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Ellar Coltrane (Mason), and Ethan Hawke (Mason Sr.) in Boyhood. Photo Credit: Matt Lankes. Courtesy of IFC Films / Mongrel Media. |
What makes this year’s Best Actress race, which has a slim
field of very strong contenders, is how bizarre the campaign trails at the
Weinstein Company seem set on sinking The
Immigrant despite obvious support. TWC and many writers/pundits assumed
that Amy Adams’ performance in Tim Burton’s Big
Eyes to be the distributor’s most viable Best Actress contender, but a
disappointing reception for the film itself leaves Adams with modest awards
prospects even though her performance itself is being well received. Big Eyes is a comedy, though, so the
Globes will either give Adams a much needed boost or kill her chances
altogether.
The drama category of the Globes, however, could add another
TWC hopeful to the quartet of actresses—Julianne Moore (Still Alice), Reese Witherspoon (Wild), Rosamund Pike (Gone
Girl) and Felicity Jones (The Theory
of Everything)—who are leading the Best Actress race. Don’t expect Marion
Cotillard to be here for The Immigrant,
though, since TWC campaigners are opting not to listen to the voices rallying
behind her performance and are instead trying to revive support for a film that the distributor also sunk this year. That performance, of course, is Jessica
Chastain’s remarkable turn in the Him/Her
two-parter The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby. (They’re campaigning for Her,
specifically.) It’s a great performance for sure, but Rigby has struggled even more than The Immigrant has to reach audiences and the hybrid format of the
film makes awards recognition very tricky. Even Canadian distributor eOne
sandbagged Eleanor and pulled it from
their release schedule altogether in the week it was set for release. All this
scrambling could leave the Weinsteins without a Best Actress nominee altogether—and,
if anyone’s counting, they actually have three legit contenders they’ve dumped
this season if one includes Mia Wasikowska’s performance in Track, which would make my top five if I
had a ballot. The secure four actresses and shaky fifth slot probably mean that
Hilary Swank is in for The Homesman since she's been an underlying consistency this season,
although Cotillard’s turn in Two Days,
One Night might benefit most of all. The same goes for the SAG awards,
which also announce their nominations this week, although the efforts for
Cotillard and Chastain are probably coming a bit too late to make an impact in
such a large voting body. The overlap between the Screen Actors Guild and the
Academy is significant, though, so the SAG nominations bode especially well for
the Best Actress nominees and whichever films land the ensemble awards. Will Gone Girl become the major threat it
deserves to be this week?
Outside of the Best Actress race, the Best Picture showdown
almost inevitably looks to crown both Boyhood
and Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) in the Drama and
Comedy/Musical categories, respectively, and keep them sitting even leading up
to the finish line. Arthouse hit Boyhood
isn’t really typical Globes fodder—they’re far more likely to nominate Unbroken since it meets the well-crafted
vanilla-flavoured studio stuff they favour like Rush, Frost/Nixon, and Charlie Wilson’s War—while The Imitation Game has enough arthouse
credibility, mainstream appeal, and star power to go all the way with the
Hollywood Foreign Press.
The big wild card on the dramatic front is Selma. Selma has strong support, but few “Best of the year” remarks so
far, so it really needs to show up here, and it’s hard to say if it will since
the HFPA have shown support for the Oprah-produced The Great Debaters but then snubbed Oprah’s The Butler last year. The Globes, however, have a reputation to
being critics’ group most prone to influence by junkets, screenings, and favours,
and Selma director Ava DuVernay built
a solid reputation as a publicist (working on campaigns for films like The Help) before moving to filmmaking
full time, so the combination of strategy from a filmmaker’s perspective could
add to the foundational support for Selma
and make it a serious player. Any of the dramatic contenders could conceivably
win here, so the nominations will be very exciting.
Best Comedy/Musical, however, is a different story. This
year isn’t an especially strong one for comedy. Birdman is a shoo-in for both a nomination and the win. Add Into the Woods, since the Globes love
their musicals and the comedy field is sparse, while The Grand Budapest Hotel is a dark horse. Otherwise, look to The Hollywood Reporter’s breakdown
of what is competing as comedy and what is competing as a drama for more clues.
This year’s distinctions seem less dubious than those of previous years do—My Week with Marilyn, anyone?—since Birdman is very much a satire. Expect at
least one mild surprise here, maybe Chef,
Get on Up, or even Obvious Child. This year’s Oscar race is
dead serious, so any funny film, especially Woods
and Budapest, could benefit from a
boost at the Globes.
Without further ado, here are predictions for this year’s
Golden Globe and SAG nominations.
Oscar predix are also update below. Please feel free to add
your own guesses in the comments!
Golden Globes:
(Nominations announced Dec. 11)Best Film - Drama
BoyhoodGone Girl
The Imitation Game
Selma
Unbroken
Alt: The Theory of Everything
Best Film - Comedy/Musical
BirdmanChef
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Inherent Vice
Into the Woods
Alt: Get on Up
What about: Top Five
Best Director:
Ava DuVernay, Selma
David Fincher, Gone Girl
David Fincher, Gone Girl
Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
Alt: Angelina Jolie, Unbroken
What about: Rob Marshall, Into the Woods
Alt: Angelina Jolie, Unbroken
What about: Rob Marshall, Into the Woods
Best Actress - Drama
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Alt: Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
What about: Anne Dorval, Mommy
Best Actor - Drama
Ben Affleck, Gone Girl
Steve Carrell, Foxcatcher
Steve Carrell, Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
David Oyelowo, Selma
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Alt: Timothy Spall, Mr. Turner
Best Actress - Musical/Comedy
Amy Adams, Big EyesEmily Blunt, Into the Woods
Shirley MacLaine, Elsa & Fred
Jenny Slate, Obvious Child
Kristen Wiig, The Skeleton Twins
Alt: Keira Knightley, Begin Again
What about: Julianne Moore, Maps to the Stars
Best Actor - Comedy/Musical
Chadwick Boseman, Get on Up
Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Bill Murray, St. Vincent
Joaquin Phoenix, Inherent ViceRalph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Bill Murray, St. Vincent
Alt: James Corden, Into the Woods
Best Supporting Actress:
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Meryl Streep, Into the
Woods
Emma Stone, Birdman
Emma Stone, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Alt: Josh Brolin, Inherent Vice
Best Screenplay:
Birdman – Alejandro
G. Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Armando Bo
Boyhood – Richard
Linklater
The Imitation Game – Graham Moore
Alt: Selma
Alt: Selma
Best Foreign Language Film:
Force Majeure – Sweden
Ida - Poland
Leviathan - Russia
Two Days, One Night - Belgium
Leviathan - Russia
Two Days, One Night - Belgium
Wild Tails – Argentina
What about: Mommy – Canada (we rarely show up at the Globes)
What about: Mommy – Canada (we rarely show up at the Globes)
Best Animated Film:
Big Hero 6
Book of Life
The Boxtrolls
The Boxtrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2
Best Score:
The Imitation Game – Alexandre Desplat
Interstellar –
Hans Zimmer
Noah - Clint Mansell
Noah - Clint Mansell
Best Song:
"The Hanging Tree," The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1
“Everything is Awesome,” The Lego Movie
"Mercy Is," Noah
"Miracles," Unbroken
*I feel like an idiot for excluding The Grand Budapest Hotel. I think Boyhood could potentially be out, since the individual performances by Arquette and Hawke outweigh the overall strength of the actors (some of whom were simply too young at various stages of shooting to do anything other than be their natural selves), but I think the twelve-year commitment counts for something and makes it simply too difficult to overlook what the actors created with their director.
"Mercy Is," Noah
"Miracles," Unbroken
SAG nominations:
(Announced Dec. 10)Best Ensemble:
The Imitation Game
Into the Woods
Into the Woods
*I feel like an idiot for excluding The Grand Budapest Hotel. I think Boyhood could potentially be out, since the individual performances by Arquette and Hawke outweigh the overall strength of the actors (some of whom were simply too young at various stages of shooting to do anything other than be their natural selves), but I think the twelve-year commitment counts for something and makes it simply too difficult to overlook what the actors created with their director.
Best Actor:
Steve Carrell, Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton, Birdman
David Oyelowo, Selma
David Oyelowo, Selma
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Best Actress:
Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One NightFelicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Updated Oscar Predictions:
*New or moved
Best Picture:
Foxcatcher
Almost put: Into the Woods*
Best Director
Ava DuVernay, Selma*
David Fincher, Gone Girl
David Fincher, Gone Girl
Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
Almost put: Angelina Jolie, Unbroken*
What about: Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel; Mike Leigh, Mr. Turner; James Marsh, The Theory of
Everything; Rob Marshall, Into the Woods; Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher*; Jean-Marc Vallée, Wild.
Best Actor
Steve Carrell, Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton, Birdman
David Oyelowo, Selma*
David Oyelowo, Selma*
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Almost put: Ben Affleck, Gone Girl*
What about: Ellar Coltrane, Boyhood; Ralph Fiennes The Grand Budapest Hotel; Philip Seymour Hoffman, A Most Wanted Man; Oscar Isaac, A Most Violent Year; Jack O’Connell, Unbroken; Joaquin Phoenix, Inherent Vice; Timothy Spall, Mr. Turner; Channing Tatum, Foxcatcher.
Best Actress
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Almost put: Emily Blunt, Into the Woods
What about: Amy Adams, Big Eyes; Marion Cotillard, The Immigrant; Marion
Cotillard, Two Days, One Night; Anne Dorval, Mommy*.
Best Supporting Actor:
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Channing Tatum, Foxcatcher
Channing Tatum, Foxcatcher
Almost Put:
What about: Josh Brolin, Inherent
Vice; Benicio Del Toro, Inherent
Vice; Robert Duvall, The Judge
Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Meryl Streep, Into the
Woods
Almost put: Kristen Stewart, Still Alice
What about: Carrie Coon, Gone Girl; Anna Kendrick, Into the
Woods, Emma Stone, Birdman, Tilda
Swinton, Snowpiercer, Naomi Watts, Birdman/St. Vincent.
Best Original Screenplay
Birdman – Alejandro
G. Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Armando Bo
Boyhood – Richard
Linklater
Foxcatcher – E.
Max Frye, Dan Futterman
The Grand Budapest Hotel– Wes Anderson
Mr. Turner – Mike
Leigh
Almost put: Whiplash – Damien Chazelle
What about: Chef - Jon Favreau; A Most
Violent Year, J.C. Chandor
Best Adapted Screenplay
Gone Girl -
Gillian Flynn
The Imitation Game – Graham Moore
Selma - Paul Webb*
The Theory of Everything – Anthony McCarten
The Theory of Everything – Anthony McCarten
Wild – Nick Hornby
Almost put: Inherent Vice –
Paul Thomas Anderson
What about: Into the
Woods – James Lapine; A Most Wanted Man - Andrew Bovell; Still Alice -
Richard Glatzer, Wash Westmoreland*; Unbroken –
Joel Coen, Ethan Coen, Richard Lagravenese, William Nicholson
Best Film Editing:
Almost put: Unbroken
What about: Foxcatcher, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game , Into the Woods, Selma*, Whiplash
Best Cinematography:
Interstellar
Mr. Turner
Mr. Turner
Almost put: Wild
What about: The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Homesman*, The Imitation Game, Into the Woods, Selma, Snowpiercer, The Theory of Everything
Best Costumes:
The Imitation Game
Into the Woods
Into the Woods
Mr. Turner
What about: Belle,
Big Eyes, Exodus, The Homesman*, Inherent Vice, Magic in the Moonlight, Selma
Best Production Design:
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Into the Woods
Mr.
Turner
Almost put: Snowpiercer
Best Score:
The Grand Budapest Hotel– Alexandre Desplat
The Imitation Game – Alexandre Desplat
Interstellar –
Hans Zimmer and the church organ
What about: The Homesman *, The Judge, The Lego Movie, Noah, The Theory of Everything, Unbroken, Under the Skin
Sound Mixing:
Into the Woods
Sound Editing:
Fury
Transformers 4
Unbroken*
Unbroken*
What about: Edge of Tomorrow*, The Lego
Movie, Snowpiercer
Visual Effects:
Dawn of
the Planet of the Apes*
Guardians of the
Galaxy
Best Make-up
Into the Woods
What about: Birdman, Foxcatcher, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Hobbit 3, Mr. Turner, Snowpiercer, The Theory of Everything,
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Best Song:
What about: “Tell Me If You Wanna Go Home,”Begin Again; “Like a Fool,” Begin Again “Coming Up Roses," Begin Again; "Mercy Is," Noah; "Glory", Selma; "Miracles", Unbroken; “What is Love?,” Rio 2*
Best Documentary Feature:
The Overnighters
Tales of the Grim Sleeper*
Tales of the Grim Sleeper*
Best Foreign Language Film:
Force Majeure – Sweden
Ida - Poland
Leviathan - Russia
Leviathan - Russia
Mommy – Canada
Wild Tails – Argentina
Almost put: Two Days, One Night
- Belgium
Also reviewed: Living is Easy with Eyes Closed (Spain), Rocks in My Pockets (Latvia), The Way He Looks (Brazil), What Now? Remind Me (Portugal)
Also reviewed: Living is Easy with Eyes Closed (Spain), Rocks in My Pockets (Latvia), The Way He Looks (Brazil), What Now? Remind Me (Portugal)
List of submitted films on Wikipedia.
*Please see The Film Experience for the best and most comprehensive coverage on
this category.
Best Animated Film:
Big Hero 6
Book of Life
How to Train Your Dragon 2
Tale of Princess Kaguya
Best Animated Short:
Also shortlisted: Duet*, The Numberlys*, A Single Life*, Symphony No. 42 (seen it, no review)*.
Best Live Action Short:
Short Documentary Short:
Shortlist:
Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
Joanna
Kehinde Wiley: An Economy of Grace
The Lion’s Mouth Opens
One Child
Our Curse
The Reaper (La Parka)
White Earth
Joanna
Kehinde Wiley: An Economy of Grace
The Lion’s Mouth Opens
One Child
Our Curse
The Reaper (La Parka)
White Earth