Oscar Predictions: Round 4 - Golden Globe and SAG Edition

Ellar Coltrane (Mason), and Ethan Hawke (Mason Sr.) in Boyhood.
Photo Credit: Matt Lankes. Courtesy of IFC Films / Mongrel Media.

It’s shaping up to be quite the wild and suspenseful award season! Only a few critics’ groups have announced their awards so far with the New York Film Critics Circle and comparatively less influential National Board of Review giving out very diverse kudos in which presumed Oscar-frontrunenr Boyhood dominated one and was absent from the other. (Boston is also announcing today, as are the LA critics) The New York Film Critics Circle marks the first of the season’s shake-ups, with Marion Cotillard making a heavy upset (if a wholly deserved one) in the Best Actress race for her double-threat of performances in The Immigrant and Two Days, One Night. Cotillard has been a dark horse—a very dark horse—for her strong performance in The Immigrant. It’s one that the here blog has been rooting for and hoping for critics to champion, and her NYFCC win following her Independent Spirit nomination and today's Boston win for both films shows that critics and audiences are indeed rallying behind The Immigrant much like they did when the film struggled to secure a theatrical release earlier this year.

Marion Cotillard in The Immigrant

What makes this year’s Best Actress race, which has a slim field of very strong contenders, is how bizarre the campaign trails at the Weinstein Company seem set on sinking The Immigrant despite obvious support. TWC and many writers/pundits assumed that Amy Adams’ performance in Tim Burton’s Big Eyes to be the distributor’s most viable Best Actress contender, but a disappointing reception for the film itself leaves Adams with modest awards prospects even though her performance itself is being well received. Big Eyes is a comedy, though, so the Globes will either give Adams a much needed boost or kill her chances altogether.

The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby

The drama category of the Globes, however, could add another TWC hopeful to the quartet of actresses—Julianne Moore (Still Alice), Reese Witherspoon (Wild), Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl) and Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)—who are leading the Best Actress race. Don’t expect Marion Cotillard to be here for The Immigrant, though, since TWC campaigners are opting not to listen to the voices rallying behind her performance and are instead trying to revive support for a film that the distributor also sunk this year. That performance, of course, is Jessica Chastain’s remarkable turn in the Him/Her two-parter The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby. (They’re campaigning for Her, specifically.) It’s a great performance for sure, but Rigby has struggled even more than The Immigrant has to reach audiences and the hybrid format of the film makes awards recognition very tricky. Even Canadian distributor eOne sandbagged Eleanor and pulled it from their release schedule altogether in the week it was set for release. All this scrambling could leave the Weinsteins without a Best Actress nominee altogether—and, if anyone’s counting, they actually have three legit contenders they’ve dumped this season if one includes Mia Wasikowska’s performance in Track, which would make my top five if I had a ballot. The secure four actresses and shaky fifth slot probably mean that Hilary Swank is in for The Homesman since she's been an underlying consistency this season, although Cotillard’s turn in Two Days, One Night might benefit most of all. The same goes for the SAG awards, which also announce their nominations this week, although the efforts for Cotillard and Chastain are probably coming a bit too late to make an impact in such a large voting body. The overlap between the Screen Actors Guild and the Academy is significant, though, so the SAG nominations bode especially well for the Best Actress nominees and whichever films land the ensemble awards. Will Gone Girl become the major threat it deserves to be this week?

Outside of the Best Actress race, the Best Picture showdown almost inevitably looks to crown both Boyhood and Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) in the Drama and Comedy/Musical categories, respectively, and keep them sitting even leading up to the finish line. Arthouse hit Boyhood isn’t really typical Globes fodder—they’re far more likely to nominate Unbroken since it meets the well-crafted vanilla-flavoured studio stuff they favour like Rush, Frost/Nixon, and Charlie Wilson’s War—while The Imitation Game has enough arthouse credibility, mainstream appeal, and star power to go all the way with the Hollywood Foreign Press.

Selma

The big wild card on the dramatic front is Selma. Selma has strong support, but few “Best of the year” remarks so far, so it really needs to show up here, and it’s hard to say if it will since the HFPA have shown support for the Oprah-produced The Great Debaters but then snubbed Oprah’s The Butler last year. The Globes, however, have a reputation to being critics’ group most prone to influence by junkets, screenings, and favours, and Selma director Ava DuVernay built a solid reputation as a publicist (working on campaigns for films like The Help) before moving to filmmaking full time, so the combination of strategy from a filmmaker’s perspective could add to the foundational support for Selma and make it a serious player. Any of the dramatic contenders could conceivably win here, so the nominations will be very exciting.

Michael Keaton as Riggan in Birdman. Photo courtesy of Fox Searchlight Pictures

Best Comedy/Musical, however, is a different story. This year isn’t an especially strong one for comedy. Birdman is a shoo-in for both a nomination and the win. Add Into the Woods, since the Globes love their musicals and the comedy field is sparse, while The Grand Budapest Hotel is a dark horse. Otherwise, look to The Hollywood Reporter’s breakdown of what is competing as comedy and what is competing as a drama for more clues. This year’s distinctions seem less dubious than those of previous years do—My Week with Marilyn, anyone?—since Birdman is very much a satire. Expect at least one mild surprise here, maybe Chef, Get on Up, or even Obvious Child. This year’s Oscar race is dead serious, so any funny film, especially Woods and Budapest, could benefit from a boost at the Globes.

Without further ado, here are predictions for this year’s Golden Globe and SAG nominations.

Oscar predix are also update below. Please feel free to add your own guesses in the comments!

Golden Globes:

(Nominations announced Dec. 11)
 

Best Film - Drama

Boyhood
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
Selma
Unbroken 

Alt: The Theory of Everything

Best Film - Comedy/Musical

Birdman
Chef
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Inherent Vice
Into the Woods

Alt: Get on Up
What about: Top Five

Best Director:

Ava DuVernay, Selma
David Fincher, Gone Girl

Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Birdman

Richard Linklater, Boyhood

Morten Tyldum,  The Imitation Game

Alt: Angelina Jolie, Unbroken
 What about: Rob Marshall, Into the Woods  

Best Actress - Drama

Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything

Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Hilary Swank, The Homesman 

Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Alt: Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
What about: Anne Dorval, Mommy

Best Actor - Drama

Ben Affleck, Gone Girl
Steve Carrell, Foxcatcher

Benedict Cumberbatch,  The Imitation Game

David Oyelowo, Selma

Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

 Alt: Timothy Spall, Mr. Turner

Best Actress - Musical/Comedy

Amy Adams, Big Eyes
Emily Blunt, Into the Woods
Shirley MacLaine, Elsa & Fred
Jenny Slate, Obvious Child
Kristen Wiig, The Skeleton Twins

Alt: Keira Knightley, Begin Again
What about: Julianne Moore, Maps to the Stars

Best Actor - Comedy/Musical

Chadwick Boseman, Get on Up
Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Bill Murray, St. Vincent

Joaquin Phoenix, Inherent Vice

Alt: James Corden, Into the Woods
 

Best Supporting Actress:

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Laura Dern, Wild
Keira Knightley,  The Imitation Game

Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
Emma Stone, Birdman

Alt:  Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year

Best Supporting Actor:

Robert Duvall, The Judge
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman

Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher

J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Alt: Josh Brolin, Inherent Vice

Best Screenplay:

Birdman – Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Armando Bo

Boyhood – Richard Linklater

Gone Girl - Gillian Flynn

The Grand Budapest Hotel – Wes Anderson 

The Imitation Game – Graham Moore

Alt: Selma

Best Foreign Language Film:

Force Majeure – Sweden

Ida - Poland
Leviathan - Russia
Two Days, One Night - Belgium

Wild Tails – Argentina

What about: Mommy – Canada (we rarely show up at the Globes)

Best Animated Film:

Big Hero 6

Book of Life
The Boxtrolls

How to Train Your Dragon 2

The Lego Movie

Best Score:

Birdman - Antonio Sanchez
Gone Girl– Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross

The Imitation Game  – Alexandre Desplat

Interstellar – Hans Zimmer
Noah - Clint Mansell

Best Song:

"The Hanging Tree," The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1

“Lost Stars,” Begin Again

“Everything is Awesome,” The Lego Movie
"Mercy Is," Noah
"Miracles," Unbroken
  

SAG nominations:

(Announced Dec. 10)

Best Ensemble:

Birdman

Boyhood

Gone Girl

The Imitation Game
Into the Woods 

*I feel like an idiot for excluding The Grand Budapest Hotel. I think Boyhood could potentially be out, since the individual performances by Arquette and Hawke outweigh the overall strength of the actors (some of whom were simply too young at various stages of shooting to do anything other than be their natural selves), but I think the twelve-year commitment counts for something and makes it simply too difficult to overlook what the actors created with their director.

Best Actor:

Steve Carrell, Foxcatcher

Benedict Cumberbatch,  The Imitation Game

Michael Keaton, Birdman
David Oyelowo, Selma

Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Best Actress:

Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything

Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl

Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Best Supporting Actor:

Josh Brolin, Inherent Vice
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman

Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher

J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Best Supporting Actress:

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Laura Dern, Wild
Keira Knightley,  The Imitation Game

Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
Emma Stone, Birdman

Updated Oscar Predictions:

*New or moved

Best Picture:

Birdman

Boyhood

Foxcatcher

Gone Girl

The Grand Budapest Hotel

The Imitation Game

Selma* 
The Theory of Everything

Unbroken
Wild

Almost put: Into the Woods*

What about: Interstellar*, Mr. Turner, Still Alice, Whiplash

Best Director

Ava DuVernay, Selma*
David Fincher, Gone Girl

Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Birdman

Richard Linklater, Boyhood

Morten Tyldum,  The Imitation Game

Almost put: Angelina Jolie,  Unbroken*

What about: Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel; Mike Leigh, Mr. Turner; James Marsh, The Theory of Everything; Rob Marshall, Into the Woods; Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher*; Jean-Marc Vallée, Wild.

Best Actor

Steve Carrell, Foxcatcher

Benedict Cumberbatch,  The Imitation Game

Michael Keaton, Birdman
David Oyelowo, Selma*

Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Almost put: Ben Affleck, Gone Girl*

What about: Ellar Coltrane, Boyhood; Ralph Fiennes The Grand Budapest Hotel; Philip Seymour Hoffman, A Most Wanted Man; Oscar Isaac, A Most Violent Year; Jack O’Connell, Unbroken; Joaquin Phoenix, Inherent Vice; Timothy Spall, Mr. Turner; Channing Tatum, Foxcatcher.

Best Actress

Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything

Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Hilary Swank, The Homesman

Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Almost put: Emily Blunt, Into the Woods

What about: Amy Adams, Big Eyes; Marion Cotillard, The Immigrant; Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night; Anne Dorval, Mommy*.

Best Supporting Actor:

Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman

Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher

J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Channing Tatum, Foxcatcher

Almost Put:

What about: Josh Brolin, Inherent Vice; Benicio Del Toro, Inherent Vice; Robert Duvall, The Judge
 

Best Supporting Actress

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Laura Dern, Wild
Keira Knightley,  The Imitation Game

Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

Almost put: Kristen Stewart, Still Alice

What about: Carrie Coon, Gone Girl; Anna Kendrick, Into the Woods, Emma Stone, Birdman, Tilda Swinton,  Snowpiercer, Naomi Watts, Birdman/St. Vincent.

Best Original Screenplay

Birdman – Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Armando Bo

Boyhood – Richard Linklater

Foxcatcher – E. Max Frye, Dan Futterman

The Grand Budapest Hotel– Wes Anderson

Mr. Turner – Mike Leigh

Almost put: Whiplash – Damien Chazelle

What about: Chef - Jon Favreau; A Most Violent Year, J.C. Chandor

Best Adapted Screenplay

Gone Girl - Gillian Flynn

The Imitation Game – Graham Moore

Selma - Paul Webb* 
The Theory of Everything – Anthony McCarten

Wild – Nick Hornby

Almost put: Inherent Vice – Paul Thomas Anderson

What about: Into the Woods – James Lapine; A Most Wanted Man - Andrew Bovell;  Still Alice - Richard Glatzer, Wash Westmoreland*; Unbroken – Joel Coen, Ethan Coen, Richard Lagravenese, William Nicholson

Best Film Editing:

Boyhood

Birdman

Gone Girl

Interstellar

Wild

Almost put: Unbroken

What about: Foxcatcher, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game , Into the Woods, Selma*, Whiplash

Best Cinematography:

Birdman

Gone Girl

Interstellar
Mr. Turner

Unbroken

Almost put: Wild

What about: The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Homesman*,  The Imitation Game, Into the Woods, Selma,  Snowpiercer, The Theory of Everything

Best Costumes:

The Grand Budapest Hotel

The Imitation Game
Into the Woods 

Maleficent

Mr. Turner

What about: Belle, Big Eyes, Exodus, The Homesman*,  Inherent Vice, Magic in the Moonlight, Selma

Best Production Design:

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Interstellar
Into the Woods

Maleficent

Mr. Turner          

Almost put:  Snowpiercer

What about: Big Eyes, The Hobbit 3,The Imitation Game, Inherent Vice

Best Score:

Birdman - Antonio Sanchez
Gone Girl– Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross

The Grand Budapest Hotel– Alexandre Desplat

The Imitation Game  – Alexandre Desplat

Interstellar – Hans Zimmer and the church organ

What about: The Homesman *, The Judge, The Lego Movie, Noah, The Theory of Everything, Unbroken, Under the Skin

Sound Mixing:

Godzilla

Gone Girl

Interstellar

Into the Woods

Unbroken

What about: Birdman,  Edge of Tomorrow, Fury, Get on Up, The Hobbit 3,  Snowpiercer

Sound Editing:

Fury

Godzilla

Interstellar

Transformers 4
Unbroken*

What about: Edge of Tomorrow*, The Lego Movie,  Snowpiercer

Visual Effects:

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes*

Godzilla

Guardians of the Galaxy

Interstellar

Maleficent

What about: Birdman, Noah,  Snowpiercer, Transformers 4

Best Make-up

Into the Woods

Maleficent

Unbroken

What about: Birdman, Foxcatcher, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Hobbit 3, Mr. Turner, Snowpiercer, The Theory of Everything, X-Men: Days of Future Past

Best Song:

“Lost Stars,” Begin Again

“A Step You Can’t Take Back,” Begin Again

"The Hanging Tree," The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1 *
“Rainbows,” Into the Woods

“Everything is Awesome,” The Lego Movie

What about: “Tell Me If You Wanna Go Home,”Begin Again;  “Like a Fool,” Begin Again “Coming Up Roses," Begin Again; "Mercy Is," Noah; "Glory", Selma; "Miracles", Unbroken; “What is Love?,” Rio 2*

Best Documentary Feature:

Citizenfour

Finding Vivian Maier

Life Itself

The Overnighters
Tales of the Grim Sleeper*

Almost put: Keep on Keepin’ On*
Shortlist*

Best Foreign Language Film:

Force Majeure – Sweden

Ida - Poland
Leviathan - Russia

Mommy – Canada

Wild Tails – Argentina

Almost put: Two Days, One Night - Belgium
Also reviewed: Living is Easy with Eyes Closed (Spain), Rocks in My Pockets (Latvia), The Way He Looks (Brazil), What Now? Remind Me (Portugal)

List of submitted films on Wikipedia.

*Please see The Film Experience for the best and most comprehensive coverage on this category.

Best Animated Film:

Big Hero 6

Book of Life

How to Train Your Dragon 2

The Lego Movie

Tale of Princess Kaguya

What about: The Boxtrolls, Rocks in My Pockets
List of eligible films. 

Best Animated Short:

The Bigger Picture*
Coda*
Feast
Footprints*
Me and My Moulton*

Also shortlisted:  Duet*, The Numberlys*, A Single Life*, Symphony No. 42 (seen it, no review)*.

Best Live Action Short:

Shortlist*

Short Documentary Short:

Shortlist:

Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
Joanna
Kehinde Wiley: An Economy of Grace
The Lion’s Mouth Opens
One Child
Our Curse
The Reaper (La Parka)
White Earth

What are your predictions?