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| Jake Gyllenhaal in Enemy |
Predicting the Canadian Screen Awards might seem like an affair more daunting and frivolous than guessing the Oscars, though, since there’s little to go on. Festivals and awards, enthusiastic fans/press, and negligible theatrical runs are three starting points, though. So let’s look at the Canadian Screen Awards in 3 Easy Steps.
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| Gabrielle |
Step 1: Spot the Oscar Submission
The easiest starting point with predicting the CSAs, as
noted by Rebelle’s sweep last year
and the sweeps of Monsieur Lazhar and
Incendies in previous years, is to
pick Canada’s Oscar entry and cut and paste its title into potential
categories. It’s a no-brainer to go CTRL+C and CTRL+V with Gabrielle, then, since virtually no film stood much chance of
competing with it for a shot at the Oscars. Gabrielle’s
omission from the Best Foreign Language Film shortlist shouldn’t put any doubt
at it being a frontrunner for the Canadian award: it’s the best Canadian film of 2013 and any exposure it gained in the early stages of the Oscar race
give it obvious head start.
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| Rhymes for Young Ghouls |
Step 2: Canada’s Top Ten
Step 2 generally follows looks to TIFF and Canada’s Top Ten
as the next building block. The overlap between the CSAs and CTT are often
quite good. Only two of last year’s six Best Film nominees—Inch’Allah and L’affair
Dumont—failed to make Canada’s Top Ten. Before that, only The Whistleblower was the odd film out
between Genie and TIFF (error on your part, Toronto) and 10½ the year before that. This year’s strong line-up for Canada’s Top Ten consists of eight films that could make the
Canadian Academy’s flexible list of five to ten nominees: Asphalt Watches, Enemy, The F Word, Gabrielle, Rhymes for Young Ghouls, Sarah Prefers to Run, Tom at the Farm, and Vic +Flo Saw a Bear.
Also on CTT’s list, but unable to make the Best Picture cut
for the CSAs are Watermark and TIFF
Canuck winner When Jews Were Funny. Watermark and When Jews Were Funny are unable to compete outside the feature
documentary category. This error still stands as one area in which the Canadian
Screen Awards could find improvement. In the case of Watermark, for example, the best cinematography in any Canadian
film this year isn’t allowed to receive its due, well, “just because.” Does any
Canadian film this year make use of the visual power and scope of the medium as
well as Watermark does? No.
If only eight of the films are eligible, which of them are
contenders? All of them could presumably make the cut, but Jeff Barnaby’s
acclaimed Rhymes for Young Ghouls and
Denis Côté’s art house hit Vic + Flo
seem like the CTT films most likely to join Gabrielle.
Asphalt Watches could be a dark horse,
but Canadian awards aren’t too snooty to give the prize to an animated film:
recall that The Triplets of Belleville scored
Best Film in 2004. Sarah, on the other hand, might have better
legs in the Best Actress race than it does in the race for Best Film: it’s
good, but perhaps a bit too slow and familiar to earn many top votes. Denis
Villeneuve’s Enemy, meanwhile, could be the wild card of
the nomination announcement. It’s so wild and crazy that it could be shut out
altogether, yet people really seem to be responding to this avant-garde-ish
experimental take on José Saramago. It would be a major boon to the CSAs to
bring Jake Gyllenhaal to the awards, too, but last year’s awards made a
noticeable snub of Hollywood stars in favour of Canadian content. Gabrielle
Miller over the supporting cast of Cosmopolis, anyone?
I really must echo Dork Shelf’s Andrew Parker, though, and say that the Canada’s Top Ten for
2013 really is one of the festival’s better lists. CTT shows what a great year
2013 was even if few of the films in the list—and potentially on the CSA
line-up—actually made it to a theatre near you. Many of them are still awaiting
a theatrical release in 2014, which brings us to the trickiest part of the
Canadian Screen Awards’: the double-pronged eligibility.
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| Tom at the Farm |
Step 3: Which films submitted?
Two other Canada’s Top Ten selections could make a strong
showing next week or they could not appear at all. It won’t be for questions of
quality, but rather concerns of release and strategy. Xavier Dolan has found
some favour by being nominated for both Laurence
Anyways and Heartbeats since that
bizarre I Killed My Mother snub, so Tom is a safe bet since it was such a
favourite on the festival circuit last year and Dolan’s films tend to be
submitted during the year of their first appearance. The film is slated for
release in March 2014, so, like Enemy and
Rhymes for Young Ghouls, it will likely hit theatres just in
time to capitalize on any buzz it receives from Canadian awards watchers.
The F Word could
be a different story, though, since it doesn’t come out until later this year.
The film is set for a summer release and director Michael Dowse waited a year
to submit Goon to the awards with its
theatrical year, rather than its festival eligibility, so The F Word seems to be the likeliest of the CTT films to free up a
spot for competition. The F Word can
submit next year since the CSAs allow for films to be submitted in the year of
their festival run (so long as they have played at two CSA approved festivals)
or in the calendar year of theatrical exhibition.
The former guideline usually accounts for many of surprises
of nomination day. Don’t count out films that have been doing well outside of
the major festival circuit or in Toronto theatres. Films like Maïna have enough modest supporters and
awards to bring them more attention, while theatrical hits like Louis Cyr are contenders even if they
never made it outside Quebec. (Cyr is
now on iTunes for those of us who need subtitles, FYI.)
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| The Dirties |
Other films that can and likely will come into play are Matt
Johnson’s sleeper hit The Dirties,
which leads the only two critics’ prizes for Canadian films, Toronto
and Vancouver.
(The TFCA announces its winner of the prize for Best Canadian Film tonight,
actually, so The Dirties or fellow
nominees Gabrielle and Watermark could get a small boost.) The Dirties, a teen-set self-reflexive
comedy, doesn’t really seem like a film that finds its way to conventional
award shows, but it really should be there and probably has enough enthusiastic
supporters to find its way in if enough younger/open-minded voters are sitting
on the nominations committees.
(***UPDATE: Toronto and Vancouver announced their Canadian film winners last night. Watermark and The Dirties were the big winners from Toronto and Vancouver, respectively.)
(***UPDATE: Toronto and Vancouver announced their Canadian film winners last night. Watermark and The Dirties were the big winners from Toronto and Vancouver, respectively.)
As far as other contenders go, Empire of Dirt was a big hit at TIFF and other festivals, although
it might not see a Best Film nomination if the committees decide that
nominations for the film’s greatest assets—the performances and screenplay—are sufficient.
Le démantèlement scored big at the
Canadian box office after its modest run on the festival circuit and could make
Gabriel Arcand a frontrunner in the Best Actor race. Alternatively, L'autre maison joined Gabrielle on the Golden Globes' longlist for Best Foreign Language Film, which suggests a push for recognition (although it could face the same fate as last year's Camion and just be a Québécois affair for the CSAs). Other major Canadian
theatrical releases like The Colony, The Right Kind of Wrong, or The Mortal Instruments bombed at the box
office, so the Canadian Screen Awards will most likely be a festival affair
once again with will-they-or-won’t they contenders like Siddharth and Triptych
either coming into play or waiting until next year.
That’s three steps, which brings us to the final leap:
Predictions for the 2014 Canadian Screen Awards nominations:
*See sidebar for additional reviews!
Best Picture
Best Picture
Le démantèlement
The Dirties
Enemy
Gabrielle
Rhymes for Young
Ghouls
Tom at the Farm
Vic + Flo Saw a Bear
Alt: Empire of Dirt, Siddharth (if there are 8-9 nominees)
What about: L’autre maison, Cas & Dylan, The Husband, Louis Cyr, Sarah Prefers to Run,
Best Director:
Louise Archambault, Gabrielle
Jeff Barnaby, Rhymes
for Young Ghouls
Denis Côté, Vic + Flo Saw a Bear
Xavier Dolan, Tom at the Farm
Denis Côté, Vic + Flo Saw a Bear
Xavier Dolan, Tom at the Farm
Denis Villeneuve, Enemy
Alt: Matt
Johnson, The Dirties
What about: Bruce
McDonald, The Husband, Richie Mehta, Siddharth, Peter Stebbins, Empire
of Dirt
Best Actress:
Sophie Desmarais, Sarah
Prefers to Run
Cara Gee, Empire of
Dirt
Devery Jacobs, Rhymes
for Young Ghouls
Tatiana Maslany, Picture
Day (or Cas & Dylan)
Gabrielle-Marion Rivard, Gabrielle
Alt: Michelle
Giroux, Blood Pressure
What about: Pierrette
Robitaille, Vic + Flo Saw a Bear, Lola
Tash, Molly Maxwell
Best Actor:
Gabriel Arcand, Le démantèlement
Antoine Bertrand, Louis Cyr
Xavier Dolan, Tom at the Farm
Jake Gyllenhaal, Enemy
Matt Johnson, The Dirties
Alt: Rajesh Tailing, Siddharth
What about: Thomas Haden Church, Whitewash; Pier-Gabriel Lajoie, Gerontophilia; Alexandre Landry, Gabrielle (he’ll probably show up in supporting); Maxwell
McCabe-Lokos, The Husband.
Best Supporting
Actress:
Romane Bohringer, Vic
+ Flo Saw a Bear
Mélissa
Désormeaux-Poulin, Gabrielle
Sarah
Gadon, Enemy
Jennifer Podemski, Empire
of Dirt
Gabrielle Rose, The
Dick Knost Show
Alt: Lise Roy, Tom at the Farm
What about: Marie
Brassard, Vic + Flo Saw a Bear (I’m rooting for her); Evelyne Brochu, Tom at
the Farm; Tantoo Cardinal, Maïna; Mélanie Laurent, Enemy
Best Supporting
Actor:
Jay Baruchel, The Art
of the Steal
Walter Borden, Gerontophilia
Pierre-Yves Cardinal, Tom
at the Farm
Glen Gould, Rhymes for
Young Ghouls
Owen Williams, The Dirties
Alt: Terrence
Stamp, The Art of the Steal
What about: Marc-André
Grondin, Vic + Flo; Mark Antony Krupa, Rhymes for Young Ghouls
Best Original
Screenplay:
The Dirties
Gabrielle
Rhymes for Young
Ghouls
Sarah Prefers to Run
Vic + Flo Saw a Bear
Alt: Empire of Dirt
What about: All the Wrong Reasons, The Animal Project, The Art of the Steal,
Gerontophilia, The Husband, Siddhath
Best Adapted
Screenplay:
Enemy
Hold Fast
Louis Cyr
Tom at the Farm
Triptych
Alt: Maïna
What about: The Right Kind of Wrong (or The Grand Seduction, if it submitted)
Best Documentary:
The Ghosts in Our
Machine
The Manor
Our Man in Tehran
Watermark
When Jews Were Funny
Alt: Fight Like Soldiers, Die Like Children
What About: Hi-ho Mistahey!; My Prairie Home; When I Walk
Best Cinematography:
Le démantèlement
Enemy
Gabrielle
Tom at the Farm
Vic + Flo Saw a Bear
Alt: Triptych
What about: The Colony, Maïna, Mama, Molly Maxwell, Rhymes for Young Ghouls, The Right Kind of
Wrong, Siddharth
Best Film Editing:
The Dirties
Enemy
Gabrielle
Rhymes for Young
Ghouls
Vic + Flow Saw a Bear
Alt: The Colony
Best Costumes:
The Colony
Louis Cyr
Maïna
Siddharth
The Mortal
Instruments: City of Bones
Best Production
Design:
The Colony
Louis Cyr
Maïna
Mama
The Mortal
Instruments: City of Bones
Alt: Rhymes for Young Ghouls
Best Score:
Le démantèlement
Enemy
The Legend of Sarila
Louis Cyr
Tom at the Farm
Alt: Gabrielle
What about: Vic + Flo Saw a Bear
Best Make-up:
Cottage Country
Mama
Rhymes for Young
Ghouls
Alt: The Colony
Best Visual Effects:
The Colony
Mama
The Mortal
Instruments: City of Bones
Best Live Action
Short:
Anxious Oswald Greene
Candy
An Extraordinary
Person
A Grand Canal
Noah
Best Animated Short
Film:
The Chaperone
Foxed!
Gloria Victoria
Subconscious Password
Two Weeks – Two Minutes
Alt: Crossing Victoria, The End of Pinky
Best Documentary
Short:
In Guns We Trust
Recollections
Yellow Sticky Notes |
Canadian Anijam
Alt: Jimbo, Mary & Myself
What are you
predicting/hoping to see when the Canadian Screen Award nominations are
announced next Tuesday?
