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| Ralph Fiennes in The Grand Budapest Hotel. Photo: Fox Searchlight |
I think the strong show of support for The Grand Budapest Hotel shows that despite all the courting, screeners, and noise, people simply vote for the films they love. Throughout the year, at parties and gatherings with film friends and with peers who have little interest in film, The Grand Budapest Hotel consistently brings a sparkle and a quick ‘YES!’ of agreement whenever I mention it. These people aren't Oscar voters, mind you, but, like one takes a sample for a survey or poll, the pockets of love for The Grand Budapest Hotel demonstrate that it’s a special little indie connecting with people who don’t generally go for smaller, artier, quirkier fare. It also helps that it came out early and performed well through strong word of mouth, sustaining its hype for almost a year by the time the Academy Awards are handed out in February. Most importantly, though, there simply isn’t anything like The Grand Budapest Hotel—nothing lighter, nothing funnier—to eat into the votes. Spillage, on the other hand, seems to be a problem for many of the films coming into the race at the last minute or on the heels of the festival circuit.
Selma and American Sniper both happened late in
the game, and they’ve been two of the most surprising films in the
post-Christmas rush. Selma surprises with
its absence and American Sniper
surprises with its presence. I think Ava DuVernay jumped the gun and pushed Selma into the fray before it was
entirely ready: Selma and Sniper premiered back-to-back at the AFI
with the former screening as an incomplete preview and the latter as a finished
premiere. Both films had favourable receptions, but the buzz for Selma was so deafening that everyone
wanted to see it, but then nobody could because it wasn’t ready in time for advance
screeners (although they did theatrical screenings for voters) and it missed a
lot of the critics’ awards and industry recognition. Reports say that the Selma camp focused on the Academy
itself, so I think it will be more present at the Oscars, but not as strongly
as it should be. Everyone's approaching Selma as an 'Oscar movie' (or point of controversy) while Sniper's largely being enjoyed (or reviled) as a film in its own right. (I haven't seen Sniper yet. It doesn't screen here until tonight.)
Sniper on the
other hand, is a giant question mark since Clint Eastwood’s films have been surprisingly
cool with the Oscars lately. No love for Gran
Torino, J. Edgar, or Hereafter, says that Mr. Eastwood might
have earned enough Oscars; moreover, both Invictus
and Changeling received fewer
nominations than they could have and should have—the former of which is
significant if one remembers that Invictus
lost out on a Best Picture nomination to fellow sports pic The Blind Side! Clint scored a DGA nomination for Sniper, so that almost inevitable
foretells a Best Picture nomination, but I honestly can’t see him scoring a
Best Director nomination once again when his film has been little more than an
underlying presence in the race and probably shares a pocket of fans with
Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken. Like Selma, though, I think Eastwood’s film
will find its way into the Best Picture race, but I think it’ll only garner
some technical nominations on the side. A Best Actor nomination for Bradley
Cooper seems totally random given the strong competition and a Best Adapted
Screenplay nomination seems even less likely now that Whiplash is competing in the adapted field.
If Selma and American Sniper are coming on strong, though, what films are they bumping out? Any vote gained for them is a vote lost for another film. Does Selma overlap with fans of riskier, auteur driven cinema like Gone Girl or are the fans of Boyhood firm in their preference for Linklater? (DuVernay's certainly garnering well-deserved notice as a distinct voice behind the camera.) Sniper doesn't seem to conflict with anything besides Unbroken, unless it could be a mainstream option for fans of films like Whiplash, Nightcrawler, and Foxcatcher, which have been doing well getting crossover appeal from arthouse fans and mainstream moviegoers alike.
If Selma and American Sniper are coming on strong, though, what films are they bumping out? Any vote gained for them is a vote lost for another film. Does Selma overlap with fans of riskier, auteur driven cinema like Gone Girl or are the fans of Boyhood firm in their preference for Linklater? (DuVernay's certainly garnering well-deserved notice as a distinct voice behind the camera.) Sniper doesn't seem to conflict with anything besides Unbroken, unless it could be a mainstream option for fans of films like Whiplash, Nightcrawler, and Foxcatcher, which have been doing well getting crossover appeal from arthouse fans and mainstream moviegoers alike.
It’s a tough year to predict and I’ve never felt less
confident in my picks, but whatever. Unpredictability is a lot more fun than an
echo chamber.
Final Oscar Predictions:
*New or moved
Best Picture:
American Sniper*
Birdman
Birdman
Almost put: Foxcatcher*
I'm rooting for: Wild, A Most Violent Year
I'm rooting for: Wild, A Most Violent Year
Best Director
Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Birdman
Almost put: David Fincher, Gone Girl*
I'm rooting for: Jean-Marc Vallée, Wild
I'm rooting for: Jean-Marc Vallée, Wild
Best Actor
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Best Actress
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Almost put: Amy Adams, Big Eyes*
I'm rooting for: Anne Dorval, Mommy, Reese Witherspoon, and Julianne Moore
I'm rooting for: Anne Dorval, Mommy, Reese Witherspoon, and Julianne Moore
Best Supporting Actor:
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Almost put: Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year*
I'm rooting for: Laura Dern (and Meryl, Jessica Chastain, and Patricia Arquette)
Best Original Screenplay
Birdman – Alejandro
G. Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Armando Bo
The Grand Budapest Hotel– Wes Anderson
Mr. Turner – Mike
Leigh
Almost put: Nightcrawler - Dan Gilroy
I'm rooting for: J.C. Chandor, A Most Violent Year
I'm rooting for: J.C. Chandor, A Most Violent Year
Best Adapted Screenplay
Gone Girl -
Gillian Flynn
The Imitation Game – Graham Moore
The Theory of Everything – Anthony McCarten
Almost put: Inherent Vice –
Paul Thomas Anderson
I'm rooting for: Wild, Gone Girl, Still Alice
I'm rooting for: Wild, Gone Girl, Still Alice
Best Film Editing:
American Sniper*
Boyhood
Boyhood
Almost put: Gone Girl*
I'm rooting for: Wild, Birdman and Gone Girl (On what planet do Wild and Gone Girl miss out?)
Best Cinematography:
Almost put: Gone Girl*
I'm rooting for: Wild, The Immigrant
Best Costumes:
Mr. Turner
Almost put: Selma
Best Production Design:
Mr.
Turner
Almost put: Inherent Vice*
Best Score:
Gone Girl– Trent
Reznor, Atticus Ross
The Grand Budapest Hotel– Alexandre Desplat
The Imitation Game – Alexandre Desplat
Almost put: Noah
I'm rooting for: Gone Girl and The Imitation Game (BECAUSE I CAN'T ROOT FOR BIRDMAN!)
I'm rooting for: Gone Girl and The Imitation Game (BECAUSE I CAN'T ROOT FOR BIRDMAN!)
Sound Mixing:
American Sniper*
Godzilla
Godzilla
Almost put: Whiplash*
Sound Editing:
American Sniper*
Transformers 4
Unbroken
Unbroken
What about: Fury*
Visual Effects:
Dawn of
the Planet of the Apes
Guardians of the
Galaxy
The Hobbit 3*
The Hobbit 3*
Almost put: Maleficent*
Best Make-up
Guardians of the Galaxy*
Best Song:
I'm rooting for: "Lost Stars" and, actually, "The Only Thing" from Third Person, which doesn't have a chance in hell, but I really like it. (Side note: It was so funny seeing hordes of people Shazaam the song during the end credits at TIFF... what ever happened to reading the credits?)
Best Documentary Feature:
The Overnighters
Tales of the Grim Sleeper
Tales of the Grim Sleeper
Almost put: Virunga*
I'm rooting for: Finding Vivian Maier
I'm rooting for: Finding Vivian Maier
Best Foreign Language Film:
Force Majeure – Sweden
Almost put: Tangerines - Estonia*
I'm rooting for: Force Majeure
Best Animated Film:
Big Hero 6
What about: The Book of Life
I'm rooting for: Rocks in My Pockets
I'm rooting for: Rocks in My Pockets
Best Animated Short:
Also shortlisted: Duet*, The Numberlys*, A Single Life*, Symphony No. 42 (seen it, no review)*.
Best Live Action Short:
Short Documentary Short:
Shortlist:
