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| Sandra Bullock in Gravity |
Best Actress
Okay, so it might have been premature to leave
Sandra Bullock out of the first round of predictions that were made on October
3rd when Gravity was set
to open on October 4th. Gravity
was the movie of the moment until Jackass
Bad Grandpa stole its box office thunder and 12 Years a Slave levelled out the critical buzz. (Both Gravity and Slave are even Steven on Metacritic with a whopping score of 96.). Bullock nevertheless seems
poised to ride the enthusiasm for the film into an early foothold on one of the
nominations in an increasingly competitive field. Bullock is strong in Gravity, but it’s still surprises me
that there can be so much support—let alone such extreme support—for a
performance that mostly lets Bullock act as a prop for the VFX crew. Gravity relies quite heavily on the filter of its 3D glasses to provide a breathtaking film experience, so the film likely won't play with as much an impact should voters watch the film on a screener, rather than in the full theatrical experience. One of the
lead actresses in one of the year’s performance-driven films could therefore edge Bullock
out since indies often translate well to thesmall screen, although the wide release of Gravity probably makes Bullock's performance more accessible than most of the other contenders combined.
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| A performance of true gravity: Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine |
Also looking like strong contenders are two
Weinstein Company actresses, Meryl Streep and Judi Dench, for August: Osage County and Philomena, respectively. Stiff
competition (both external and internal) and a recent win seem like the only
reason to doubt Meryl upping her record of nominations, but her Violet Weston is even better than
the Margaret Thatcher that won her a well-deserved Oscar two years ago, so
Streep fatigue might not set in yet. (And the Academy gave Daniel Day-Lewis and
Christoph Waltz two Oscars in close proximity.) Had she not just won for The Iron Lady, Streep might have been a
shoo-in for August: Osage County.
Dench, on the other hand, has been cited for lesser
work and Philomena is her strongest
performance since 2006’s Notes on a
Scandal. Dench isn’t slowing down, though, as her recent press
for Philomena has squashed rumours
that she is retiring due to macular degeneration. (She’s also set
to shoot a sequel to The Best Exotic
Marigold Hotel in January.) A lack of retirement plans only means that Philomena won’t be a “career Oscar”
should Dench trump her Notes on a Scandal
co-star Cate Blanchett. Philomena
opens in the UK this week, where’s it’s earning solid reviews, like this 5-star
rave from Empire that calls it the dark horse of
the award season. This review really captures the tone that makes Philomena one in a million and Dench a
major threat in the awards race. The Empire
review shows that Dench has traction and staying power in the race, as she’s
been getting raves since the film premiered at Venice, such as in this great
one from Time,
which boasts, “Philomena rises to poignancy and profundity as
Dench reveals her control of a character stained by the loss of her child ….” Philomena is deceptively sunny, but, as the
Time review suggests, Dench gives a
performance that raises the film to the highest calibre. (Claims that the film
is lightweight are misguided.) The apparent lightness of the film makes Dench's performance especially devastating in the film's final act punch. Dench could be the wild card of the race if the
good reviews continue when Philomena
opens stateside.
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| Judi Dench in Philomena: is she the wild card? |
Dench might not a complete lock for the BAFTA for
the Comedy category at the Globes (Philomena’s in that grey area between comedy and
drama, and thus could go either way) since the only significant new development
in the Best Actress comes from a fellow
Brit. The presence of Emma Thompson in the race changes little as far as
predictions are concerned after Saving
Mr. Banks premiered at the London Film Festival last week. Emma Thompson
was cited in the top tier of predictions for her performance in Saving Mr. Banks during Round 1 even though nobody had seen the film—see,
it’s never too soon to chat Oscars!—and the reports from the film’s LFF
screening are supercalifragilisticexpialidocious. The screening simply
confirmed what some of us assumed. Thompson on Hollywood
(no relation to Emma, as far as I know) called her performance “a curmudgeonly
delight” while The Hollywood Reporter
gives an interesting take, calling Thompson “a fearsome figure of feminine
steeliness” and then compares the performance to Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side. (Saving Mr. Banks is by Blind
Side director John Lee Hancock.) It seems like a compliment whether pr not the
author intends it to be one. (I, on the other hand, might invoke The Blind Side for a fumble.) Good word
for Thompson’s performance will likely have her sitting pretty, especially once
the Golden Globe nominations are announced. Being one of the few major studio
films with a Best Actress contender, Thompson will join Bullock as a safe bet
given the accessible reach of her film over the crowded field of contenders.
Blanchett, Bullock, Streep, Dench, and Thompson are five
solid bets, but it’s only November! There are many actresses in the running
from small films that could fair well from critics’ prizes, although Blanchett
seems poised to steamroll them all. A dark horse like Julie Delpy in Before Midnight (who, sadly,
fell from my predicted five this week) or Kate Winslet in Labor Day, or a long shot like Greta Gerwig, or even longer
shots like Adèle Exarchopoulos in Blue is the Warmest Color, Brie Larsen in Short Term 12, and other worthy underdogs might be in if enough voters see their films. Then
of course there’s Julia Roberts, who could swing the lead race just as greatly
as she could the supporting one.
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| Chiwetel Ejiofor as Solomon Northup in 12 Years a Slave |
Best Actor
If Best Actress seems like a crowded race, then Best
Actor is a whole other gauntlet. Well over five names seem like formidable
contenders not only for a nomination, but also for a win. This race is the
toughest to predict of them all and it only looks to become trickier as the
weeks to the Oscars approach the nomination day. Any omission could presumably
shift the dynamics of this competitive race.
The frontrunner, for now, looks to be 12 Years a Slave star Chiwetel Ejiofor.
Ejiofor has been on top since the film previewed at Telluride before premiering—and
winning—at Toronto. Rave reviews, like that of the NPR, convey
how much his complex performance makes a film with such a difficult topic so accessible and able
to scoop a major audience award: “But it is Ejiofor — bewildered, sorely
tested, morally towering — whose staggered dignity anchors the film.” Even the
few negative reviews of the film, like this one from The Village Voice, read like a full-on rave for Ejiofor despite misgivings for
the film itself, saying, “His subtlety is the earth-moving kind: He could
probably shift a mountain just by arching an eyebrow.”
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| Robert Redford in All is Lost |
Earning equal praise for subtlety and sitting close to par
with Ejiofor is Robert Redford. More experts at Gold Derby actually have Redford ranked at #1 (he has 9 top votes compared to Ejiofor’s
8), but some of the pundits don’t have Redford on their projected ballot at
all, while Ejiofor appears on every one—in most cases in the first or second
spot. Rule of thumb puts Ejiofor slightly ahead of Redford since he appears in
a Best Picture contender, whereas All is
Lost is a dark horse for the top prize. On the other hand, Redford has
never won an Oscar for acting. His one competitive win is for directing 1980’s Ordinary People and since All is Lost sees the veteran acting at
the top of his game, voters would be hard pressed to find a performance for
which Redford is more worthy.
Redford’s fellow vet in the race, Bruce Dern, could also be
on the receiving end of some long overdue recognition. Dern won Best Actor at
Cannes for his performance in Alexander Payne’s Nebraska. (All is Lost screened
out of competition at the festival.) Praise and honours have greeted Dern
during the fall festival run too, so the support is clearly there for his
performance. But it’s also a performance that many writers and festival fans
have mentioned in both the lead and the supporting race. Paramount has Dern
listed as Nebraska’s sole lead and
the actor himself has avidly maintained
that competing in the supporting race would amount to prostitution. It’s noble
to face the competition in the correct category, but any degree of opinion
could edge Dern out of the race in such a crowded field.
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| Forest Whitaker stars in Lee Daniels' The Butler Photo: Anne Marie Fox |
If Dern appears on differing ballots, the vote will go
easier for other heavy favourites like Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club), Tom Hanks (who, like Ejiofor, seems like a safe bet since Captain Phillips looks to be a surefire Best Picture nominee), or Forest Whitaker (Lee Daniels’ The Butler). Any of these
three could conceivably win just as easily of the aforementioned trio of
actors. The reviews are there, as is the both office in the case of Captain and Butler. Buyers opens in
some theatres this weekend, but McConaughey is already riding high on the claims
that he is more overdue for recognition than any actor in the race. For an
actor who was almost nominated for a small part in a middlebrow stripper flick like
Magic Mike, a risky, provocative
festival favourite like Dallas Buyers
Club could acknowledge the actor for his string of strong work since his recent
comeback.
However, three and three makes six. Like Best Actress, Best
Actor is overloaded with strong contenders. Add to this the underdogs (Michael
B. Jordan, Oscar Isaac) and new favourites (Joaquin Phoenix), and the race is
bound to explode when latecomers like American
Hustle and The Wolf of Wall Street
introduce Christian Bale and Leonardo DiCaprio to the race. If the performances
of the latter two actors are half as good as the early footage of their films indicates,
then some early favourite could be absent altogether. The newly announced Christmas release of The Wolf of Wall Street will
shake things up: even if the film doesn't deliver, which seems unlikely
since it's a Martin Scorsese picture, it could at least remind voters
of DiCaprio's strong work in The Great Gatsby.
But who misses? Number ones and number twos will be essential on the ballot in a year like this: imagine a scenario in which universal acclaim isn’t enough! Being everyone’s second or third choice might just not cut it. For this reason, I’ve moved Forest Whitaker out of the top tier to make room for Redford, but in what world do the reviews for his performance and the hundred-million dollar box office take for The Butler result an omission?!
Best Actor
But who misses? Number ones and number twos will be essential on the ballot in a year like this: imagine a scenario in which universal acclaim isn’t enough! Being everyone’s second or third choice might just not cut it. For this reason, I’ve moved Forest Whitaker out of the top tier to make room for Redford, but in what world do the reviews for his performance and the hundred-million dollar box office take for The Butler result an omission?!
Predictions
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Emma Thompson, Saving
Mr. Banks
Almost put: Julie Delpy, Before Midnight*
Alt: Amy Adams, American Hustle; Adèle Exarchopoulos, Blue is the Warmest Color;* Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha; Julia Roberts, August: Osage County; Kate Winslet, Labor Day
Best Actor
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12
Years a Slave
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas
Buyers Club
Robert Redford, All is Lost
Almost put: Forest Whitaker, Lee Daniels’ The Butler*
Alt: Christian
Bale, American Hustle (or Out of the Furnace); Steve Coogan, Philomena; Idris Elba, Mandela; Ethan Hawke, Before Midnight;
Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis;
Michael B. Jordan, Fruitvale Station; Joaquin Phoenix, Her
*new or moved
Up next: Round 2 of full predictions!
*new or moved
What are your early picks for Best Actress and Best Actor?
Up next: Round 2 of full predictions!
