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| Timothy Spall as J.M.W. Turner. Photo by Simon Mein, Courtesy of Sony Pictures Classics / Mongrel |
Past Actors who scored an Oscar nom without any love from the Globes, SAG, or Critics Choice:
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| Jonah Hill was nominated for The Wolf of Wall Street despite missing out elsewhere. |
-2013: Jonah Hill in The
Wolf of Wall Street – edged out Rush’s
Daniel Brühl, who was endorsed by all of the big three, as well as SAG nominee
James Gandolfini (Enough Said).
-2012: Jacki Weaver in Silver
Linings Playbook – edged The Paperboy’s
Nicole Kidman and The Best Exotic
Marigold Hotel’s Maggie Smith (who doesn’t campaign), both of whom earned
Globe and SAG noms.
-2012: Emmanuelle Riva in Amour – edged out Marion
Cotillard (Rust & Bone) and Helen
Mirren (Hitchcock) even though both
received Globe, SAG, and CC noms. (Although Riva won the BAFTA.)
-2011: Gary Oldman in Tinker
Tailor Soldier Spy – edged out Michael Fassbender (Shame) and Leonardo DiCaprio (J.
Edgar), the latter of whom showed up at all the biggies.
-2010: Javier Bardem in Biutiful
– edged out various actors.
*2010: Mila Kunis missed a nomination for Black Swan despite love from
Globes/SAG/Critics Choice, although nobody scored an unexpected nomination. (It
was just a close year.)
-2009: Maggie Gyllenhaal in Crazy Heart – edged out Julianne Moore (A Single Man) and others.
-2008: Michael Shannon in Revolutionary Road – edged out Dev Patel (Slumdog Millionaire) and others.
-2008: Kate Winslet in The
Reader – edged out Kate Winslet (Revolutionary
Road)… we’ll get to that in minute.
-2007: Tommy Lee Jones in In the Valley of Elah – edged out Ryan Gosling (Lars and the Real Girl) and others.
Most of these “surprise” nominations happen in years and
categories with heavy frontrunners, re: Jared Leto, Anne Hathaway, Colin Firth,
Mo’Nique, Heath Ledger, and Daniel Day-Lewis, respectively, and those actors
who are bumped out rarely appear in a Best Picture nominee. (Save for Dev
Patel.) A wide lead means that ballots may be defer to second choices or,
alternatively, some of the five nominees may earn their nomination by meeting
the minimum requirement for votes by a hair. The only acting categories that
seem to have clear frontrunners this year are Best Supporting Actor and Best
Supporting Actress, while the leads have arguable frontrunners, but no
unstoppable Daniel Day-Lewii.
On the other hand, the nominees that were “edged out” (and I
don’t use that term dismissively) show a pattern of films that lost steam
throughout the season (ex: Rush, J. Edgar) or proved divisive (Shame, The Paperboy), or showed obvious
signs of campaigning for a film deemed so-so (The Paperboy, of which I'm a huge fan of Nicole Kidman's performance). Is Foxcatcher
this year’s J. Edgar as it garners controversy, sluggish box-office, and disappointing Top Ten kudos? Is Cake the Paperboy of 2014 with all of Jennifer Aniston’s aggressive campaigning? Word on her performance is strong even though the film screened at few festivals compared to films featuring her competitors and hasn't screened widely. (It screens here Jan. 21.) Alternatively, could Emma Stone or Keira Knightley be the Mila
Kunis of 2014 and be edged out from Oscar noms despite love for their films and
from the top precursors?
Actors who could “edge out” the competition:
Rene Russo in Nightcrawler
Russo’s collecting a heavy portfolio of support saying that
voters and critics are overlooking her terrific supporting turn in Nightcrawler this year, with Gold Derby
including her on their list of top underdogs and HitFix writing an especially
impassioned FYC article last month. Nightcrawler’s
gaining traction this season and has been a dark horse ever since it opened to
enthusiastic responses at TIFF in September, although few pundits chalked it up
to being an “Oscar movie” despite noting their admiration for it. Jake
Gyllenhaal has also turned up in all three of the Best Actor races and Nightcrawler is picking up more and more
love with the help of year-end reminders, yet Russo’s been largely absent from
the awards citations, aside from a runner-up prize from the LA and one regional
win, even from those dolling out support for both the film and Gyllenhaal.
People love the movie and they love Russo in it, so will voters find this
performance worthy of recognition now that they’re undoubtedly checking out the
film?
Anne Dorval in Mommy
I hate to think that this nomination isn’t happening, but
now that Mommy’s out of the race for
Best Foreign Language Film, fewer voters are likely to bother with it amidst a
busy season. An impressive fifth place in Variety’s whopping list of the 59 best performances of 2014 is a nice shout-out, especially since Dorval
outranks all her competitors, but that and her VFCC nomination probably aren’t
enough, especially when Mommy
distributor Roadside Attractions has been far more aggressive with Hilary Swank’s
bid in The Homesman. You’ll get a
Screenie nomination on the 13th, though, Anne!
Marion Cotillard in Two Days, One Night
Cotillard, like Dorval, might be in a bit of a pickle since
Belgium’s Two Days, One Night was
also among the much-lauded films to miss the foreign film shortlist. She still
seems like one of the actresses hovering on the fringe, or is perhaps the only
one who could edge out, say, Jennifer Aniston, if enough voters still bother
with the film, although Aniston’s doing the kind of press that earns a spot
handily enough. Few contenders are vying for votes in Best Actress, though, outside
the seemingly secure quartet of Julianne Moore, Reese Witherspoon, Rosamund
Pike, and Felicity Jones. The traction Cotillard pulled in the critics’ prizes
could garner some help (although critics’ prizes are mostly amounting to a wall
of noise), especially since Cake
itself is meeting so-so greetings upon high expectations set by Aniston’s
unexpected coup in securing Globe and SAG noms.
Laura Dern in Wild
Why isn’t Wild
getting more love this award season? Dern’s such an effective power in this
film (like Dorval, she earned the top spot on my list of the year’s best performances) and she’s earning the odd nomination here and there from regional
groups and minor critics groups. The film’s coming on strong, especially in
Canada, and Reese Witherspoon’s presence across the board in the precursors
ensures they’ll check out the film. Odds also work in Dern’s favour that the
Academy showered significantly more love on Jean-Marc Vallée’s Dallas Buyers Club than most
industry/critical groups did, nominating it for six prizes including Best
Picture and awarding it three, and Oscar history generally shows that voters
return to the films that inspired them.
Josh Brolin in Inherent Vice
I haven’t seen Inherent
Vice yet, but everyone loves Josh Brolin’s loudmouth cop. (Is “Moto
panacako” already the most frequently quoted line of the year?) Best Supporting
Actor, moreover, is so embarrassingly thin that Robert Duvall’s solid
performance in the lame-sauce The Judge
is a sturdy presence at all of the big three precursors. Best Supporting Actor,
moreover, is a two-way race between JK Simmons (Whiplash) and Edward Norton (Birdman) with Ethan Hawke (Boyhood) and Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher) along for the ride, the
latter of whom is doing so for a fairly modest role. Brolin, like Dern, could
benefit from the fact that Oscar voters have shown ample love to actors in the
films by his director, for Paul Thomas Anderson’s previous films have amassed
seven acting nominations alone. People love this performance. By comparison, how
much do they love Robert Duvall in The
Judge or Mark Ruffalo in Foxcatcher?
Timothy Spall in Mr. Turner
The Academy’s relationship with the films of Mike Leigh is
bizarrely unpredictable. 1996’s Secrets
& Lies earned five noms including Best Picture and 1999’s Topsy-Turvy won two Oscars for craftwork,
yet Leigh’s films garner fewer nominations as the years go by even though he outdoes
himself with every other film. The writers love him, but the actors famously
snubbed Happy-Go-Lucky’s Sally
Hawkins (still a major acting snub given her Golden Globe win and LA,
New York, and National Society of Film Critics’ prizes) and Another Year’s Lesley Manville, while
2004’s Vera Drake earned Leigh a
surprise Best Director nom over Finding
Neverland’s Marc Forster and Hotel
Rwanda’s Terry George. Perhaps the shifting make-up of the actors’ branch,
which is skewing younger and populist, just doesn’t appreciate Leigh films like
it used to. (Blame Adam Sandler.) That could be too bad for Timothy Spall, whose
acclaimed grunting in Mr. Turner has
been an awards-chatter constant since he won Best Actor at Cannes, which boded
well for past Cannes winner Javier Bardem in an equally competitive year, although he had some key celebs in his corner. Is
there enough of a corner that admires this kind of work enough to give Spall an
edge?
Carmen Ejogo and/or Tom Wilkinson in Selma
If any film has gained traction since the Globes, SAGs, and Critics' Choice nominations, it's arguably Selma. The film has the right mix of momentum and merit to score big on Oscar night, and it probably doesn't hurt that it's among the last films on most peoples' lists. Star David Oyelowo is a strong presence at the Globes and the Critics' Choice, and the film simply wasn't ready in time to get screeners to the SAG voting body, but his co-stars Carmen Ejogo and Tom Wilkinson are earning strong smatterings of praise from critics and audiences alike, and the timeliness of the film in light of Ferguson and the significance of Ava DuVernay's shot at being the first African-American female director to be up for Best Director cannot be overlooked. Recent allegations about historical accuracy and race relations are problematic for a film opening widely just as controversy breaks, but the dissenting voices are few amongst a growing swell of support. (DuVernay has also handled the charges well.) Whether or not any of this will affect two actors on the cusp on breaking into the nominees may be relevant, but for two races with viable slots, it could mean a lot.
Carmen Ejogo and/or Tom Wilkinson in Selma
If any film has gained traction since the Globes, SAGs, and Critics' Choice nominations, it's arguably Selma. The film has the right mix of momentum and merit to score big on Oscar night, and it probably doesn't hurt that it's among the last films on most peoples' lists. Star David Oyelowo is a strong presence at the Globes and the Critics' Choice, and the film simply wasn't ready in time to get screeners to the SAG voting body, but his co-stars Carmen Ejogo and Tom Wilkinson are earning strong smatterings of praise from critics and audiences alike, and the timeliness of the film in light of Ferguson and the significance of Ava DuVernay's shot at being the first African-American female director to be up for Best Director cannot be overlooked. Recent allegations about historical accuracy and race relations are problematic for a film opening widely just as controversy breaks, but the dissenting voices are few amongst a growing swell of support. (DuVernay has also handled the charges well.) Whether or not any of this will affect two actors on the cusp on breaking into the nominees may be relevant, but for two races with viable slots, it could mean a lot.
Patricia Arquette in Boyhood
Wouldn’t everything in the Oscar race just work out cleaner
if that fifth spot in the Best Actress category went to Patricia Arquette?
True, she’s been nominated everywhere, so she doesn’t really fit the bill of a
contender without the Globes/SAG/Critics Choice endorsement, but virtually all
her recognition is in the supporting category, except for her lead prize from
the LA critics. Arquette’s performance in Boyhood
could justifiably go either way, since both the screentime and the narrative structure
of the film give her a hefty presence, yet one that grows secondary as the film
progresses. (She truly carries the first half of the film when the kids are so
young.) Arquette could easily win the Best Actress Oscar even though she’s the
frontrunner for Best Supporting Actress by mirroring the awards season
trajectory of Kate Winslet in The Reader,
who amassed supporting wins at the Globes, SAG, Critics’ and elsewhere before
Oscar voters deemed the role a lead. (As did BAFTA.) Arquette’s turn in Boyhood isn’t garnering nearly as much
contention for category fraud as Winslet’s did during the campaign for The Reader, but perhaps the universal
praise for Boyhood and for Arquette’s
performance simply leads most pundits to look the other way.
Update: Cotillard and Spall won acting prizes from the National Society of Film Critics today. I find they're a critical body worth noting for turns in the tide as they are first to unleash their awards in the New Year, if that's worth anything. (Mind you, they also picked Jean-Luc Godard's Goodbye to Language for Best Film, if that gives any indication of tastes!)
Update: Cotillard and Spall won acting prizes from the National Society of Film Critics today. I find they're a critical body worth noting for turns in the tide as they are first to unleash their awards in the New Year, if that's worth anything. (Mind you, they also picked Jean-Luc Godard's Goodbye to Language for Best Film, if that gives any indication of tastes!)
Updated predictions:
* New or moved
Best Picture:
Almost put: Unbroken*
What about: Foxcatcher*, Interstellar, Into the Woods, A Most Violent Year*, Nightcrawler*, Mr. Turner, Still Alice
Best Director
Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Almost put: Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game*
What about: Angelina Jolie, Unbroken, Mike Leigh, Mr. Turner; James Marsh, The Theory of
Everything; Jean-Marc Vallée, Wild.
Best Actor
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
What about: Ralph Fiennes The Grand Budapest Hotel; Oscar Isaac, A Most Violent Year; Joaquin Phoenix, Inherent Vice; Timothy Spall, Mr. Turner; Channing Tatum, Foxcatcher.
Best Actress
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Almost put: Jennifer Aniston, Cake*
What about: Amy Adams, Big Eyes; Patricia Arquette, Boyhood*; Marion Cotillard, The Immigrant; Anne Dorval, Mommy, Hilary Swank, The Homesman
Best Supporting Actor:
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Almost Put: Robert Duvall, The Judge
What about: Benicio Del Toro, Inherent
Vice, Channing Tatum, Foxcatcher*, Tom Wilkinson, Selma*
Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
Almost put: Naomi Watts, Birdman*
What about: Carrie Coon, Gone Girl; Carmen Ejogo, Selma*; Anna Kendrick, Into the Woods, Emma Stone, Birdman, Tilda
Swinton, Snowpiercer, Naomi Watts, St. Vincent, Kristen Stewart, Still Alice
Best Original Screenplay
Birdman – Alejandro
G. Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Armando Bo
Boyhood – Richard
Linklater
The Grand Budapest Hotel– Wes Anderson
Mr. Turner – Mike
Leigh
Whiplash – Damien Chazelle
Whiplash – Damien Chazelle
Almost put: Foxcatcher – E.
Max Frye, Dan Futterman
Best Adapted Screenplay
Gone Girl -
Gillian Flynn
The Imitation Game – Graham Moore
Selma - Paul Webb
The Theory of Everything – Anthony McCarten
The Theory of Everything – Anthony McCarten
Wild – Nick Hornby
Almost put: Inherent Vice –
Paul Thomas Anderson
What about: A Most Wanted Man - Andrew Bovell; Still Alice -
Richard Glatzer, Wash Westmoreland; Unbroken –
Joel Coen, Ethan Coen, Richard Lagravenese, William Nicholson
Best Film Editing:
Almost put: Wild*
What about: Foxcatcher, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, Interstellar*, Into the Woods, Selma*, Unbroken*
Best Cinematography:
Interstellar
Mr. Turner
Mr. Turner
Almost put: Wild
What about: The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Homesman, The Imitation Game, Into the Woods, Selma, Snowpiercer, The Theory of Everything
Best Costumes:
Mr. Turner
Best Production Design:
Mr.
Turner
Almost put: Snowpiercer
Best Score:
Gone Girl– Trent
Reznor, Atticus Ross
The Grand Budapest Hotel– Alexandre Desplat
The Imitation Game – Alexandre Desplat
Sound Mixing:
Sound Editing:
Fury
Transformers 4
Unbroken
Unbroken
What about: Edge of Tomorrow, The Lego
Movie, Snowpiercer
Visual Effects:
Dawn of
the Planet of the Apes
Guardians of the
Galaxy
Also shortlisted: Captain America: Winter Soldier, The Hobbit, Night at the Museum..., Snowpiercer, Transformers 4, X-Men: Days of Future Past
Best Make-up
Guardians of the Galaxy*
Also shortlisted: The Amazing Spider-Man 2*, Foxcatcher, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Noah*
Best Song:
"The Boxtrolls Song", The Boxtrolls*
"Mercy Is," Noah*
What about: "Glory", Selma*, "Miracles", Unbroken; “What is Love?,” Rio 2
Eligible songs: Full list
What about: "Glory", Selma*, "Miracles", Unbroken; “What is Love?,” Rio 2
Eligible songs: Full list
Best Documentary Feature:
The Overnighters
Tales of the Grim Sleeper
Tales of the Grim Sleeper
Best Foreign Language Film:
Force Majeure – Sweden
Almost put: Leviathan - Russia*
Also shortlisted: Corn Island - Georgia*; Accused - The Netherlands*; The Liberator - Venezuela*
List of submitted films on Wikipedia.
*Please see The Film Experience for the best and most comprehensive coverage on
this category.
Best Animated Film:
Big Hero 6
Book of Life
Best Animated Short:
Also shortlisted: Duet*, The Numberlys*, A Single Life*, Symphony No. 42 (seen it, no review)*.
Best Live Action Short:
Short Documentary Short:
Shortlist:
Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
Joanna
Kehinde Wiley: An Economy of Grace
The Lion’s Mouth Opens
One Child
Our Curse
The Reaper (La Parka)
White Earth
Joanna
Kehinde Wiley: An Economy of Grace
The Lion’s Mouth Opens
One Child
Our Curse
The Reaper (La Parka)
White Earth
