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Rosamund Pike and Ben Affleck in Gone Girl. |
There are three kinds of guests, however, when it comes to
parties, even black-tie affairs like the Oscars. There are guests who show up
early, partiers who come on time, and folks who inevitably show up fashionably
five minutes late.... Let’s get this party started!
2014 marks a good year for early birds, but they’re mostly
independent underdogs that could struggle through the gauntlet. Mainstream
films and festival hits tend to push out the early critical favourites.
Rapturously acclaimed film such as Before
Midnight or Lee Daniels’ The Butler
seemed like shoo-ins (comparatively) last summer, but they nearly became
afterthoughts once the race was done, although Midnight managed a well-deserved screenplay nomination. Hilarious
hindsight makes last year’s claim of The Butler as “the
most secure early Oscar contender” seem laughable. (Oops.) The Butler probably lost much of its support to 12 Years a Slave and maybe to the feel-good
Weinstein flick Philomena, and it
shows that even early favourites (with over $100 million at the box office, no
less) aren’t as safe as they seem this early in the conversation.
There’s a Winter’s
Bone and a Kids Are All Right,
though, for every little film that couldn’t, and juggernauts like Cate
Blanchett sometimes gain steam early and create a distance that nobody can catch. An early
bird simply needs to be loved, not merely liked, to keep afloat through six
months of campaigning. People love two of the year’s early favourites, The Grand Budapest Hotel and Boyhood, and either one seems like a
contender for the months ahead. Both films have the critical support,
respectable box office, and word of mouth appeal that help a film last through
to the end. Budapest seems likeliest
to have a ‘do-or die’ moment at the Golden Globes, especially depending on
fellow Fox Searchlight film Birdman’s
contention as a comedy, but it could just as easily find love in numerous
industry guilds thanks to its impeccable craftwork, cast, and snappy script.
Boyhood, on the
other hand, looks to be the wild card of the season. It’s a critical favourite
for sure, leading the Criticwire and MetaCritic score alike, but
Richard Linklater films don’t have the best history with the Academy outside
the writers’ branch. Boyhood needs
critics and audiences to make some noise again when it hits home video, and the
recent announcement that Patricia Arquette is smartly campaigning in the
relatively wide-open Best Supporting Actress race and not the recently
competitive Best Actress race almost ensures that the film will be in the
conversation. The film’s twelve-year journey guarantees some Best Director nods
in the critical circles, too, and makes Boyhood an early favourite among the
smart-house crowd.
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Reese Witherspoon stars as Cheryl Strayed in Wild. Photo courtesy Fox Searchlight |
The Guests who Arrive on Time
Festival season marks the unofficial start time for guests
to arrive to the party. The Imitation Game showed up punctually with thunderous support at Telluride and TIFF,
where it scored the People’s Choice Award. The smart timing and grand reception
make it a reasonable bet for a nominee, although it might not live up to high
expectations. Ditto Birdman, which
drew enthusiasm with an exclamation point at Venice and a comparatively lesser
degree of enthusiasm at Telluride (just a full stop), although it also looks
like a frontrunner. It might not have the same art house/mainstream crossover
appeal of The Imitation Game, which
could win the whole thing if it plays its King’s
Speech card just right.
Ditto my festival favourite Wild, which somewhat fell victim to Telluride’s blowback that a film is
not worth talking about if it is not a guaranteed Best Picture winner. Support
for homeboy Jean-Marc Vallée was stronger in Toronto, though, and crowds and
critics at both festivals agree that Reese Witherspoon is in it to win it for
Best Actress. Add to Wild’s candidacy its strong screenplay, cinematography, editing, and a radiant
performance by Laura Dern, and I honestly just don’t see how one can omit it
from the Best Picture race. (Fox Searchlight also runs the strongest campaigns from my perspective, so that factor also counts unless they go full throttle for Birdman alone.) Any film with a legitimate shot in at least six
categories must also be accounted for in Best Picture, especially in the era of
5 to 10 possible nominees. Vallée’s Dallas
Buyers Club is a good example of this guideline.
The festival front has its most aggressive contender in the
recent NYFF opener Gone Girl, which
has a booming response from critics. Questions of populism and scattered claims
of lesser Fincher are moot when a film becomes the first real mainstream
contender of the year and survives its loudest critical hurdle. The film opens
this Friday and it almost inevitably seems poised to connect with audiences who
love Gillian Flynn’s deliciously readable book.
If there is any film from the festival circuit that seems
most likely to shake up the race, it’s probably Still Alice, which is arguably the sleeper hit of the Toronto
International Film Festival. Julianne’s Moore’s exceptional performance alone
will probably get her the award on merit, and her even bolder (but far less
Oscar-friendly) performance in Maps to the Stars only makes her worthiness even greater. She’s also long overdue
for Academy recognition, but an Oscar for Still
Alice would come just as easily if she already had one for Boogie Nights. (Which she should…) The
film itself could be an under-the-radar player if voters, critics, and
audiences approach it as simply a showcase for Moore, and could potentially join Foxcatcher in bringing a rare Best Picture nomination for Sony Pictures Classics, which hasn't had much luck in the top category outside of summer releases (Midnight in Paris) and foreign films (Amour, Crouching Tiger.) Still Alice could take many viewers by surprise given the
sensitivity with which directors/writers Richard Glatzer and Wash Westmoreland
depict Alzheimer’s, and it’s the kind of genuinely moving film that invites
lasting power and support. Kristen Stewart’s revelatory performance should also
not be dismissed.
Then there’s Unbroken.
Angelina Jolie’s hotly anticipated Christmas Day release has Oscar written all
over it. Strong source material, a passionate (and talented) director, a
quartet of lauded screenwriters, a cast of up-and-coming stars, and the
genuinely moving true story of Olympian/war hero/motivational speaker Louis
Zamperini, who passed away this summer. Unbroken
passed on the fall festivals, which makes sense since it wouldn’t be able to
capitalize on the buzz when it opens months from now, and it stands a better
chance for a warm reception in the holiday season when audiences generally
embrace family-friendly and life-affirming films.
December 25th also brings the Amy Adams Oscar hopeful Big Eyes, Ava DuVernay’s Selma, Clint Eastwood’s American Sniper, and the Rob Marshall/Meryl Streep musical Into the Woods, although the latter film's entry into the Oscar race marks Disney's 50th anniversary of its last Best Picture nomination for a live action film: Mary Poppins. The holidays are going to be crazier than ever. Get those screeners out early, guys!
December 25th also brings the Amy Adams Oscar hopeful Big Eyes, Ava DuVernay’s Selma, Clint Eastwood’s American Sniper, and the Rob Marshall/Meryl Streep musical Into the Woods, although the latter film's entry into the Oscar race marks Disney's 50th anniversary of its last Best Picture nomination for a live action film: Mary Poppins. The holidays are going to be crazier than ever. Get those screeners out early, guys!
Without further ado, the first set of Oscar predictions for
2014:
(I'm also going with nine films from now on for Best Picture, rather than the hypothetical ten.)
(I'm also going with nine films from now on for Best Picture, rather than the hypothetical ten.)
Best Picture:
Birdman
Foxcatcher
Gone Girl
The Theory of
Everything
Unbroken
Wild
Wild
Almost put: Still Alice
What about: Big Eyes,
Fury, Into the Woods, Inherent Vice,
Interstellar, Mr. Turner, Selma,
Whiplash
Best Director
David Fincher, Gone
Girl
Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Birdman
Angelina Jolie, Unbroken
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
Almost put: Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
What about: Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel; Ava DuVernay, Selma; Mike Leigh, Mr. Turner; James Marsh, The Theory of
Everything; Rob Marshall, Into the Woods; Jean-Marc Vallée, Wild.
Best Actor
Steve Carrell, Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Eddie Redmayne, The
Theory of Everything
Almost put: Philip Seymour Hoffman, A Most Wanted Man
What about: Ben Affleck, Gone
Girl; Ellar Coltrane, Boyhood;
Oscar Isaac, A Most Violent Year; Tommy Lee Jones, The Homesman; Bill Murray, St.
Vincent; Jack O’Connell, Unbroken; David Oyelowo, Selma; Joaquin Phoenix, Inherent Vice; Timothy Spall, Mr. Turner; Channing Tatum, Foxcatcher; Christoph Waltz, Big Eyes.
Best Actress
Amy Adams, Big Eyes
Emily Blunt, Into the Woods
Rosamund Pike, Gone
Girl
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Almost put: Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
What about: Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year; Marion Cotillard, The Immigrant; Marion
Cotillard, Two Days, One Night; Meryl Streep, Into the Woods; Hilary Swank, The
Homesman; Mia Wasikowska, Tracks.
Save it for the Screenies: Anne Dorval, Mommy; Julianne Moore, Maps to the Stars
Best Supporting Actor:
Benicio Del Toro, Inherent
Vice
Miyavi, Unbroken
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
JK Simmons, Whiplash
Channing Tatum, Foxcatcher
Almost Put: Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
What about: Alec Baldwin, Still Alice; Josh Brolin, Inherent
Vice; Domhnall Gleeson, Unbroken Edward Norton, Birdman
Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Laura Dern, Wild
Kristen Stewart, Still Alice
Meryl Streep, Into the
Woods
Hilary Swank, The
Homesman
Almost put: Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
What about: Marion Bailey, Mr. Turner; Emily Blunt, Into
the Woods; Anna Kendrick, Into the
Woods, Emma Stone, Birdman. Tilda
Swinton, Snowpiercer.
Best Original Screenplay
Birdman – Alejandro
G. Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Armando Bo
Boyhood – Richard
Linklater
Foxcatcher – E.
Max Frye, Dan Futterman
The Grand Budapest Hotel– Wes Anderson
Mr. Turner – Mike
Leigh
Almost put: Whiplash
– Damien Chazelle
What about: A Most
Violent Year, J.C. Chandor; Big Eyes
– Scott Alexander, Larry Karaszewski;
Best Adapted Screenplay
Gone Girl -
Gillian Flynn
The Imitation Game – Graham Moore
Inherent Vice –
Paul Thomas Anderson
Still Alice -
Richard Glatzer, Wash Westmoreland
Wild – Nick Hornby
Almost put: The Theory
of Everything – Anthony McCarten
What about: Into the
Woods – James Lapine; A Most Wanted Man - Andrew Bovell; Unbroken –
Joel Coen, Ethan Coen, Richard Lagravenese, William Nicholson
Best Film Editing:
Birdman
Gone Girl
Unbroken
Almost put: Interstellar
What about: Foxcatcher,
Fury, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game , Into the Woods
Best Cinematography:
Birdman
Gone Girl
Mr. Turner
Unbroken
Almost put: Interstellar
Best Costumes:
Into the Woods
Mr. Turner
What about: Belle,
Big Eyes, Exodus, Inherent Vice, Magic in the Moonlight
Best Production Design:
Into the Woods
Mr.
Turner
Almost put: The Imitation Game
What about: Big Eyes, The Hobbit 3, Inherent Vice, Interstellar
Best Score:
Gone Girl – Trent
Reznor, Atticus Ross
The Grand Budapest Hotel– Alexandre Desplat
The Imitation Game – Alexandre Desplat
Interstellar –
Hans Zimmer
The Lego Movie –
Marc Mothersbaugh
What about: Birdman,
The Judge, The Theory of Everything, Under the Skin
Sound Mixing:
Gone Girl
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Unbroken
What about: Edge of Tomorrow, Fury, Get on Up, The Hobbit 3, Snowpiercer
Sound Editing:
Fury
Interstellar
Transformers 4
What about: The Lego
Movie, Snowpiercer, Unbroken
Visual Effects:
Guardians of the
Galaxy
Interstellar
Best Make-up
Into the Woods
Unbroken
What about: Foxcatcher, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Hobbit 3, Mr. Turner, Snowpiercer,
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Best Song:
“Rainbows,” Into the
Woods
“What is Love?,” Rio 2
Best Documentary Feature:
The Case Against 8
Finding Vivian Meier
Almost put: I am Big Bird: The Carroll Spinney Story (eligible?)
What about: Sunshine Superman, Tales of
the Grim Sleeper, The Look of Silence
(will it be released this year?), Red
Army
Best Foreign Language Film:
Beloved Sisters -
Germany
Ida - Poland
Mommy – Canada
Two Days, One Night
- Belgium
Wild Tails – Argentina
Almost put: Force Majeure – Sweden
List of submitted films on Wikipedia.
*Please see The Film Experience for the best and most comprehensive coverage on
this category.
Best Animated Film:
Big Hero 6
Book of Life
The Boxtrolls
Tale of Princess Kaguya
Also eligible: Aunt Hilda!, The Boy and the World
Best Animated Short:
[awaiting shortlist for additional four films]
Best Live Action Short:
[awaiting shortlist]
Short Documentary Short:
[awaiting shortlist]