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| Birdman should win Best Picture, but will it? |
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| Selma |
The “Snubs”
Let’s acknowledge this from the outset: I
love Selma, I think that Ava DuVernay
is enormously talented, and is more worthy than at least two of the nominated directors (Miller and Tyldum) and, while I honestly don't think their is a conscious effort to exclude visible minorities or women from the awards pool, there is an implicit prejudice to her absence. Case in point: Selma's 'snub', in my opinion, largely results from coming to the game way too late for an independent film that needs considerable critical and public support for voters to scramble and see it and the last second; however, Paramount, Selma's distributor, faced a similar scenario with the late-to-the-party Wolf of Wall Street, which, like Selma, simply wasn't complete in time for some of the early voting bodies to see it. (And I honestly that Paramount, which was clearly banking on Interstellar, didn't quite know what they had until Selma screened as an unfinished cut at AFI the same week that Interstellar was off to a shaky start at the box office.) The difference is that Wolf got five nominations because either a) it's the better film or b) voters will run out to see the new Martin Scorsese movie, but they won't exert themselves to see an acclaimed film by a forty-two-year-old black woman. While Selma still has a Best Picture nomination and a likely win for Best Song, it I feel
that the film should have received at least one more nomination, for David
Oyelowo.
However, the omission of Jake Gyllenhaal is more surprising and notable because he was a larger presence throughout the season since Nightcrawler premiered at TIFF to electric buzz and strong word of mouth, and went on to earn nominations from the Golden Globes, SAG, BAFTA, Critics Choice and more. Gyllenhaal’s absence shows that 2014 was a close and competitive year, but there are bigger snubs amongst the nominees than Selma. Pretty much every acting nominee deserves to be there this year. How does one make a case against any of them?
However, the omission of Jake Gyllenhaal is more surprising and notable because he was a larger presence throughout the season since Nightcrawler premiered at TIFF to electric buzz and strong word of mouth, and went on to earn nominations from the Golden Globes, SAG, BAFTA, Critics Choice and more. Gyllenhaal’s absence shows that 2014 was a close and competitive year, but there are bigger snubs amongst the nominees than Selma. Pretty much every acting nominee deserves to be there this year. How does one make a case against any of them?
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| Where is Wild? |
And if we’re talking snubs, then where is Gone Girl? This film should have more
representation across the board since it’s a commercial and critical hit—a bold
film that was widely seen and hotly debated (for the better)—and it should have
earned more nominations (most significantly Best Picture, Best Adapted
Screenplay, Best Film Editing, and Best Score) given that it was one of the few
major studio hits in competition. Similarly, Wild’s bizarre absence compared to Jean-Marc Vallee’s Dallas Buyers Club is a curious and disappointing
reminder that well-made female driven films can find an audience (it made more
money than DBC and several Best
Picture nominees) but struggle to find favour with the Academy.
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| Birdman |
Best Picture
The
nominees: American Sniper, Birdman,
Boyhood, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, Selma, The Theory of Everything, Whiplash.
The race comes down to a final question:
does one judge this contest with the heart or with the head? Birdman, on paper, checks all the key
points to make Best Picture history. On one level, Birdman follows the trend that Oscar voters have shown favour to
movies about show business in two of the past three years (re: Argo and The Artist). This maverick satire takes aim at the unending
bastardization of the industry into superhero movies and comic book flicks, and
Birdman firmly emphasizes that film
can be art as well as spectacular entertainment. I think most filmmakers and
film lovers can see some aspect of themselves in the film, and they’ll
appreciate the technical and artistic complexity of the film even if they don’t
“get it.”
Birdman
also has the industry on its side more strongly
than Boyhood does, with wins from the
Producers Guild (which is the only other group to employ the same preferential ballot as the Academy), Directors Guild, Screen Actors Guild, American Society of
Cinematographers, Art Directors Guild, and the Cinema Audio Society. Add two
Golden Globes and the fact that Birdman wasn’t eligible at the Writers Guild of
America awards (which Boyhood lost), and
it has all the right ingredients for a logical Best Picture coup. But, here’s
the thing: Birdman hasn’t actually
won a single major Best Picture prize outside of the Producers Guild award and
a few regional critics groups. All the above awards are for its bravura
direction, technical work, acting, and writing. Is Birdman therefore the industry favourite in parts or as a whole?
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| Boyhood |
Then there’s Boyhood, which makes the best emotional appeal to voters and
filmgoers. Richard Linklater and company committed twelve years to this
project, and the evolution of the actors over time works beautifully. It’s more
than just a gimmick: it’s a meditation on the fleeting nature of time, how we
grow up so fast under our parents’ care, and learn and evolve from one year to
the next. Birdman dazzles with its
technical force, but the time lapse of Boyhood
itself poses a technical feat. As one of the annual Brutally Honest Oscar
Voters put to Scott Feinberg in the Hollywood Reporter, “With Boyhood you couldn’t take footage from one
period and shove it into the other to cover a mistake. I mean, what a hard
movie.” No reshoots on this one, just as every one of Birdman’s ambitious long takes needs to be exact and precise for
the whole coup to work.
Boyhood feels like it comes from the heart of American independent cinema:
isn’t this exactly the kind of project to which film school kids aspire? Then
why hasn’t the industry embraced it as warmly and resoundingly as the critics
have? Boyhood boasts major wins from
the Golden Globes and the Critics’ Choice Awards, yes, but those voting bodies
are writers and reviewers and have zero overlap with the Academy. Logically,
the losses for Boyhood at the
Producers and Directors Guilds are significant, but there is still the “twelve
year thing” and that counts for something.
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| The Grand Budapest Hotel |
I think we can look at Boyhood and Birdman by
taking a cue from the 2004 Oscar race in which Sideways was the overwhelming critical favourite and Golden Globe
winner, but lost to Million Dollar Baby,
which was the underdog of the award season until it punched through the
industry gongs on the way to Oscars; similarly, the infamous about face for The Social Network after winning the Globes and Critics Choice and most critical gongs, in favour of guild favourite The King's Speech, is a useful precedent. The new ballot, moreover, probably favours
the ’man over the Boy. Birdman seems
more likely than Boyhood to amass
votes as the Best Picture ballot whittles out the long shots and votes move
down the ballot until one film collects fifty percent: it has more support
across the Academy and, in keeping with the general feel of the year, it has
more wide appeal than Boyhood, which
will probably lead the round of #1 votes. (Sorry Theory of Everything, Selma,
Whiplash, and American Sniper, you don’t have a chance.) The dark horse, I think,
stands to be The Grand Budapest Hotel,
which has hung onto the race remarkably well since opening the same week the
Oscars were handed out last year. Everyone loves it, it’s an admirable feat of
both craftsmanship and storytelling, it’s still picking up steam (five BAFTA
wins!), and is too irresistible to be on the bottom of anyone’s ballot. Budapest will likely lead the awards tally heading into Best Picture with four wins (maybe five since Best Original Screenplay could go either way between it and Birdman) and keep us in suspense.
It will be very close, but I think the night will end with one of two scenarios: Birdman picks up Best Picture in addition to Screenplay, Cinematography, and (maybe) Sound Mixing, or Boyhood takes it after scooping Best Director, Supporting Actress, and Film Editing.
It will be very close, but I think the night will end with one of two scenarios: Birdman picks up Best Picture in addition to Screenplay, Cinematography, and (maybe) Sound Mixing, or Boyhood takes it after scooping Best Director, Supporting Actress, and Film Editing.
★Will
win: Birdman
★I’d
vote for: since this is a ranked ballot, my votes
go as follows:
1) Birdman 2) The Grand Budapest Hotel 3) Selma 4) Boyhood 5) The Imitation Game
(you don't have to include everything, so I'd omit Theory, Whiplash, and Sniper... this just means that my ballot is void if all the films I listed are eliminated.)
1) Birdman 2) The Grand Budapest Hotel 3) Selma 4) Boyhood 5) The Imitation Game
(you don't have to include everything, so I'd omit Theory, Whiplash, and Sniper... this just means that my ballot is void if all the films I listed are eliminated.)
★Shoulda
been there: Wild,
A Most Violent Year, Gone Girl
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| Richard Linklater, Boyhood |
Best Director
The
nominees: Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Birdman; Richard Linklater, Boyhood; Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher; Wes Anderson, The Grand
Budapest Hotel; Morten Tyldum, The
Imitation Game.
This race follows all the arguments listed
above, so, while it's stupid to try and predict a split, I think we’ll see the heart trump the head in this case since Boyhood is, above all, a shrewd feat of
artistic vision. (As is Birdman!) The
race being as close as it is, though, I think that Boyhood’s slight lead in the first round votes will correspond to a
majority’s share of votes in the single vote picks of the Best Director
ballots. It takes confidence and vision to carry a film through twelve years,
although Iñárritu boasts a very good chance of trumping Linklater in this case
due to the obvious demands of directing the demanding long takes in sync with
the actors and the camera and since he has the Directors Guild behind him. This
prize has only mismatched the Oscar three times since 2000—Ben Affleck for Argo, Rob Marshall for Chicago, and Ang Lee for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon—but this
year is defying all the stats. I think this category is the hardest call of the
night!
★Will
win: Richard Linklater, Boyhood
★I’d
vote for: Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Birdman
★Shoulda
been there: Jean-Marc Vallée, Wild; J.C. Chandor, A Most
Violent Year
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| Julianne Moore in Still Alice |
Best Actress
The
nominees: Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night; Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything; Julianne Moore, Still Alice; Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl; Reese Witherspoon, Wild.
Julianne Moore feels like one of the few
sure things of the night. She has the all-important overdue factor—she lost for
Boogie Nights and Far from Heaven!—and
her tally of five nominations doesn’t even include A
Single Man, Safe, or Magnolia. She’s the hardest working top
actress without an Oscar, and her complex, shattering performance as a woman
experiencing early onset Alzheimer’s in Still
Alice simply deserves the award on merit. Add her crazy Cannes-winning
performance in Maps to the Stars, and
she has the performance, story, and range to make her the winner. Reese
Witherspoon could have won this race any other year for giving the performance
of her career in Wild, ditto Rosamund
Pike had Academy members been bigger fans of Gone Girl.
★Will
win: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
★I’d
vote for: Reese Witherspoon, Wild
★Shoulda
been there: Anne Dorval, Mommy
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| Eddie Redmayne in The Theory of Everything |
Best Actor
The
nominees: Steve Carell’s fake nose, Foxcatcher; Bradley Cooper, American Sniper; Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game; Michael Keaton, Birdman; Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything.
Eddie Redmayne or Michael Keaton? Eddie
Redmayne or Michael Keaton? Keaton, in my books, truly deserves this prize. One
could say “forget the comeback and forget the story,” but Keaton’s performance
is so compelling and fascinating because it invites such a novel reading of his
own star status. This extra layer is the whole point, since Birdman is a story of reinvention, of a
man escaping the costume and finding the actor and super hero within. A Best Picture win for Birdman is a win for Keaton it its own way even he doesn't take a prize himself. It’s a
gutsy, complex, and original turn.
Redmayne, on the other hand, is excellent
in his ability to bring to life both Stephen Hawking’s physical journey with
Lou Gehrig’s disease and Stephen Hawking’s spirit. There’s so much heart and
humour in this performance that falls in line with the Academy’s fondness for
awarding actors who recreate real life subjects and grapple with stories of
people with disabilities. The support for Theory
in the Best Picture category easily shows just how much voters love this
performance.
★Will
win: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
★I’d
vote for: Michael Keaton, Birdman
★Shoulda
been there: Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler; Oscar Isaac, A
Most Violent Year; David Oyelowo, Selma
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| Patricia Arquette in Boyhood |
Best Supporting Actress
The
nominees: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood; Laura Dern, Wild;
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game;
Emma Stone, Birdman; Meryl Streep, Into the Woods.
Patricia Arquette is the favourite by a
landslide. Her performance is the heart of Boyhood
and she carries the film. I think her inevitable win here suffices as
recognition for the film as a whole, since the tangible maternal pride she carries for Ellar Coltrane's Mason feels so real. Additionally, her performance has an added element of bravery sine she ages across twelve years in age-averse Hollywood. None of her competitors have much of a
chance at besting her. It would make my night to see Meryl Streep win here,
too, but her fun over-the-top performance as The Witch (and her lovely
rendition of “Stay with Me”) could have brought her a well-deserved fourth
Oscar in another year, but even Streep acknowledges that she's never winning again and she probably needs to surpass her work on Sophie's Choice for Oscar number four.
I really want Laura Dern to win because her performance in Wild infuses the film with so much power and spirit, and she’s certainly gained a lot of momentum for someone who was unfairly overlook all season long. Last year's efforts with her dad on Nebraska prove that she's a shrewd campaigner and a largely unsung member of a grand Hollywood family, too, which gives her added bonuses that her younger competitors lack. Might they work in her favour?
I really want Laura Dern to win because her performance in Wild infuses the film with so much power and spirit, and she’s certainly gained a lot of momentum for someone who was unfairly overlook all season long. Last year's efforts with her dad on Nebraska prove that she's a shrewd campaigner and a largely unsung member of a grand Hollywood family, too, which gives her added bonuses that her younger competitors lack. Might they work in her favour?
★Will
win: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
★I’d
vote for: Laura Dern, Wild
★Shoulda
been there: Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year; Kristen Stewart, Still Alice
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| J.K. Simmons in Whiplash |
Best Supporting Actor
The
nominees: Robert Duvall, The Judge ; Ethan Hawke, Boyhood;
Edward Norton, Birdman; Marc Ruffalo,
Foxcatcher; J.K. Simmons, Whiplash.
I think Whiplash’s
J.K. Simmons is the surest bet of the night. He’s steamrolled his competitors
all year long, and it bodes well for him that the Best Supporting Actor field
of 2014 is so weak that even Robert Duvall’s turn in the lame also-ran The Judge is nominated. I never forgot
that I was watching J.K. Simmons acting, but there’s so much Capital A Acting in
Whiplash that the size of his role--both in terms of screen time and screen presence--makes him an obvious favourite.
★Will
win: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
★I’d
vote for: Edward Norton, Birdman
The rest of the nominees:
Best Original Screenplay
Birdman – Alejandro
G. Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Armando Bo
The Grand Budapest Hotel– Wes Anderson
Nightcrawler - Dan Gilroy
★Will win: Birdman (could be Budapest, too)
★ I'd vote for: Birdman
★Shoulda been there: A Most Violent Year, Maps to the Stars
★Will win: Birdman (could be Budapest, too)
★ I'd vote for: Birdman
★Shoulda been there: A Most Violent Year, Maps to the Stars
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Theory of Everything – Anthony McCarten
Whiplash – Damien Chazelle
★Will win: The Imitation Game
★ I'd vote for: Inherent Vice
★Shoulda been there: Wild, Gone Girl
Best Film Editing:
Whiplash
★Will win: Boyhood (or Whiplash.)
★ I'd vote for: The Grand Budapest Hotel
★Shoulda been there: Wild, Birdman, Gone Girl
★Will win: Boyhood (or Whiplash.)
★ I'd vote for: The Grand Budapest Hotel
★Shoulda been there: Wild, Birdman, Gone Girl
Best Cinematography:
Unbroken
★Will win: Birdman
★ I'd vote for: Birdman
★Shoulda been there: Wild, The Immigrant, Tracks
★Will win: Birdman
★ I'd vote for: Birdman
★Shoulda been there: Wild, The Immigrant, Tracks
Best Costumes:
Best Production Design:
★Will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
★ I'd vote for: The Grand Budapest Hotel
★Shoulda been there: Birdman
Best Score:
The Grand Budapest Hotel– Alexandre Desplat
The Imitation Game – Alexandre Desplat
Interstellar –
Hans Zimmer and the cracked-out church organ
Mr. Turner - Gary Yershon
The Theory of Everything - Johann Johannsson
Mr. Turner - Gary Yershon
The Theory of Everything - Johann Johannsson
★Will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
★ I'd vote for: The Imitation Game
★Shoulda been there: Birdman, Gone Girl, Noah
★ I'd vote for: The Imitation Game
★Shoulda been there: Birdman, Gone Girl, Noah
Sound Mixing:
★Will win: Birdman
★ I'd vote for: Birdman
★Shoulda been there: Wild, Godzilla
★ I'd vote for: Birdman
★Shoulda been there: Wild, Godzilla
Sound Editing:
Birdman
The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies
The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies
Visual Effects:
Captain America: Winter Soldier
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Guardians of the
Galaxy
X-Men: Days of Future Past
★Will win: Interstellar
★ I'd vote for: Interstellar
★Shoulda been there: Godzilla
★Will win: Interstellar
★ I'd vote for: Interstellar
★Shoulda been there: Godzilla
Best Make-up
Foxcatcher
Guardians of the Galaxy
Guardians of the Galaxy
★Will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
★ I'd vote for: The Grand Budapest Hotel
★Shoulda been there: Into the Woods
Best Song:
★Will win: "Glory"
★ I'd vote for: "Lost Stars"
★ Shoulda been there: "The Hanging Tree," The Hunger Games: Mockingjay
Best Documentary Feature:
The Salt of the Earth
★Will win: Citizenfour
★ I'd vote for: Finding Vivian Maier
★ I'd vote for: Finding Vivian Maier
Best Foreign Language Film:
★Will win: Ida
★ I'd vote for: abstain
★Shoulda been there: Mommy, Force Majeure
Best Animated Film:
Big Hero 6
Song of the Sea
★Will win: How to Train Your Dragon
★ I'd vote for: How to Train Your Dragon
★Shoulda been there: Rocks in My Pockets and, yes, The Lego Movie
★ I'd vote for: How to Train Your Dragon
★Shoulda been there: Rocks in My Pockets and, yes, The Lego Movie
Best Animated Short:
The Bigger Picture
The Dam Keeper
Feast
Me and My Moulton
A Single Life
★ Will win: The Dam Keeper
★ I'd vote for: Feast
The Dam Keeper
Feast
Me and My Moulton
A Single Life
★ Will win: The Dam Keeper
★ I'd vote for: Feast
Best Live Action Short:
Short Documentary Short:
Joanna
Our Curse
The Reaper
White Earth
★Will win: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
