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| Amy Adams in American Hustle |
Here’s a rundown of how the Globes could (or should) turn:
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| 12 Years a Slave |
Best Picture – Drama
This year’s Golden Globes, in all good award show fashion,
will end with a nail-biter. What will win: Gravity
or 12 Years a Slave? It could be 2009
all over again, where the Globes fêted Avatar
and James Cameron over Oscar winners The
Hurt Locker and Kathryn Bigelow. Gravity
missed a few potential spots, but the screenplay and George Clooney are hardly its
selling points, so one shouldn’t interpret a mere four nominations as a sign of
weakness. Slave, on the other hand,
dominated the dramatic portion of the nominations with seven shout outs, so
it’s a serious threat even if the Globes tend to push the mainstream. My guess
is that the Globes will mirror many of the critics’ groups and split the prize
with Best Film for Slave and Best
Director for Gravity. (One can easily
call the direction of Gravity the
best, but to call the film itself the greatest of them all is to overlook some
serious flaws.) Captain Phillips, Philomena, and Rush should all prep their “It’s just a thrill to be nominated”
speeches.
Win win: 12 Years a Slave
I'd pick: 12 Years a Slave
Snubs: Blue Jasmine is a major snub since the
HFPA has shown enormous love for Allen in the past by nominating ten of his
films for Best Picture and awarding two (Hannah
and Her Sisters and Vicky, Cristina,
Barcelona). I’m baffled that they, of all awards groups, largely passed
over one of the best films that Allen has ever made.
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| American Hustle |
Best Picture – “Comedy”/Musical
There is no doubt that the voters at the Golden Globes loved American Hustle. Hustle, as
some pundits suggest, might be emerging as the frontrunner in the Oscar
race while Gravity and Slave battle out the dramatic side of
things and The Wolf of Wall Street is
mired in silly Zero Dark Thirty-ish
misinterpretation. Hustle is a film
that is almost impossible to enjoy and that might make it stand out over the
other films that are less conventional “comedies”. Hustle will probably be the big winner of the Golden Globes and
become the film to be even if it doesn’t net the highest total number of awards
for the night. It’s on a roll and the Globes could prove that it can’t be beat.
Its strongest competition is Alexander Payne’s Nebraska, which will probably get a Best Actor prize as
conciliation, and the Coens’ Inside Llewyn
Davis, which probably has an outside chance since the Globes like but
hardly love the Coens. I mean, Fargo lost
to Evita!
Will win: American Hustle
I'd pick: Inside Llewyn Davis
Snubs: August: Osage County, although comedy of
the “funny, funny, ha, ha” variety might be the biggest snub of the night.
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| Chiwetel Ejiofor in 12 Years a Slave |
Best Actor – Drama
The nominees: Chiwetel
Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave; Idris
Elba, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom; Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips; Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club; Robert
Redford, All is Lost
The absence of Forest Whitaker in the Golden Globes
fodder of The Butler shows what a
strong and competitive line-up this is. It could really go any way, although
Elba is arguably the dark horse of the lot. Robert Redford should handily win
the prize since he’s acting on a greater level than most of the other nominees
are, but his performance in All is Lost
has lost a bizarre amount of steam. He needs a win here. It’s probably a
three-way race, though, with Ejiofor, Hanks, or McConaughey winning. These are
all great performances in the most widely regarded films of the category. Hanks’
parting shot in Captain Phillips is
the kind of effective and memorable work that begs a viewer to leave the
theatre thinking about awards. Ejiofor and McConaughey, on the other hand,
offer such commanding work throughout the entirety of their films that they are
most likely to trump Hanks and the subtle power of Robert Redford.
Will
win: Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
I’d
pick: Robert Redford, All
is Lost
Snubs:
Ethan Hawke in Before Midnight,
but they call that a comedic performance these days.
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| Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine |
Best Actress – Drama
The
nominees: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine; Sandra
Bullock, Gravity; Judi Dench, Philomena; Emma
Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks; Kate
Winslet, Labor Day
Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine. That is all.
(Will/should
win: Blanchett.)
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| Bruce Dern in Nebraska |
Best Actor – “Comedy”/Musical
The nominees: Christian
Bale, American Hustle; Bruce Dern, Nebraska; Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street; Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis; Joaquin Phoenix, Her
Bruce Dern seems like the obvious frontrunner since his
performance in Nebraska is the only
one of these five to be a consistent presence amongst all of this year’s key
nominations (SAG, BAFTA, Critics’ Choice and such). Dern is also being a smart
campaigner by taking the high road and sticking to the lead category when one
could easily call Will Forte the lead for Nebraska.
Dern also isn’t afraid to invoke his age and the fact that Nebraska is a true comeback, which has held strong in the race
since winning Best Actor at Cannes. Leonardo DiCaprio could be the wild card
since The Wolf of Wall Street might
feature the performance of his career and it is arguably the hot topic film of
the moment. (The latter fact could easily work against him, though.) Bale wins
only if voters are truly overflowing with love for American Hustle while Isaac and Phoenix are potential threats to
Dern’s cred with the art house crowd.
Will win: Bruce
Dern, Nebraska
I’d pick: Leonardo
DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
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| Meryl Streep in August: Osage County |
Best Actress – “Comedy”/Musical
The nominees: Amy
Adams, American Hustle; Julie Delpy, Before Midnight; Greta
Gerwig, Frances Ha;
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Enough Said; Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
This race might be the most important of the night in terms
of telling viewers what to expect from the Oscars. Former Doubt co-stars Amy Adams and Meryl Streep are probably duking it
out for the fifth spot to join the dramatic Best Actress nominees at the Oscars
after Kate Winslet is (sadly) tossed from the line-up. It’s a good example for
why award shows need a flexible number of nominees in the acting categories
since it’s hard to make a case against any of these performances winning. (Delpy;
Louis-Dreyfus, a potential dark horse; and Gerwig are all worthy, too.) Adams
is very impressive in American Hustle—not
only for her award-calibre cleavage but also for her subtle performance—in a
film the Globes clearly loved. Streep, on the other hand, gives one of the best
performances of her career in a film for which the Globes had comparatively
less love. Adams has won zero Globes out of five nominations; Streep has won eight
Globes out of twenty-eight (!) nominations. Adams has been everywhere on the
campaign trail; Streep hasn’t. It’s a tough call since a performance as complex
and gargantuan as Streep’s would normally be an easy call. It's hard to imagine voters not choosing a performance as strong as Streep's Violet Weston, especially it towers above a quartet of fellow nominees that would be worthy winners any other year. Had this been 2011 and
she not just won for The Iron Lady, I’d
guess that Streep would collect the ninth Globe that she deserves. Adams seems
like the one of the four nominated American
Hustle stars with the greatest chance of winning, so if Hustle really is the film to beat in the
Oscar race, Adams wins.
Will win: Amy
Adams, American Hustle
I’d pick: Meryl
Streep, August: Osage County
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| Jared Leto in Dallas Buyers Club |
Best Supporting Actor
The nominees: Barkhad
Abdi, Captain Phillips;
Daniel Brühl, Rush; Bradley
Cooper, American Hustle; Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave; Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
It’s Jared Leto versus Michael Fassbender. Leto’s been the
favourite throughout the early rounds and will likely serve as the token
recognition for Dallas Buyers Club in
the award shows to come. Both are worthy.
Will win: Jared
Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
I’d pick: Michael
Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Snubs: James
Gandolfini, Enough Said; Josh Brolin,
Labour Day
Best Supporting Actress:
The nominees: Sally
Hawkins, Blue Jasmine; Jennifer
Lawrence, American Hustle; Lupita
Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave;
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County; June Squibb, Nebraska
Lupita Nyong’o is a
heavy favourite in this category and for a long time I couldn’t figure out why.
I mused a few weeks ago that despite my admiration for Nyong’o’s performance
and for 12 Years a Slave as the best film of the year, her work just isn’t
on the level that people say it is. I attributed the affection for her work
largely to the brutal violence that is inflicted on Patsey.
Really though, upon
further reflection, Nyong’o didn’t “just get whipped” in 12 Years a Slave.
She faked it.
Her performance is,
in a way, a lot like Melissa McCarthy’s funny turn in Bridesmaids. McCarthy
didn’t actually shit in a sink in the R-rated comedy. She play pooped. The
physical comedy of her performance is so spot-on that one thinks it’s real. It’s
the same logic with Nyong’o, which explains how this seamlessly effective
performance is the one to beat.
Nyong’o’s top
competition is probably Jennifer Lawrence for her scene-stealing turn in American
Hustle or Julia Roberts’ comeback in August: Osage County. Both are worthy,
but I’m rooting for my favourite performance from an actress in a supporting
role this year, Sally Hawkins in Blue Jasmine. Hawkins is the unsung
hero of the Allen film, and interest for Blanchett’s performance could easily
draw the attention she deserves.
Will win: Lupita Nyong’o 12 Years a Slave
I’d pick: Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Snubs: Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels’ The Butler
And the rest of the show:
Best Director:
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Will win: Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
I’d pick: Steve McQueen, 12
Years a Slave
Snubs: Woody Allen, Blue
Jasmine
Best Screenplay:
Her - Spike Jonze
Will win: American Hustle
I’d pick: 12 Years a Slave (but I'd be equally happy with Philomena)
Snubs: Blue Jasmine, Labor Day
Best Animated Film:
Will win: Frozen
I’d pick: Frozen
Snubs: Ernest and Celestine
Best Foreign Language Film:
Blue is the Warmest Color - France
The Great Beauty - Italy
Will win: Blue is the Warmest
Color
I’d pick: Blue is the Warmest
Color
Snubs: The Broken Circle
Breakdown
Best Song:
"Atlas,"
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
"Let it Go," Frozen
"Ordinary Love," Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
"Let it Go," Frozen
"Ordinary Love," Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Will win: “Let it Go”
I’d pick: “Please Mr. Kennedy”
Snubs: “Young and Beautiful,” The
Great Gatsby
Best Score:
Will win: 12 Years a Slave
I’d pick: All is Lost
Snubs: Blancanieves (but this
never would have happened)
