 |
| 12 Years a Slave |
 |
| Rooting for Streep, but we know how that's going done. |
Don’t fret too much about predictions this year, either, for
they are all over the map. Last year saw one of my better scores in the predictions game, as I picked 20/24
on last year’s post, missing only Best Supporting Actor (I said Tommy Lee
Jones), Best Production Design (bias told me to choose Anna Karenina), the Sound Editing tie (I said Life of Pi, so I was way
off the map), and Best Live Action Short (although I switched my bet to Curfew at the Oscar party and brought the
tally up to 21). Expect to do terribly this year, make the Oscars a drinking
game, and give full bragging rights to anyone who scores a perfect set at your
Oscar party.
I joked via Twitter yesterday that one might as well pick
names from a hat since the race is so close. That might be fun, I thought, to
challenge the conjecture of the whole Oscar predictions game and let random
chance play itself out for the show. The hat predicted the Oscar winners by
category, selecting one winner at a time leading up to Best Picture. The hat
acted as the ideal Oscar voter: no outside influence factored its vote besides
a steady hand guiding it towards a nominee. The hat has some surprising
choices: it predicts a Slave shutout!
Herewith, I present my Oscar ruminations followed by the
hat’s predictions.
 |
| 12 Years a Slave |
Best Picture:
What a close race. It’s been discussed endlessly how any of 12 Years a Slave, Gravity, or American Hustle could
win. Virtually any argument for a potential winner also presents an equal
argument against it. The social significance of 12 Years a Slave, for example, might give it an edge over Gravity. (How can anyone ignore the
importance of Steve McQueen’s feat with 12
Years a Slave, especially since the film confronts history so powerfully?) However,
the last time Oscar race had a film with such apparent significance was Brokeback Mountain. A film with
mainstream appeal might therefore trump social significance, which lets a
crowd-pleaser like American Hustle be
the new Crash.
It’s a tough call, since any of the three can gain with the
ranked ballot. None of them will likely amass fifty percent of the #1 votes
(plus one) in the first round, so #2s will come their way and help out either
the bravura work of art (Slave), the
technical achievement (Gravity), or
the fun flick (Hustle). It’s like asking
voters to choose between a Cobb salad, a Big Mac, and a bottle of bubbly.
I think that Gravity
will dominate the awards overall, but the Academy hasn’t given Best Picture to
a film like Gravity in years with
weaker races. Avatar lost to The Hurt Locker, Hugo lost to The King’s
Speech, and Life of Pi lost to Argo. Moreover, Slave has consistently edged out the competition to win Best
Picture prizes at all the key precursors—Globes, Critics’ Choice, BAFTA, and
the Producers’ Guild where it tied with Gravity.
Gravity’s prizes, on the other hand,
usually stop at Best Director. The trend of splitting the prizes of Best
Picture and Best Director began with the critics’ groups and continued straight
through the season, so one can assume that this pattern will honour both films
in this strong year.
American Hustle,
on the other hand, is the potential spoiler. I think it actually has a better
chance than Gravity does, for its
core supporters are very enthusiastic and backing it in all the voting branches
except for make-up. It also falls in line with the escapist, populist nature of
the past three Best Picture winners and seems the likeliest to benefit from the
ranked ballot since it’s the safest of the three frontrunners. (It’s also a lot
of fun, and there is nothing wrong with that!) Finally, the Academy has shown
much favour to the films of David O. Russell by nominating The Fighter for 2010 and Silver
Linings Playbook for 2012, so there is a key fan base for his work in the
Academy and he’s bound to win eventually.
★Will win: 12 Years a Slave
★I’d vote for: since
this category involves a ranked ballot, mine would go as such: 1. 12 Years a Slave 2. The Wolf of Wall Street 3. Philomena
4. American Hustle 5. Gravity 6. Dallas Buyers Club 7. Nebraska
8. Captain Phillips 9. Her.
★Shoulda been there: Inside Llewyn Davis, Blue Jasmine.
 |
| Alfonso Cuaron directing Gravity |
Best Director:
The nominees: Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity; Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave; Alexander Payne, Nebraska; David O. Russell, American Hustle; Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street.
Alfonso Cuarón, as mentioned above, has the prize by a
landslide. He’s the overwhelming favourite in the Best Director prizes that
have been handed out so far. However, I think this fact has largely skewed the
perception of the Best Picture category since the two prizes are generally
taken as a pair. There is no denying the technical achievement of Gravity, but it’s as disposable as the
3D glasses that make it such an awesome experience. As I’ve said to friends
many a-time: I was riveted by Gravity,
but then it was over and I went to Starbucks.
The argument for Alfonso Cuarón to win Best Director also
assumes that a VFX-heavy film categorically constitutes stronger direction than
a film that conveys its power through more traditional means of placing actors
before a camera and using the relationship between the two to derive higher
meaning. Steve McQueen is fearless in this regard, as his conviction with 12 Years a Slave, making it so starkly
brutal, yet beautiful, is an unparalleled feat this year. 12 Years a Slave has the intellectual and emotional power to lead a
voter to call it the best film of the year, while Gravity inspires the transitory awe that allows one to recognize a well-made
film.
★Will win: Alfonso
Cuarón, Gravity
★I’d vote for: Steve
McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
★Shoulda been there: Woody
Allen, Blue Jasmine
 |
| The McConnaissance wins. |
Best Actor
The Nominees: Christian Bale, American Hustle; Bruce Dern, Nebraska; Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street; Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave; Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club.
How many actors had a McConnaissance this year? One?
Yes, Matthew McConaughey probably has a win for Dallas Buyers Club. It will be a close
race, since this is an incredibly strong category; however, McConaughey
delivers in this performance and he checks all the extra boxes that will give
him an edge over stiff competition. He has the great story of a comeback, for he’s
the actor who gave up making rom-com fluff with Kate Hudson and Sarah Jessica
Parker and decided to revisit what it means to be an actor: picking projects
based on roles, not paychecks, and pushing oneself further into unexplored
areas of human nature. His impressive body of work with Mud and The Wolf of Wall
Street adds to this argument, as does his brilliant performance in True Detective, which basically begs
Oscar voters to consider the McConnaissance every week. He also had a strong group
of supporters lobbying for him last year for his work in Magic Mike, Killer Joe, Bernie, and The Paperboy, so there’s also the sense that he’s due. It’s also a
terrific performance (did I mention that yet?) and his receipt of the Golden
Globe, Critics’ Choice, and SAG award make this choice a no-brainer.
Sorry, Leo, Chiwetel, and/or Bruce… you would have had this
any other year!
★Will win: Matthew
McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
★I’d vote for: Chiwetel
Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
★Shoulda been there: Robert
Redford, All is Lost
 |
| Blanchett should easily win. |
Best Actress
The nominees: Amy Adams in American Hustle; Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine; Sandra Bullock in Gravity; Judi Dench in Philomena; Meryl Streep in August: Osage County.
Cate Blanchett kills this category like Jasmine French kills
a Stoli martini. This performance is a jaw-dropper. Her performance in Woody
Allen’s Blue Jasmine is a difficult
role for both its size and the range it demands. Blanchett nails it and she has
annihilated the competition even in a year when Sandra Bullock gave the
performance of her career in a widely regarded film and when Judi Dench and
Meryl Streep gave some of the strongest turns of their careers. If there is any
spoiler, though, it might—might—be Amy Adams. She’s the underdog story of pack,
since she’s never won an Oscar and the other four have, although that argument
is eclipsed by the observation that Blanchett has never won for a lead role and Blue Jasmine offers the performance that should do just that. Oh,
and that theory that says voters will snub her performances due to the Allen/Farrow
controversy is baloney.
★Will win: Cate
Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
★I’d vote: Meryl
Streep in August: Osage County (but
I’m 100% happy with a Blanchett win!)
★Shoulda been there: Kate
Winslet, Labor Day
 |
| Leto, like Blanchett, is one of the night's safe bets. |
Best Supporting Actor
The nominees: Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips; Bradley Cooper, American Hustle; Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave; Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street; Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club.
Jared Leto might be an even safer bet than Blanchett is. He
won all the key precursors he could have—the UK release date of February 7 for Dallas Buyers Club tipped the BAFTA to
Barkhad Abdi—and his performance hasn’t lost momentum since it premiered to
rapturous reviews at TIFF. A relatively weak field has kept the pack at
considerable distance, too, especially since his closest competitor, Michael
Fassbender, didn’t actively campaign. Two-time Academy Award nominee Jonah Hill
will have another year.
★Will win: Jared
Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
★I’d vote for: Michael
Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
★Shoulda been there: James
Gandolfini, Enough Said
 |
| I changed my prediction three times while writing this post, but ended with Nyong'o. |
Best Supporting Actress
The nominees: Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine; Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle; Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave; Julia Roberts, August: Osage County; June Squibb, Nebraska.
This category is the hardest acting prize to call. The
competition between Lupita Nyong’o and Jennifer Lawrence is so stiff! The
former won the SAG and the Critics’ Choice, while the latter won the Golden
Globe and the BAFTA. (One should note Scott Feinberg’s observation
at The Hollywood Reporter, though, that Lawrence’s double-whammy of the two
international bodies is significant.) Nyong’o benefits from having a deeply
moving character that undergoes considerable visceral ordeals. It’s her debut
performance, too, so the psychology her character conveys in her scant
screentime is persuasive. Lawrence, on the other hand, demonstrates how a
terrific performance can elevate not only a character, but also a film. Her
showy performance steals the film from a strong ensemble and turns American Hustle into The Jennifer Lawrence Show. The case
against Lawrence says that her win last year for Silver Linings Playbook could hurt her. She is only 23 years old,
after all, so a second Oscar might seem gratuitous at this point in her career,
especially when Nyong’o makes a strong first impression. My gut says Lawrence,
but each actress represents a win her film potentially needs to take Best
Picture, so I’ll guess Lupita foreshadows Slave’s
Best Picture win.
It’s a shame that Best Supporting Actress is only a two-way
race, though, since it features several award-worthy performances. A recent
revisit to August: Osage County leaves
me wishing I could cast a vote for Julia Roberts, but I’ve been rooting for
Sally Hawkins all season long for her work in Blue Jasmine. Hawkins skillfully plays second string to Blanchett’s
spectacular Jasmine, but Hawkins has the tricky part of making Ginger the
access point for the audience even when Jasmine infects her. It’s a beautifully
understated turn that could and should benefit from all the voters catching Blue Jasmine to marvel at Blanchett.
★Will win: Lupita
Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave?
★I’d Vote for: Sally
Hawkins, Blue Jasmine (But I also really want Julia Roberts to win.)
★Shoulda been there: Oprah.
 |
| 20 Feet from Stardom |
Best Documentary
The doc race is another of the night’s tough calls. Dirty Wars can settle with a nomination
as its reward, especially since it got in over favourites like Stories We Tell and Blackfish. Cutie and the
Boxer is a charmer and it has a small group of passionate fans, but it’s
nothing groundbreaking. The Act of Killing,
on the other hand, does something unique and innovative in documentary by
exploring mass murder not through archival evidence, but through dramatic
recreations played out by the original killers as they revisit the crimes of
the past. Killing is harrowing stuff,
but it’s a difficult watch. It might have won in the years before voting for the
documentary prize opened up, but the inevitable mainstreaming of the prize will
likely benefit two other films: The
Square and 20 Feet from Stardom. The Square is a hot-button topic and it
has generated the most buzz since the nominations, although its perceived
momentum could be attributed more to its subject matter and to the fact that it
was released on Netflix around nomination time and it simply generated a boon
of misleading chatter since everyone reviewed it at the same time. The recent
popularity of The Square could take a
few votes away from The Act of Killing,
which leaves Killing’s early rival 20 Feet from Stardom to take the prize. Morgan
Neville’s Stardom is by far the
strongest film in the category: not only is it an outstandingly well made film,
but its soulful music and stories are easy to access. It has a win by the time
voters hit the “Gimme Shelter” sequence on their screeners.
★Will win: 20 Feet from Stardom
★I’d vote for: 20 Feet from Stardom
★Shoulda been there: Stories We Tell
 |
| The Great Beauty |
Best Foreign Language Film
Best Foreign Language Film, like Best Documentary, has been
opened up to the voting body to have at ’er with greater freedom than ever
before. Previous years required a member to attend a screening of each of the
five nominees in order to cast a ballot, but voters received screeners this
year instead and operated on the honour system that they would/could watch any
film as they pleased. This process ensures that the category receives its
widest reach, but the opinion cast could be less informed. Voters can abstain
in any category, though, if they feel they can’t cast a fair vote.
I’ve seen all the nominees but Palestine’s Omar, and I’ll say that this year’s Best
Foreign Language Film includes a trio of excellent films plus The Hunt. Cambodia’s The Missing Picture is an ingenious, haunting,
and meditative representation of history in the vein of The Act of Killing. (Check back for a review closer to DiverCiné.) It
received the smallest release of the bunch and will thus rely heavily on
screeners, which doesn’t bode well for the film because its unconventional
style and grim subject matter might lead voters to shut it off if they need to
motor through the screener pile. Ditto The
Broken Circle Breakdown—my favourite in the category since I saw it in
November—which could be a dark horse if enough people give it a chance since it’s
an emotionally rich tale buoyed by songs familiar to American voters. The
mainstreaming of the category might prove the greatest benefit to the
overwrought nonsense of The Hunt,
since it’s been a popular film since Mads Mikkelsen won Best Actor at Cannes in
2012 and went on to gain wider fame in “Hannibal” while the film enjoyed a
relatively strong release this summer. Italy’s The Great Beauty, however, has been an across the board favourite
in the absence of France’s Blue is the
Warmest Color. It’s hard not to be in awe of Paolo Sorrentino’s film thanks
to its beautiful craftsmanship, potently relevant satire, and, best of all, its
tangible homage to canonical voices from Italian cinema.
★Will win: The Great Beauty, Italy
★I’d vote for: The Broken Circle Breakdown, Belgium
★Shoulda been there: Gabrielle (Canada) and films like In the House (France) and Blue is the Warmest Color (France again)
that were ineligible due to the category's nonsensical restrictions.
The remaining categories:
Best Original Screenplay
American Hustle -
David O. Russell, Eric Singer
Nebraska – Bob Nelson
★ Will win: American Hustle (could be Her, too)
★ I'd vote: Blue Jasmine
★ Shoulda been there: Inside Llewyn Davis
★ I'd vote: Blue Jasmine
★ Shoulda been there: Inside Llewyn Davis
Best Adapted Screenplay
Before Midnight –
Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke
★ Will win: 12 Years a Slave
★ I'd vote: 12 Years a Slave
★ I'd vote: 12 Years a Slave
★ Shoulda been there: Labor Day, August: Osage County
Best Animated Feature:
Best Cinematography
Nebraska, Phedon Papamichael
Prisoners, Roger Deakins
★ Will win: Gravity
★ I'd vote: Gravity
★ I'd vote: Gravity
★ Shoulda been there: 12 Years a Slave
Best Film Editing:
12 Years a Slave, Joe Walker
American Hustle, Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers, and Alan Baumgarten
Captain Phillips, Christopher Rouse
Dallas Buyers Club, Jean-Marc Vallée (as John Mac McMurphy) and Martin Pensa
American Hustle, Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers, and Alan Baumgarten
Captain Phillips, Christopher Rouse
Dallas Buyers Club, Jean-Marc Vallée (as John Mac McMurphy) and Martin Pensa
Gravity, Alfonso Cuarón and Mark Sanger
★ Will win: American Hustle (one of the toughest calls of the night!)
★ I'd vote: American Hustle
★ I'd vote: American Hustle
★ Shoulda been there: Rush
Best Score:
The Book Thief, John Williams
Saving Mr. Banks, Thomas Newman
★ Will win: Gravity
★ I'd vote: Philomena
★ I'd vote: Philomena
★ Shoulda been there: All is Lost
Best Costumes:
The Grandmaster, William Chang Suk Ping
The Great Gatsby, Catherine Martin
The Invisible Woman, Michael O'Connor
12 Years a Slave, Patricia Norris
12 Years a Slave, Patricia Norris
★ Will win: The Great Gatsby
★ I'd vote: American Hustle
★ I'd vote: American Hustle
★ Shoulda been there: Blue Jasmine
Best Production Design:
American Hustle, Judy Becker (Production Design); Heather Loeffler (Set Decoration)
Gravity, Andy Nicholson (Production Design); Rosie Goodwin and Joanne Woollard (Set Decoration)
Gravity, Andy Nicholson (Production Design); Rosie Goodwin and Joanne Woollard (Set Decoration)
The Great Gatsby, Catherine Martin (Production Design); Beverley Dunn (Set Decoration)
Her, K.K. Barrett (Production Design); Gene Serdena (Set Decoration)
12 Years a Slave, Adam Stockhausen (Production Design); Alice Baker (Set Decoration)Her, K.K. Barrett (Production Design); Gene Serdena (Set Decoration)
★ Will win: The Great Gatsby
★ I'd vote: The Great Gatsby (or Her. I like how it conceives the future, but I'm not a fan of the self-awareness)
★ I'd vote: The Great Gatsby (or Her. I like how it conceives the future, but I'm not a fan of the self-awareness)
★ Shoulda been there: Inside Llewyn Davis
Best Visual Effects:
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton and Eric Reynolds
Iron Man 3, Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Erik Nash and Dan Sudick
The Lone Ranger, Tim Alexander, Gary Brozenich, Edson Williams and John Frazier
Iron Man 3, Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Erik Nash and Dan Sudick
The Lone Ranger, Tim Alexander, Gary Brozenich, Edson Williams and John Frazier
Star Trek Into Darkness, Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Ben Grossmann and Burt Dalton
★ Will win: Gravity
★ I'd vote: Gravity
★ I'd vote: Gravity
Best Sound Mixing
Gravity, Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead and Chris MunroThe Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Michael Semanick and Tony Johnson
Inside Llewyn Davis, Skip Lievsay, Greg Orloff and Peter F. Kurland
Lone Survivor, Andy Koyama, Beau Borders and David Brownlow
★ Will win: Gravity (switched from Captain Phillips)
★ I'd vote: Inside Llewyn Davis
★ I'd vote: Inside Llewyn Davis
Best Sound Editing
All is Lost, Steve Boeddeker and Richard HymnsCaptain Phillips, Oliver Tarney
Gravity , Glenn Freemantle
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Brent Burge and Chris Ward
Lone Survivor, Wylie Stateman
★ Will win: Gravity
★ I'd vote: All is Lost
★ I'd vote: All is Lost
Best Hair and Make-up:
★ Will win: Dallas Buyers Club
★ I'd vote: The Lone Ranger (by default?)
★ Shoulda been there: American Hustle
★ I'd vote: The Lone Ranger (by default?)
★ Shoulda been there: American Hustle
Best Song:
"Happy," Despicable Me 2
"Let it Go," Frozen
“The Moon Song,” Her
"Ordinary Love," Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
★ Will win: "Let it Go"
★ I'd vote: "Let it Go"
★ I'd vote: "Let it Go"
★ Shoulda been there: "Young and Beautiful" and "A Little Party Never Killed Nobody" from The Great Gatsby, plus "Desperation," 20 Feet from Stardom and "Please Mr. Kennedy," Inside Llewyn Davis, which both were deemed ineligible.
Best Short Film - Animated:
Get a Horse
Mr. Hublot
Possessions
Room on the Broon
★ Will win: Get a Horse
★ I'd vote: Abstain
★ Shoulda been there: Gloria Victoria
★ I'd vote: Abstain
★ Shoulda been there: Gloria Victoria
Best Short Film - Live Action:
Helium
Just Before Losing Everything
That Wasn't Me
The Voorman Problem
★ Will win: Just Before Losing Everything
★ I'd vote: Just Before Losing Everything
★ I'd vote: Just Before Losing Everything
Best Documentary Short Subject:
Facing Fears
Karama Has No Walls
The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
Private Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall
★ Will win: The Lady in Number 6
★ I'd vote: Abstain
★ I'd vote: Abstain
 |
| The hat has Philomania! |
The Hat’s Predictions:
Best Picture:
Philomena
Best Director:
Martin Scorsese,
The Wolf of Wall Street
Best Actor
Christian Bale, American Hustle
Best Actress
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
-THE HAT KNOWS HOW TO PICK ‘EM!
Best Supporting Actor
Bradley Cooper,
American Hustle
Best Supporting Actress
June Squibb, Nebraska
Best Original Screenplay
Blue Jasmine -
Woody Allen
Best Adapted Screenplay
Before Midnight –
Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke
Best Documentary Feature:
The Act of Killing
Best Animated Feature:
Despicable Me 2
Best Foreign Language Film:
The Missing Picture - Cambodia
Best Cinematography
Gravity, Emmanuel Lubezki
-smart hat!
Best Film Editing
Dallas Buyers Club - Jean-Marc Vallée (as John Mac McMurphy) and Martin Pensa
Best Cinematography
Gravity, Emmanuel Lubezki
-smart hat!
Best Film Editing
Dallas Buyers Club - Jean-Marc Vallée (as John Mac McMurphy) and Martin Pensa
Best Score:
Gravity, Steven
Price
Best Costumes:
American Hustle,
Michael Wilkinson
The Invisible Woman, Michael
O'Connor
-tie!
Best Production Design:
Her, K.K.
Barrett (Production Design); Gene Serdena (Set Decoration)
Best Visual Effects:
The
Lone Ranger, Tim Alexander, Gary Brozenich, Edson Williams and
John Frazier
Best Sound Mixing
Captain Phillips, Chris
Burdon, Mark Taylor, Mike Prestwood Smith and Chris Munro
Best Sound Editing
Captain Phillips, Oliver
Tarney
Best Make-up:
Dallas Buyers Club, Adruitha
Lee and Robin Mathews
Best Song:
“Let it Go,” Frozen
Best Short Film - Animated:
Feral
Best Short Film - Live Action:
Just Before Losing Everything
Best Documentary Short Subject:
Karama Has No Walls
I’m not too worried about coming last in the pool after
seeing what the hat picked!
