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Ben Affleck's Argo: our next Best Picture winner? |
Not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse;
The trophies were put on the mantle with care,
In hopes that Sir Oscar soon would be there;
Ben Affleck was nestled all snug in his bed,
While visions of D’rector noms danc'd in his head…
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Emmanuelle Riva in Amour |
Best Picture seems like one of the safest bets of the night.
Other contenders you might want to check off in the Oscar pool are Daniel Day-Lewis
(Lincoln) and Anne Hathaway (Les Mis). Likewise, Amour is probably a safe bet for Best Foreign Language Film since
it’s also up for Best Picture. Only three other non-American foreign-language
films have been nominated for Best Picture in the past twenty years: Il Postino, Life is Beautiful, and Crouching
Tiger, Hidden Dragon. The latter two won Best Foreign Language Film by a
mile. On the other hand, Best Foreign Language Film is one of the few
categories where voters must see all five films in order to be able to vote, so
Amour might not be 100% locked. I personally liked Canada’s War Witch and Denmark’s A Royal Affair better, and they’re much
easier sits. Likewise, some Foreign Film contenders that seemed like
frontrunners because they had additional nominations actually lost the prize
(see: Amélie, Pan’s Labyrinth, The White
Ribbon), so it’s possible that fans of a film might not be bothered to sit
through all the nominees if they’re confident of its chances. With that being
said, though, Michael Haneke is overdue for an Oscar and he seems unbeatable.
Most of the other categories are hard to predict since there
is little consensus among critics, fans, and guilds. The dispersed support
among these contenders simply reveals what a strong year it was for movies in
2012. In most cases, the winner couldn’t be more worthy even if he or she is
not my first choice. Here’s a look at some of the major races:
Best Picture
Argo, as suggested
above, is the one to beat. It’s hard to dislike Argo and its vanilla ice
cream flavour will probably
give it an edge on the preferential ballot. If it’s not someone’s first choice,
it could easily be number two or three. There’s really no reason to vote against it.
Atop my ballot (Argo would be in my
fourth spot) is Zero Dark Thirty,
which might be hurt by the ballot since criticisms that it endorses torture
might prevent it from amassing fifty percent of the votes (plus one). Zero Dark Thirty deserves the prize for
how bravely and boldly it depicts (and deconstructs) a recent, relevant event.
My second choice, Silver Linings Playbook, could fare better since it’s a feel-good crowd-pleaser, as well as a smart, snappy film. The SLP campaign has played up the importance of the film’s depiction of mental illness lately too, which could inspire some voters to look at the film with a deeper gaze; however, the effort might have been too late to overpower the momentum that Argo built after the nominations were announced. Silver Linings is probably the wild card of the night, though, since it nabbed a rare quartet of acting nominations and was nominated in every category in which it was a legitimate contender.
My second choice, Silver Linings Playbook, could fare better since it’s a feel-good crowd-pleaser, as well as a smart, snappy film. The SLP campaign has played up the importance of the film’s depiction of mental illness lately too, which could inspire some voters to look at the film with a deeper gaze; however, the effort might have been too late to overpower the momentum that Argo built after the nominations were announced. Silver Linings is probably the wild card of the night, though, since it nabbed a rare quartet of acting nominations and was nominated in every category in which it was a legitimate contender.
Lincoln and Life of Pi, which would have spots eight
and nine on my ballot, are probably going to be Argo’s main competition. As the two highest nomination-getters,
plus the only two films with Best Director nominations from both the Academy
and the Directors’ Guild, these two films have strong precedents to win.
Likewise, Lincoln’s American charm
and Pi’s technical pizzazz will earn
Brownie points from some circles and help some voters overlook flaws that
might not otherwise be forgiven.
Rounding out the Best Picture line-up are strong films that
probably have little chance of winning because they won’t pick up ballots as
the process moves along: Amour (“too
depressing”), Beasts of the Southern Wild
(“too small”), Django Unchained (“too
violent, too racist, too profane”), and Les
Misérables (“too many close-ups”). I wouldn’t count out Beasts entirely, though! People love
that movie!
Will win: Argo
Should win: Zero Dark
Thirty
Shoulda been there: Anna
Karenina
Best Director
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David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook |
More likely to trump Russell, however, are past winners Ang
Lee and Steven Spielberg. I can’t get excited about a win for either nominee
since their direction is competent, but their film is nowhere near the calibre
of their previous works. It’s hard to be moved by a repeat win for lesser
material. I think Lee will probably win because Life of Pi is an undeniable visual achievement, and Lee essentially
filmed the unfilmable, even though the script of the adaptation is a
heavy-handed blunder. Spielberg could win, too, since Lincoln is solid all-American cinema.
@Michael_Haneke |
Then there is Michael Haneke, who is arguably the wild card.
(I’ll credit @Michael_Haneke if Amour wins
this prize.) Haneke’s bleak, unsentimental intellectualism is immediately
tangible in Amour and the skill of
the film is easy to grasp in spite of its emotional coldness. Benh Zeitlin,
finally, is bound to have some love for the originality of Beasts of the Southern Wild and he’s sure to win some well-deserved
votes for getting such a strong performance out of young actress Quvenzhané
Wallis.
But who will win Best Director? With every major prize going
to Ben Affleck and most critical prizes going to Kathryn Bigelow (before some
loonies launched their smear campaign against Zero Dark Thirty), there really isn’t any clue as to who will win.
Ang Lee is the only director to have been nominated at the Golden Globes, the
Director’s Guild, and the BAFTAs, so I assume he’s the default choice.
It’s anyone’s prize to win though, and Best Director is probably the hardest
race to call of the night.
Will win: Ang Lee, Life
of Pi
Should win: David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Shoulda been there: Joe Wright (Anna Karenina), Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)
Best Actor
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Dark horse Bradley Cooper deserves Best Actor |
Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Should win: Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Shoulda been there: Christopher Plummer (Barrymore), John Hawkes (The Sessions)
Best Actress
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Jessica Chastain should win for Zero Dark Thirty |
In recent days,
however, there has been growing support for Emmanuelle Riva (Amour). The 85-year old actress is considered
overdue and while an Oscar won’t do much for her career at this point, it will
serve as an acknowledgement of a life of strong work. Riva is quite good in Amour, but when it comes to an actress who spends most of her film
bedridden, I personally think that Naomi Watts’s performance in The Impossible conjures far more emotion and depth. Riva’s age is especially worth noting in giving her an
advantage over Watts, Chastain, and Lawrence, since her role is intricately
connected to growing old; moreover, her age is an obvious factor when she’s
nominated alongside 9-year old Quvenzhané Wallis, who is the youngest nominee
ever in this category. Age might work against Q-Dubs, who I think is more worthy
than Riva, but it will likely work in her elder’s favour.
Can Riva overcome the early lead by Chastain and Lawrence? I
don’t know. Silver Linings Playbook
has to win something on Sunday night
with eight nominations and four acting gongs, so Lawrence seems like its best
shot at the podium.
Will win: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook (or Riva?)
Should win: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Shoulda been there: Keira Knightley (Anna Karenina), Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone), Mary Elizabeth Winstead (Smashed)
Best Supporting Actor
Like Best Director, any nominee in Best Supporting Actor
could conceivably win. The nominees shared the wealth in the precursors, with
Jones winning the SAG, Hoffman the Critics’ Choice, and Waltz the Golden Globe
and BAFTA. Robert De Niro has been working the circuit pretty hard with a few
wins and many nominations, and his recent appearance on
Katie Couric reveals the depth of his performance in Silver Linings Playbook and shows why the film has a greater
significance than one would expect for a romantic comedy. Alan Arkin hasn’t won
any individual prizes, but he’s been the frequent nominee of the Argo ensemble. Anyone could win this
prize.
Jones hams it up in Lincoln
and his showy role had many people raving. I liked it not, even though I’m
generally a big fan of Jones. Hoffman is The
Master’s biggest force and he deserves to win for his strange, verbose
performance. The difference between Hoffman and Jones is really the difference
between “good overacting” and “bad overacting”. Waltz is equally over-the-top
in Django Unchained and he enjoys the
extra presence of a large role. Dr. Schultz is by all regards a lead role,
which could give Waltz an advantage. (I wouldn’t argue with his win if it were
in the lead category.) Alan Arkin is funny, crotchety and perfectly serviceable
in Argo, and he could win if lovefor the film spills over.
The added ruse of Best Supporting Actor is that, for the
first time ever, all nominees are previous winners. On some level, I think that
voters might look at the ballot and wonder, “Which of these winners deserves
another Oscar?” Waltz and Arkin won quite recently, and Hoffman only the year
before Arkin, so it could be down to Jones and De Niro. De Niro gives his best
performance in years in SLP, so he
could be rewarded for his comeback, but my guess is that Tommy Lee Jones will
take this due to the popularity of the film and to his streak of strong work in
recent years.
Will win: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Should win: Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Shoulda been there: Ezra Miller, The Perks of Being a Wallflower
Best Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway wins for Les
Misérables. It’s no contest. Like Daniel Day-Lewis, Hathaway has won
virtually every major prize. Hathaway’s win could serve as a consolation prize
for Les Mis, which is probably not
going to win Best Picture or Best Actor. Hathaway would be my second choice,
since her performance of “I Dreamed a Dreamed” is undeniably moving and a feat
that one can easily use to argue the strength of Tom Hooper’s approach to Les Misérables: there’s so much raw,
genuine emotion in that live-recorded unedited close-up!
I hope Helen Hunt pulls a surprise win for her performance of
revelatory emotion in The Sessions. The
size and range of her role could give her a chance against Hathaway, who has
very little screentime in Les Mis.
But since John Hawkes was surprisingly snubbed for The Sessions, Hunt probably won’t win. (Sigh.) Hathaway’s biggest
competitors are likely Sally Field (Lincoln)
and Amy Adams (The Master). Field
gives a showy, if gratingly histrionic, performance as Mary Todd Lincoln.
Adams, on the other hand, brings a fairly bland role to life in The Master. Everything that’s
fascinating about the character is a credit to Adams. Adams also had the
thankless task of carrying much of The
Master’s weight on the campaign trail, so that could earn her more fans.
Jacki Weaver, finally, must have earned a few #1 votes to land her surprise
nomination for Silver Linings Playbook,
but that might have been enabled by the fact that Hathaway earned such a high
percentage of the original vote.
Will win: Anne Hathaway, Les
Misérables
Should win: Helen Hunt, The
Sessions
Shoulda been there: Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
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Life of Pi - biggest winner or Best Picture winner? |
Best Picture
Argo - Grant Heslov, Ben Affleck, George Clooney
Django Unchained - Stacey Sher, Reginald Hudlin, Pilar Savone
Les Misérables - Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Debra Hayward, Cameron Mackintosh
Life of Pi - Gil Netter, Ang Lee, David Womark
Lincoln - Steven Spielberg, Kathleen Kennedy
Silver Linings Playbook - Donna Gigliotti, Bruce Cohen, Jonathan Gordon
★ Will win: Argo
★ Should win: Zero Dark Thirty
★ Should win: Zero Dark Thirty
Best Director
Michael Haneke, Amour
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
★ Will win: Ang Lee, Life of Pi
★ Should win: David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
★ Should win: David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight
★ Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
★ Should win: Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
★ Should win: Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
★ Will win: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
★ Should win: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
★ Should win: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
★ Will win: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
★ Should win: Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
★ Should win: Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
★ Will win: Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
★ Should win: Helen Hunt, The Sessions
★ Should win: Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Best Original Screenplay
Flight, John
Gatins
Moonrise Kingdom, Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola
Zero Dark Thirty,
Mark Boal
★ Will win: Django Unchained
★ Should win: Zero Dark Thirty
★ Should win: Zero Dark Thirty
Best Adapted Screenplay
Argo, Chris
Terrio
Beasts of the Southern Wild, Benh
Zeitlin & Lucy Alibar
Silver Linings Playbook,
David O. Russell
★ Will win: Argo? (I really thought Lincoln had this until recently)
★ Should win: Silver Linings Playbook
★ Should win: Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi, Tim
Squyres
Lincoln, Michael
Kahn
Silver Linings Playbook,
Jay Cassidy
Zero Dark Thirty, William Goldenberg and
Dylan Tichenor
★ Will win: Argo
★ Should win: Zero Dark Thirty (I really liked the edited of Silver Linings too!)
★ Should win: Zero Dark Thirty (I really liked the edited of Silver Linings too!)
Best Cinematography
Anna Karenina, Seamus
McGarvey
★ Will win: Life of Pi (or Skyfall)
★ Should win: Anna Karenina!
★ Should win: Anna Karenina!
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - Dan Hennah, Ra Vincent, Simon Bright
Life of Pi - David Gropman, Anna Pinnock
★ Will win: Anna Karenina
★ Should win: Anna Karenina
★ Should win: Anna Karenina
Les Misérables,
Paco Delgado
Lincoln, Joanna
Johnston
Mirror Mirror,
Eiko Ishioka
Snow White and the
Hunstman, Colleen Atwood
★ Will win: Anna Karenina
★ Should win: Anna Karenina
★ Should win: Anna Karenina
Best Score
Anna Karenina,
Dario Marianelli
Argo, Alexandre
Desplat
Life of Pi,
Mychael Danna
Lincoln, John
Williams
Skyfall, Thomas
Newman
★ Will win: Life of Pi
★ Should win: Anna Karenina
★ Should win: Anna Karenina
Best Foreign Language Film
Amour – Austria
Kon-tiki – Norway
A Royal Affair –
Denmark
No – Chile
No – Chile
Rebelle/War Witch – Canada
★ Will win: Amour
★ Should win: Rebelle
★ Should win: Rebelle
Best Documentary
The Gatekeepers
How to Survive a
Plague
★ Will win: Searching for Sugarman
★ Should win: The Invisible War
★ Should win: The Invisible War
Best Song
“Before My Time” from Chasing Ice
“Pi’s Lullaby” from Life of Pi
“Skyfall”
from Skyfall“Suddenly” from Les Misérables
★ Will win: Life of Pi
★ Should win: Zero Dark Thirty
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
★ Should win: Zero Dark Thirty
Best Sound Mixing
ArgoLes Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
★ Will win: Les Misérables
★ Should win: Skyfall
Buzkashi Boys
Curfew
Death of a Shadow
Henry (watch)
★ Should win: Skyfall
Best Hair and Make-up
★ Will win: Les Misérables
★ Should win: Les Misérables
★ Should win: Les Misérables
Best Visual Effects
★ Will win: Life of Pi
★ Should win: Life of Pi
★ Should win: Life of Pi
Best Animated Feature
Brave
Pirates: Band of Misfits
Wreck it Ralph
Wreck it Ralph
★ Will win: Brave
★ Should win: Frankenweenie
★ Should win: Frankenweenie
Best Short Film - Live Action
AsadBuzkashi Boys
Curfew
Death of a Shadow
Henry (watch)
★ Will win: Asad
Fresh Guacamole (watch)
Head Over Heels (watch)
Maggie Simpson in 'The Longest Daycare' (watch)
Paperman (watch)
Best Short Film - Animated
Adam and Dog (watch)Fresh Guacamole (watch)
Head Over Heels (watch)
Maggie Simpson in 'The Longest Daycare' (watch)
Paperman (watch)
★ Will win: Paperman
★ Should win: Adam and Dog
Kings Point
Mondays at Racine
Open Heart
Redemption
★ Should win: Adam and Dog
Best Documentary Short
InocenteKings Point
Mondays at Racine
Open Heart
Redemption
★ Will win: Inocente
The Oscars air on CTV at 8:30 pm.
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