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| Richard Parker, like Uggie, received no love from the SAG. |
I am completely directionless this Oscar season and I kind
of like the feeling. Like Pi, I am stranded, hopelessly adrift with little more
than a prayer and a hungry feline in my lifeboat as we float towards the
Oscars. Life of Pi could very well be
the film to beat now that Argo may
not be the front-runner. On the other hand, an all-important precursor—The
Screen Actors’ Guild Awards—can give a boost to virtually any of the top
contenders except for Pi when the
awards are handed out on Sunday night. Pi,
however, isn’t really an actors’ showcase. The best performance in the film
comes from a motion capture tiger, and since awards bodies emphasized that they
would not throw Uggie a bone last year for his award-worthy work in The Artist, Richard Parker can’t help Life of Pi get a boost from the actors.
If Argo takes the
top prize on Sunday night, which it very well could, then Ben Affleck’s Best
Director snub will be even more baffling. As someone who is in the group that has been predicting Argo to win Best Picture, I’m all but ready to throw up my hands and yell “Argo f*ck yourself!” with this bizarrely
unpredictable awards race. I’m not quite ready to ditch Argo from my predictions, but I’m getting there.
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| Will the big cast of Lincoln take it all the way to Best Picture? |
Sunday’s SAG ceremony could have me switching my bet to Lincoln. With a whopping twelve
nominations, an appealing blend of support from both press and industry, and an
unusually large box-office take for a long talky drama, Lincoln has all the right check marks for an Oscar winner. If one
adds to this list the increased resonance of the film in light of President
Obama’s second inauguration, Lincoln
has the extra substance to make it a worthy film to define 2012. Lincoln, clearly, is also an “actor’s
movie.” It has four nominations from the Screen Actors’ Guild—Ensemble, Actor
(Daniel Day-Lewis), Supporting Actor (Tommy Lee Jones), and Supporting Actress
(Sally Field)—and a heavy roster of stars whose work has been acknowledged by
their peers in the past (see: James Spader, Hal Holbrook, Joseph Gordon-Levitt,
et al.). If there is any corner of the industry that can make or break Lincoln, SAG could be it. [Interesting note: The Film Experience reports that Lincoln sent out a last minute blast of screeners to SAG members. Does this mean it's shaky, or that it can win some eleventh hour votes? Also, the Lincoln team has apparently been sending out Lincoln cookbooks. Random, but I haven't been able to think of a Lincoln-themed food item for an Oscar party, besides a ham named Sally Field.]
Lincoln has a
near-guaranteed win for Daniel Day-Lewis’s commanding presence in the Best
Actor category, and it stands a good chance of winning for Tommy Lee Jones’s
performance in the Best Supporting Actor category since Golden Globe winner
Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)
didn’t make the cut. Sally Field, however, probably will not win, since Anne
Hathaway seems sure to triumph. Hathaway’s win could serve as a consolation prize
for Les Misérables, just as a win for
Daniel Day-Lewis could be seen as a fitting acknowledgment for Lincoln. Les Misérables, which has four nominations (also: Ensemble, Actor,
Stunts), could just as easily topple Argo
in the awards race if it wins at SAG since it also came out with the biggest
haul at the Golden Globes. However, like Argo,
Les Misérables lacks a Best Director
nomination at the Oscars, which Spielberg has for Lincoln. Therefore…
Lincoln needs a
victory on Sunday to take control of the Oscar race. If it does win, then Lincoln might seem like a viable choice
for voters who have an unusually long period to reconsider the films and change
their minds between casting ballots for nominations and casting votes for
winners. If Lincoln doesn’t win,
though, then it might deflate in the Best Picture race and see the top prize
going to Argo or Zero Dark Thirty and the Best Director prize going to, say, Ang
Lee. The same split could go to Argo
and Spielberg just as easily, but we need the actors to give us some direction.
The other film that could benefit strongly from the actors’
branch is Silver Linings Playbook.
Like Lincoln and Les Mis, Silver Linings has
four nominations: Best Ensemble, Best Actress (Jennifer Lawrence), Best Actor
(Bradley Cooper), and Best Supporting Actor (Robert De Niro). All three are
nominated at the Oscars, as is surprise contender Jacki Weaver. Since Silver Linings Playbook is the first
film in thirty years to be recognized in all four acting categories, too, it
presumably has a lot of support from the actors. The performances in Silver Linings Playbook are also far
less divisive than are the over-the-top turns by Jones and Field in Lincoln. More criticisms of SLP fall on the characters, rather than
the performers themselves, so one could also argue that it’s the strength of
the acting that makes the film work. On the other hand, Lawrence (a SAG win for
her would be a big push for the film), Cooper, and De Niro could lose to
Jessica Chastain, Daniel Day-Lewis, and Tommy Lee Jones, respectively, but then
enjoy the silver lining of an ensemble prize. Everyone’s a winner in this
scenario, which leaves awards fans both happy and screwed.
This year’s SAG awards ceremony is doubly interesting, too,
because the voters had an unusual amount of time following the Oscar
nominations. Could this year’s guild awards become consolation prizes? I.e.: a
voter might say, “I give this one to Javier Bardem, but I’ll give Tommy Lee
Jones the Oscar.” Likewise, votes for someone who didn’t land an Oscar
nomination (ex: Nicole Kidman or Maggie Smith) could be thrown to a second
choice like Helen Hunt. That seems like over-thinking it, in my opinion, but
the only explanation for this strange season is mass conspiracy. For all the
weirdness and frustration of this award-season, though, I haven’t enjoyed an
Oscar race this much in years.
In addition, the Producers Guild Awards will be named on
Friday, so any of these films could gain another valuable win. I think that Life of Pi will be the PGA winner thanks
to its ground-breaking special effects, its attempt to film the unfilmable, and
its universal box-office success. (A good case could be made for Lincoln, too.) With so many high-grosses
among the Best Picture nominees, it’s anyone’s game, really. The PGA could even
give Argo another valuable
endorsement. Argo, after all, is a
movie about a film production that created a defining moment in American
history. And, wouldn’t you know it, it’s the producer played by Alan Arkin who
delivers the oft-quoted line, “Argo fuck yourself.”
In short: Lincoln or Silver Linings Playbook could create a turning point in the Oscar race with a SAG win, but it's still an open field. The Producers could swing favour to any film, really. Without further ado, here are predictions for this weekend’s
SAG awards and PGA awards.
★ Will win
If I picked the winner
Please feel free to share your hunches on either of these
races.
Is mass conspiracy the answer?!
SAG AWARDS:
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture:
Argo
The Best Exotic
Marigold Hotel
Les Misérables
★ Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role:
Bradley Cooper for Silver
Linings Playbook
★ Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln
John Hawkes for The
Sessions
Hugh Jackman for Les
Misérables
Denzel Washington for Flight
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role:
Jessica Chastain for Zero
Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard for Rust
and Bone
★ Jennifer Lawrence for Silver
Linings Playbook
Helen Mirren for
Hitchcock
Naomi Watts for The
Impossible
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role:
Alan Arkin for Argo
Javier Bardem for Skyfall
Robert De Niro for Silver
Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman for The Master
★Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role:
Sally Field for Lincoln
★ Anne Hathaway for Les
Misérables
Helen Hunt for The
Sessions
Nicole Kidman for The
Paperboy
Maggie Smith for The
Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture:
The Amazing Spider-Man
The Bourne Legacy
The Dark Knight Rises
Les Misérables
★ Skyfall
Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series:
"30 Rock"
"The Big Bang Theory"
"Glee"
★ "Modern Family"
"Nurse Jackie"
"The Office"
Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series:
"Boardwalk Empire"
"Breaking Bad"
"Downton Abbey"
★ "Homeland"
"Mad Men"
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series:
★ Alec Baldwin for "30 Rock"
Ty Burrell for "Modern Family"
Louis C.K. for "Louie"
Jim Parsons for "The Big Bang Theory"
Eric Stonestreet for "Modern Family"
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series:
Edie Falco for "Nurse Jackie"
Tina Fey for "30 Rock"
Amy Poehler for "Parks and Recreation"
Sofía Vergara for "Modern Family"
★ Betty White for "Hot in Cleveland"
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series:
Steve Buscemi for "Boardwalk Empire"
Bryan Cranston for "Breaking Bad"
Jeff Daniels for "The Newsroom"
Jon Hamm for "Mad Men"
★ Damian Lewis for "Homeland"
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series:
★ Claire Danes for "Homeland"
Michelle Dockery for "Downton Abbey"
Jessica Lange for "American Horror Story"
Maggie Smith for "Downton Abbey"
Julianna Margulies for "The Good Wife"
--> This is a tough one to call!
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries:
★ Kevin Costner for "Hatfields & McCoys"
Woody Harrelson for Game
Change
Ed Harris for Game
Change
Clive Owen for Hemingway
& Gellhorn
Bill Paxton for "Hatfields & McCoys”
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries:
Nicole Kidman for Hemingway
& Gellhorn
★ Julianne Moore for Game
Change
Charlotte Rampling for Restless
Sigourney Weaver for "Political Animals"
Alfre Woodard for Steel
Magnolias
Producers' Guild Awards:
Feature Film:
Argo
Beasts of the Southern
Wild
Django Unchained
Les Misérables
★ Life of Pi
Lincoln
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings
Playbook
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
Animated Film:
★ Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
Rise of the Guardians
Wreck-It Ralph
Documentary Film:
A People Uncounted
The GatekeepersThe Island President
The Other Dream Team
★ Searching for Sugar Man
Best Picture
Best Director
Michael Haneke, Amour
★ Ang Lee, Life of Pi
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
★ Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight
Best Actress
★ Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
★ Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field, Lincoln
★ Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
Best Original Screenplay
Flight, John
Gatins
Moonrise Kingdom, Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola
Zero Dark Thirty,
Mark Boal
Best Adapted Screenplay
Argo, Chris
Terrio
Beasts of the Southern Wild, Benh
Zeitlin & Lucy Alibar
Silver Linings Playbook,
David O. Russell
Life of Pi, Tim
Squyres
Lincoln, Michael
Kahn
Silver Linings Playbook,
Jay Cassidy
Zero Dark Thirty, William Goldenberg and
Dylan Tichenor
Best Cinematography
Anna Karenina, Seamus
McGarvey
Les Misérables,
Paco Delgado
Lincoln, Joanna
Johnston
Mirror Mirror,
Eiko Ishioka
Snow White and the
Hunstman, Colleen Atwood
Best Score
Argo, Alexandre
Desplat
Lincoln, John
Williams
Skyfall, Thomas
Newman
Best Foreign Language Film
★ Amour – Austria
Kon-tiki – Norway
A Royal Affair –
Denmark
No – Chile
No – Chile
Rebelle – Canada
Best Documentary
The Gatekeepers
How to Survive a
Plague
“Pi’s Lullaby” from Life of Pi
★ “Skyfall”
from Skyfall“Suddenly” from Les Misérables
Best Sound Editing
★Argo Zero Dark Thirty
Best Sound Mixing
Argo
★ Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
Best Hair and Make-up
Best Visual Effects
Best Animated Feature
★ Brave
Pirates: Band of Misfits
Wreck it Ralph
Wreck it Ralph
Best Short Film - Live Action
Asad
Buzkashi Boys
Curfew
Death of a Shadow
Henry
Best Short Film - Animated
Adam and Dog
Fresh Guacamole (watch)
Head Over Heels
Maggie Simpson in 'The Longest Daycare'
Paperman (watch)
Best Documentary Short
Inocente
Kings Point
Mondays at Racine
Open Heart
Redemption
