’t eligible for the top prizes because it is a documentary. Under the rules and regulations for the Canadian Screen Awards, only feature length dramas can compete for arts and crafts awards. (See page 13.) I’m disappointed that the best Canadian film of 2012 can’t receive the recognition it deserves due to a technicality, but at least it has a strong chance in the feature documentary category, which boasts some of the strongest Canadian contenders of the year.

Overall, though, the newly revamped Canadian Screen Awards, which now combine both the former Genie Awards for film and Gemini Awards for television, are well-regulated to ensure clarity and fairness to help recognize Canadian films. Predicting the names that will appear in a CSA announcement is awfully tricky, however, since the eligibility is open to films that have screened theatrically as well as those that have toured the festival circuit. (A screening at a minimum of two approved festivals is required.) This means that a yet-to-be distributed film like Home Again could add some little golden logos to its posters to help with a release, while a festival prizewinner like Picture Day might wait to compete next year after it has gained popularity through distribution.

Jennifer Hudson: not a contender for Winnie?

Additionally, the tricky nature of Canadian co-production makes tracking down the eligible contenders even more difficult. Majority co-productions are fair game in the categories, but minority co-productions (films where Canadian investment is less than 50%) are subject to inspection. The rules note, “Minority co-productions are eligible to be nominated for Best Motion Picture as are the craft and performance categories in those films in which Canadians contribute. Where, however, the director and/or screenwriter(s) are Canadian, a minority co-production will be deemed a majority Canadian co-production for the purposes of eligibility in all categories of the film awards.” This means that one must investigate the nationality of the filmmaker to determine eligible contenders. Close inspection reveals, for example, that Elias Koteas and Wendy Crewson can be nominated for Winnie, but Jennifer Hudson and Terrence Howard cannot because director Darrell Root is South African. On the other hand, Melissa Leo can be nominated for her excellent work in Francine since writer/directors Brian M. Cassidy and Melanie Shatzky are Canucks. One can expect plenty of top-level Hollywood names, though - could Canada be the place to make an award-winning actor out of Robert Pattinson?

Will David Cronenberg be in the running for his 6th Best Director prize?

The nominees for the Canadian Screen Awards are much harder to predict than the Oscars, though, since the Canadian industry doesn’t recognize its work as abundantly as Hollywood does. Regardless of an absence of shameless self-promotion, festivals and a few critics’ prizes help tip off the favourites. I assume that the awards will see a run-off between Canada’s Oscar nominee Rebelle and films by popular Canadian directors David Cronenberg, Deepa Mehta, and Xavier Dolan. It would be the first Best Picture or Director win for Mehta and Dolan, but 2012 could bring David Cronenberg his sixth prize for Best Director.

Kudos don’t really help, though, since it all depends if a film was submitted or not. In addition to the familiar names that always appear at Canadian film awards, however, the Genies often introduce a number of films that I haven’t even heard of on nomination day, which shows both the valuable attention that awards can bring as well as the pitiable exhibition of Canadian films in Canadian theatres. I still haven’t been able to see the 2010 Best Picture nominee 10½! What makes the Canadian Screen Awards even more unpredictable this year is the rule that the Best Motion Picture category, like the Oscars, allows for a flexible number of 5-10 nominees. (See the footnote on page 15 of the CSA rules.) This switch is just as hard to guess, since the nominations are decided by a committee, as opposed to the balloting at the Oscars.

Overall, though, 2012 was a good year for Canadian film, so the Canadian Screen Awards probably won’t be as derided as the Oscar nominations. For purposes of entertainment and discussion on Canadian film, let’s try to predict the awards formerly known as the Genies!

Best Picture:

Blackbird

Camion

Cosmopolis

Goon

Lawrence Anyways

Midnight’s Children

My Awkward Sexual Adventure

Rebelle

Alt: All That You Possess, Inch’Allah

Best Director:

David Cronenberg, Cosmopolis

Xavier Dolan, Laurence Anyways

Deepa Mehta, Midnight’s Children

Kim Nguyen, Rebelle

Raphaël Ouellette, Camion

Alt: Jeremy Buxton, Blackbird; Michael Dowse, Goon

Best Actor:

Robert Pattinson, Cosmopolis

Christopher Plummer, Barrymore

Julien Poulin, Camion

Melvil Poupard: Laurence Anyways

Seann William Scott, Goon

Alt: Caleb Landry Jones, Antiviral; Samuel L. Jackson, The Samaritan

Best Actress:

Eveylne Brochu, Inch’Allah

Suzanne Clément, Laurence Anyways

Emily Hampshire, My Awkward Sexual Adventure

Melissa Leo, Francine

Rachel Mwanza, Rebelle

Alt: Laurence Laboeuf, Foreverland; Stéphanie Lapointe, Liverpool

Best Supporting Actor:

Jay Baruchel, Goon

Paul Giamatti, Cosmopolis

Serge Kanyinda, Rebelle

Luke Kirby, The Samaritan

Liev Schreiber, Goon

Alt: Demián Bichir, Foreverland

Best Supporting Actress:

Nathalie Baye, Laurence Anyways

Seema Biswas, Midnight’s Children

Sarah Gadon, Cosmopolis (or Antiviral)

Alison Pill, Goon

Marisa Tomei, Inescapable

Alt: Samantha Morton, Cosmopolis

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Cosmopolis

Goon

The Lesser Blessed

Midnight’s Children

Best Original Screenplay:

All That You Possess

Blackbird

Camion

Laurence Anyways

Rebelle

Alt: Inch’Allah

Best Documentary:

China Heavyweight

Revolution

Stories We Tell

West Wind: The Vision of Thom Thomsom

The World Before Her

Alt: Payback

Best Film Editing:

Cosmopolis

Inescapable

Laurence Anyways

Liverpool

Midnight’s Children

Alt: Antiviral

Best Cinematography:

Camion

Laurence Anyways

Mad Ship

Midnight’s Children

Rebelle

Alt: 388 Arletta Ave, Inch’Allah

Best Art Direction:

Antiviral

Cosmopolis

Mad Ship

Midnight’s Children

Resident Evil: Retribution

Alt: Inch’Allah

Best Costumes:

Burlesque Assassins

Laurence Anyways

Mad Ship

Midnight’s Children

Roller Town

Alt: Inch’Allah

Best Score:

Camion

Cosmopolis

Hard Core Logo 2

Laurence Anyways

Midnight’s Children

Best Sound

Antiviral

Cosmopolis

House at the End of the Street

Inescapable

Resident Evil: Retribution

Best Animated Short:

Bydlo

Edmond was a Donkey

MacPherson

Nightingales in December

Best Live Action Short:

Crackin’ Down Hard

Frost

Herd Leader

Keep a Modest Head

When You Sleep

I’m probably going to do terribly at these, but feel free to share any predictions or hopeful nominees!

The nominations for the Canadian Screen Awards will be announced via livestream on the Academy website, Tuesday, January 15 at 10:00 am.