1/09/2015

Canadian Screen Awards 2015: Preview and Predictions

Antoine-Olivier Pilon in Mommy, the Canadian Screen Awards frontrunner.
I honestly haven’t a clue for how this year’s list of nominations could pan out for the 2015 Canadian Screen Awards when they're annouced on Jan. 13. Expect Mommy to dominate, as it should, and Tu Dors Nicole and Maps to the Stars will probably come on strong, but everything after that is mostly a question mark. That’s just fine with me, though, since Mommy, Maps, and Nicole are easily the strongest Canadian films of the year. It’s been an interesting two weeks for Canuck cinema with both the Vancouver film critics and the Toronto film critics chiming in, neither of which picked frontrunner Mommy as their choice for Best Canadian Film. They chose Tu Dors Nicole and Enemy, respectively, but their picks are influenced by many films from last year's CSA crop. Mommy still stands as the frontunner given its Cannes win, critical support, box office clout, and Canuck Oscar status. Every Canadian Oscar submission  has triumphed at the Genies/Canadian Screen Awards since Incendies started the run in 2010. Dolan's 2009 debut I Killed My Mother breaks the pattern, but expect Mommy to follow suit and steamroll the competition à la Incendies, Monsieur Lazhar, or Rebelle.

Maps to the Stars

Canadian film was mostly in the spotlight this week after trades cited figures of the Canadian film industry including David Cronenberg, TIFF’s Jesse Wente, and film critic Richard Crouse slamming online film critics in a recent article by the Canadian Press. (Can we please stop these articles about how covering film should and shouldn't be?) Cronenberg’s mostly dismissive comments saw the most virality, although I’ll still root for Maps to the Stars to earn some love from the CSAs even if he thinks I’m just wasting my time. Maps is Cronenberg’s best Canadian film since Crash and it simply deserves to be acknowledged, especially for Bruce Wagner’s excellent screenplay and Julianne Moore’s gutsy performance (and with nominations for Sarah Gadon and Mia Wasikowska while we're at it!).
Anne Dorval and Xavier Dolan on the set of Mommy. Photo: Shane Laverdière.
I think that the boomming success of  the personal and regionally-inflected Mommy, though, shows that things might be changing in the Canadian film scene. Mommy director Xavier Dolan could potentially even join Mommy among the highest tallying nominees, for he’s a shoo-in for at least five nominations for Mommy—screenplay, directing, editing, costumes, and Best Film (as producer)—and he’s a viable contender for acting nominations (even wins) for both Elephant Song and Miraculum. Both performances sit in the gray area between lead and supporting roles, but he’s likeliest to compete as a lead for Elephant Song given the showiness of the role and as a supporting player for Miraculum given his comparatively modest screen time.
 
One thing that is certain, though, is that this year’s announcement should show more of the Academy’s efforts to improve the awards as they enter their third year as a combined endeavour for film, television, and digital media. (I’m covering only film.) This year’s film side includes two new categories to recognize the craftwork in documentaries (editing and cinematography). Moreover, and this is a greater improvement for the awards, while the CSAs still allow for a mix of submissions from films released theatrically in 2014 and from those that screened at two or more qualifying festivals, films accepted on festival screenings must confirm their intended theatrical release before March 1st, 2015. This change essentially allows festivals to act as qualifying runs might for some independent films in the Oscar race (ex: Still Alice) before being released in time to capitalize on the awards. I think this amendment to the rules is more appreciated and necessary because it ensures fairness for the other films that submit and, even better, allows Canadians to see the films with the help of awards hype. That’s the whole point of an award show, eh?

Tu Dors Nicole

Contenders from 2014 Theatrical Releases


Among the competitors from this year’s theatrical slate are the aforementioned Mommy and Maps to the Stars, which gives the Canadian Screen Awards a formidable Best Actress race between Mommy’s Anne Dorval and Cannes winner and Golden Globe nominee Julianne Moore. Next in the mix is their fellow Cannes-con hit Tu Dors Nicole, which is probably a dark horse and could have done well in any other year. However, Nicole got somewhat lost in Canadian theatres, barely opening outside Quebec and TIFF Bell Lightbox, and it’s a notable example for how some great Canadian films could benefit with the kind of exposure offered by events such as the Oscars. Mommy presumably is the front-runner across the board and looks likely to continue the five-year streak of Canada’s Oscar submissions landing the top prize.

Once one moves beyond the Cannes hits, however, nothing else really seems viable. Canada’s top grosser Pompeii probably has the best chance of rivalling Mommy and Maps for the most overall nominations among the film nominees, for this Canadian-German co-pro features some spectacular production values even if it struggles to offer much substance. On the other hand, the aforementioned Miraculum could garner a healthy crop of acting nominations, but don’t expect it to score well elsewhere (maybe the editing) since the politely-mixed reception for the film most says that the film is only as strong as its performances are, although Podz’s films generally do well with the Academy.

More likely to show up among the nominees boasting theatrical releases is the Quebec box-office hit 1987, which has generally favourable reviews for its coming-of-age story. I caught the film last night and was pleasantly surprised by it (I'll have a review soon) and think it could bring director Ricardo Trogi and producer Nicole Robert back to the show after nominations for films like Quebec-Montreal, L’affair Dumont, and 1987's predecessor 1981. I think the amendment to the rules will help films like 1987 that played outside the festival circuit, so we’ll see one or two more non-festival films than usual in the Best Film line-up.
1987
Toronto distributor Mongrel Media, meanwhile, might have a rare year without a Best Film nomination. Mongrel won a majority's share of the awards only three years ago with Still Mine, Midnight’s Children, and Rebelle (plus Stories We Tell in the doc category), but it barely has much to offer on the Canadian front this year aside from Fall, which had a quiet release in Toronto in December after premiering at the Vancouver International Film Festival, and well-ish-received Heartbeat. Fall’s chances mostly lie in Michael Murphy’s strong performance unless Cronenberg fatigue sets in and gives the film an edge since it’s one of the few Anglophone films in contention. Mongrel also has a viable contender in Preggoland, which has been getting raves for its screenplay and for the lead performance by Sonja Bennett, but they’re advertising a Spring release.

A few other flicks had small Toronto releases and are hovering on the fringe for a nomination here and there, but unless they’re repped by a distributor with enough money to gamble up to $4000 on a submission fee with mixed chances of recouping said costs, they’re unlikely to compete as Vic + Flo reportedly declined to do last year. On the other hand, comparatively commercial films with bigger backers like eOne tend to do better at the CSAs, so one can expect films like Afflicted and Stage Fright to score some technical gongs.
The Captive
Many of this year’s other Canadian theatrical releases—Dr. Cabbie, Hector and the Search for Happiness, and The Captive—had varying degrees of commercial success, but comparatively lesser critical acclaim. But you just know that The Captive’s showing up somewhere amongst the nominees since it has a fan here and there, and every Egoyan film finds its way to the show. Ryan Reynolds is probably the film’s best shot and, like Murphy in Fall, stands to gain by having competition that’s largely Quebecois.

One of Canada’s other auteurs, Denys Arcand, had just as much of a misfire as Egoyan allegedly did, since An Eye for Beauty disappointed both artistically and commercially by garnering a ho-hum response at the Quebec box-office and a similarly muted response at TIFF before appearing on VOD. (It probably benefited from screening directly before The Cobbler.) It could surprise since Arcand, like Egoyan, is an Academy staple, but its bland leads face stiffer competition and the Best Original Screenplay category is very competitive, so Beauty might not garner any love outside an unlikely nomination for cinematography or for the supporting players.
Corner Gas: The Movie
Corner Gas: The Movie could therefore be a default nominee since the competition is relatively sparse. The consensus largely states that it’s strictly for fans only, but three of the show’s five seasons won the top prize at the Geminis and Academy voters might actually be the ones to cheers it with Tim Horton’s. (The film also received one of 2014’s few swanky Movie Nights on the Hill for government and industry types.) Lesser commercially-oriented Canuck fare has appeared amongst the nominees and even The Trailer Park Boys Movie earned a Best Picture nomination, and Corner Gas could show that the voters are just as receptive of broad comedy as they are to festival fare.


Félix and Meira

Festival Films


Most cases of the Genies and Canadian Screen awards usually contain only one film among the Best Picture nominees that didn’t screen at TIFF in September. (See: Maïna in 2013, L’affair Dumont in 2012, 2011 had zero non-TIFF films vying for the top prize, and 2010 had two: 10 ½ and Splice. 2009’s Polytechnique marks the most recent film to win without a TIFF premiere.) This observation certainly bodes for Maps, Nicole, and Mommy since the rest of the field is relatively low-key or more commercial than artistic in nature.

Two festival flicks can expect to have their names called out when the nominations are announced on January 13th. Those films are Félix and Meira and Elephant Song. The former film is the surprise winner of the Best Canadian Feature Film prize at TIFF this year, a Canada’s Top Ten pick, and the champ of the Whistler Film Festival with a whopping four prizes (Best Film, Director, Screenplay, and Actress) to its name. The latter film marks one of the more hotly buzzed Canadian films at Toronto, although with varying degrees of enthusiasm. Both films have confirmed releases to meet the Academy regulations for festival films, for Félix and Meira screens in February and Elephant Song opens February 20th. (Both films screen in Ottawa at The ByTowne in February). Expect at least one, if not both, of those films among the Best Picture nominees.

The best actress race could easily have another strong contender in Patricia Clarkson in Rubba Nada’s October Gale. The film disappointed at TIFF, earning mostly negative reviews for Nada’s effort at genre, but Clarkson’s excellent performance nearly redeems the film in some eyes (including mine) and October Gale could legitimately benefit from Clarkson’s presence at the awards (even if it’s in name only) before it heads to theatres. Boutique distributor Pacific Northwest Pictures made a successful bid last year landing Tatiana Maslany a nomination for Cas & Dylan before releasing the film theatrically, and it wouldn’t be surprising if they do the same. Add Scott Speedman to the mix for Best Supporting Actor, then, too.
Elephant Song
Several of the year’s other hotly buzzed festival films—In Her Place, Corbo, Preggoland, Big Muddy, and Bang Bang Baby—all have distribution and the proper festival requirements, so keep them on the radar. In Her Place and Corbo are most likely to advance given their larger profiles and Canada’s Top Ten kudos, although Corbo’s release date recently changed from March to April, so don’t be surprised if they waited for next year. (But given the response to the film at Toronto, I’d assume they submitted.) The film’s bound to touch a nerve, especially as too few films dramatize the history of the FLQ, and I’m rooting for Corbo to be among the nominees spotlighting new talent. On the other hand, few of these films (or any of the unreleased festival films) have the same high profile and distributorial influence as last year’s nominees Enemy, The Grand Seduction, The F Word or Tom at the Farm. If any ‘festival film’ makes the cut in a big way, it’s probably going to be Elephant Song given the comparatively larger profile, star status, and investment of the film… even if it’s arguably weaker than many of the films in the competition.

On the other hand, popular festival title and Canada’s Top Ten entry Violent doesn’t have a distributor to foot the bill for a qualifying theatrical run before March, so it could be the acclaimed Canuck flick absent from the festivities. But anyone can book a week at the week at the Carlton if they’re determined enough!

Monsoon

The Docs


The Screenies are giving documentaries more love this year and so will I. No film could better justify the addition of a cinematography award for docs than Sturla Gunnarsson’s Monsoon. The film has the depth to match the scope of its inspiring visuals and it’s arguably a frontrunner among the docs. Ditto Julia Kwan’s beautifully shot and resonant Everything Will Be. Harold Crooks’s The Price We Pay, like Monsoon and Everything Will Be, respectively, has fans in both Canada’s Top Ten and the Vancouver Film Critics. Alanis Obomsawin, on the other hand, looks to make back-to-back nominations with Trick or Treaty? after last year’s nominee Hi-ho Mistahey!. Obomsawin has yet to win from the Canadian Academy despite four nominations, including one for her landmark doc Kanehsatake: 270 Years of Resistance, and she’s arguably one of the most overdue talents in the field. Other successful Canuck docs from festivals and theatrical runs include Just Eat It, Hot Doc champs The Backward Class, Out of Mind, Out of Sight, the powerful The Secret Trial 5, the fun Kung Fu Elliot, the controversial docs The Sheik and Citizen Mark, the strikingly-shot docs Guidelines and Joy of Man’s Desiring, and, finally, my favourite among the docs, The Wanted 18, which could give the NFB a monopoly on the doc categories alongside Everything Will Be and Trick or Treaty?.

Without further ado, here are some predictions for this year’s Canadian Screen Awards.

(Disclaimer: Please take these predictions with a grain of salt. They're more for entertainment's sake and for stimulating discussion than for scoring points by hitting a bull's eye.)

Canadian Screen Awards Predictions:


Best Film:
1987
Corbo
Corner Gas: The Movie
Elephant Song
Félix and Meira
Maps to the Stars
Mommy
Tu Dors Nicole

If up to 10 nominees: In Her Place, Preggoland
What about: Violent, Big Muddy, The Valley Below, The Husband, Bang Bang Baby, Pompeii
Don’t count out: The Captive

Best Director:
David Cronenberg, Maps to the Stars
Mathieu Denis, Corbo
Xavier Dolan, Mommy
Maxime Giroux, Felix and Meira
Stephane Lafleur, Tu Dors Nicole

What about: Albert Shin, In Her Place; Charles Binamé, Elephant Song; Andrew Huculiak, Violent; Ricardo Trogi, 1987.

Best Actor in a Lead Role:
Jean-Carl Boucher, 1987
Antoine-Olivier Pilon, Mommy
Bruce Greenwood, Elephant Song
Michael Murphy, Fall
Ryan Reynolds, The Captive

If deemed a lead: Xavier Dolan, Elephant Song
What about: Anthony Thierren, Corbo; Martin Dubreuil, Félix and Meira; Brent Butt, Corner Gas: The Movie (or No Clue)

Best Actress in a Leading Role:
Sonja Bennett, Preggoland
Marilyn Castonguay, Miraculum
Anne Dorval, Mommy
Julianne Moore, Maps to the Stars
Hadas Yaron, Felix and Meira

What about: Patricia Clarkson, October Gale; Suzanne Clément, Sitting on the Edge of Marlene; Julianne Côté, Tu Dors Nicole; Yoon-Da Kyung, In Her Place; Nadia Litz, Big Muddy; Gabrielle Miller, Corner Gas (don’t be surprised if she cracks the nominees); Mia Wasikowska, Maps to the Stars.

Best Supporting Actor:
Evan Bird, Maps to the Stars 
Claudio Colangelo, 1987
Xavier Dolan, Elephant Song (or Miraculum)
Fred Ewaniuk, Corner Gas: The Movie
Marc-André Grondin, Tu Dors Nicole

What about: Stephen McHattie, Big Muddy or Meetings with a Young Poet; Christopher Plummer, Hector and the Search for Happiness; Patrick Huard, Mommy; James Caan, Preggoland; Danny Trejo, Preggoland, Scott Speedman, October Gale, Antoine L’Ecuyer, Corbo

Best Supporting Actress :
Sandrine Bisson, 1987
Suzanne Clément, Mommy
Marie-Josée Croze, An Eye for Beauty
Anne Dorval, Miraculum
Catherine Keener, Elephant Song

What about: Sarah Gadon, Maps to the Stars; Carrie-Anne Moss, Elephant Song; Janet Wright, Corner Gas: The Movie; Katie Boland, Fall; Ahn Ji Hye, In Her Place, Mia Wasikowska, Maps to the Stars.

Best Original Screenplay:
Félix and Meira
In Her Place
Maps to the Stars
Mommy
Tu Dors Nicole

What about: Corbo, Preggoland, The Captive, 1987, An Eye for Beauty, Fall, Wet Bum.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Big Muddy
Corner Gas: The Movie
Elephant Song
Hector and the Search for Happiness
Sitting on the Edge of Marlene

What about: Hard Drive

(This category is pretty bare, so it’s possible that both screenplay categories will be collapsed into one.)

Best Cinematography:
Corbo
An Eye for Beauty
Mommy
Pompeii
Tu Dors Nicole

What about: Afflicted, Stage Fright, Maps to the Stars, The Captive, Félix and Meira, Violent, Fall, Big Muddy, Bang Bang Baby, Wet Bum.

Best Film Editing:
Corbo
Maps to the Stars
Mommy
Pompeii
Tu Dors Nicole

What about: Afflicted, Stage Fright, In Her Place, Hector and the Search for Happiness, Miraculum, 1987, Bang Bang Baby.

Best Score:
Heartbeat
Maps to the Stars
Mommy
Tu Dors Nicole
Violent

What about: No Clue, Stage Fright, The Captive, Bang Bang Baby, Wet Bum

Best Song:
Bang Bang Baby
Heartbeat
Songs She Wrote About People She Knows
Stage Fright
Stage Fright

Best Art Direction:
1987
Bang Bang Baby
Corbo
Pompeii
Stage Fright

Best Costumes:
1987
Corbo
Elephant Song
Mommy
Pompeii

What about: Stage Fright, Maps to the Stars, Dr. Cabbie, Bang Bang Baby

Best Visual Effects:
Afflicted
Corner Gas: The Movie
Maps to the Stars
Pompeii
WolfCop

Best Make-up:
Afflicted
Maps to the Stars
Pompeii
Stage Fright
WolfCop

What about: 1987, Mommy, Big Muddy, Corner Gas

Best Sound:
The Captive
Maps to the Stars
Mommy
Pompeii
Stage Fright

Best Sound Editing:
Afflicted
Maps to the Stars
Pompeii
Stage Fright
Wolfcop

Best Documentary Feature:
The Backward Class
Everything Will Be
Monsoon
The Price We Pay
Trick or Treaty?

What about: Just Eat it; Sol; Out of Mind, Out of Sight, The Wanted 18

Best Cinematography in a Feature-Length Documentary:
Everything Will Be
Guidelines
Joy of Man’s Desiring
Monsoon
Where I’m From

Best Editing in a Feature Length Documentary:
Monsoon
The Price We Pay
Trick or Treaty
The Wanted 18

Best Short Documentary:

Best Animated Short:

Best Live Action Short:


What other Canuck films do you think could or should be in the conversation?