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Anne Baxter, Bette Davis, Marilyn Monroe, and George Sanders in 1950 Best Picture winner All About Eve. |
This year marks surprisingly few
smear tactics, “whisper campaigns,” or take-downs for an Oscar season, but it has
some of the worst negative press and most acid-tinged conversations ever.
Everyone from high-profile media to celebrities to TIFF are ramping up the mob mentality.
For all the simplifications going on in the Twittersphere and e-mail letter outrage, however, a few overdue and intelligent conversations emerged about larger systemic problems in the industry. It’s easy to blame the Academy with a hashtag or cry foul like Will Smith (a two-time Academy Award nominee), but, thankfully, well over a year after #OscarsSoWhite surfaced, the film industry is in the middle of a conversation that's more than 140 characters long. But come Sunday, if you’re boycotting the show, mocking the Academy, or serving white cake with a shit-eating grin and you didn’t see Straight Outta Compton, Beasts of No Nation, Tangerine, or Carol, then you are part of the problem.
For all the simplifications going on in the Twittersphere and e-mail letter outrage, however, a few overdue and intelligent conversations emerged about larger systemic problems in the industry. It’s easy to blame the Academy with a hashtag or cry foul like Will Smith (a two-time Academy Award nominee), but, thankfully, well over a year after #OscarsSoWhite surfaced, the film industry is in the middle of a conversation that's more than 140 characters long. But come Sunday, if you’re boycotting the show, mocking the Academy, or serving white cake with a shit-eating grin and you didn’t see Straight Outta Compton, Beasts of No Nation, Tangerine, or Carol, then you are part of the problem.
Oscars are about celebrating talent, though, and this year’s
Oscars are wild and shaky for a second reason that has been lost amidst the outrage:
2015 was a really good year for movies. Tent poles like Mad Max: Fury Road show that blockbusters don’t have to be
brainless. George
Miller’s film offers one of the most badass female characters ever in Charlize
Theron’s Furiosa. Ditto the diversely cast The
Martian and its extraordinarily entertaining trip to space.
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Yes, Leo. The Oscar is in sight. (Deservedly so, too.) |
The Revenant for the win?
The Revenant, this
year’s late to the party game-changer, is a stunningly-shot frontier epic
unlike any before. Sure, its campaign about a tough shoot in Canadian winter is
one horse that’s been resoundingly beaten (suck it up and buy some Hot Paws,
Leo), but it’s one hell of a film, a hot-blooded odyssey infused with Malickian
awe and wonder. There’s a good chance too that Birdman director Alejandro G. Iñárritu stands to make history as the
third person to win Best Director back-to-back after John Ford (for The Grapes of Wrath and How Green Was My Valley) and Joseph L.
Mankiewicz (A Letter to Three Wives
and All About Eve). He could even
outdo his peers by being the first person ever
to make consecutive wins for Best Director and Best Picture. That is very exciting.
The Revenant
probably rests as the safest bet for Best Picture given that it scooped the
Golden Globe, Directors’ Guild Award, and BAFTA, plus oodles of other prizes.
The ranked ballot could hurt it since it’s a divisive film (if it’s not in a
top spot, it could be at the bottom), but its likelihood of winning several
other key categories could give it enough votes. Additionally, it has
nominations in virtually every category in which it was a contender (as a
mostly wordless film, the screenplay omission isn’t too surprising), which
shows ample support.
Otherwise, Mad Max:
Fury Road has a lot to gain from the preferential ballot, but a lack of
gusto at the guilds shows that the industry doesn’t love it as much as the
Internet does. If a big money-maker like Mad
Max doesn’t win at the Producers Guild Awards (The Big Short did), then it’s probably not winning Best Picture. Like
Gravity did a few years ago, Mad Max could have one of the bigger
hauls of the night with technical and craft awards, but not Best Picture.
On the other hand, the race between two biggies sees a contrast
between two smart, timely films. The Big
Short and Spotlight both stand to
gain votes from the ranked ballot, since they’re less divisive and easier to
admire. Both films are slum dunks for winning the screenplay categories—Big Short for Adapted and Spotlight for Original—but they probably
won’t win anything else. One must go all the way back to 1952’s The Greatest Show on Earth to find a
film that won Best Picture and only one other prize (Best Writing, Motion
Picture Story) and before that, 1940’s Rebecca
(Best Picture and Best Cinematography). Other award shows give Best Film and
only one other prize to movies (ex: Gabrielle
winning Best Film and Best Actress at the Canadian Screen Awards, 12 Years a Slave winning Best Film and Best
Actor at the BAFTAs), so there’s bound to be a two-prize Best Picture winner
again at some point.
So what might happen if The
Big Short or Spotlight is poised
to win Best Picture? If the zany film editing of The Big Short tops frontrunner Mad
Max, then one can assume that a) Mad
Max doesn’t have the top prize and b) The
Big Short has enough support to take it.
Spotlight’s only real
chance for an upset to show its Best Picture legs is Best Supporting Actor
nominee Mark Ruffalo. Given the presence of Tom
Hardy over Idris Elba and Michael Shannon (nominees at the Globes, SAG Awards Critics Choice, etc.),
there’s some variability. Sentimentality suggests that Sylvester Stallone is
going to win for his Rocky comeback in Creed,
but the performance isn’t especially remarkable if one removes it from
the context of the franchise and looks at the work in Creed itself. His real award should be the redemption of Rocky after
a string of lousy sequels that stained the legend. For Ruffalo and Stallone,
however, one has to look back to 2001’s Marcia Gay Harden (Pollock) for an Oscar winner who wasn’t nominated by the Screen
Actors Guild, although Ruffalo’s work was acknowledged with the Ensemble win
for Spotlight. The only real constant
of the category this season is Mark Rylance, whose Bridge of Spies has six nominations plus Best Picture. If he wins,
then, well, it’s probably going to be The
Revenant or Mad Max coming out on
top.
The other acting races are all fairly clear. Leo has it in
the bag for The Revenant since even the film’s naysayers generally admire the work and his commitment to this
performance. He also wants it badly and is doing the work to cement the notion
that he is overdue. Room’s Brie
Larson is a safe bet, especially if the film managed an unexpected Best
Director nomination for Lenny Abrahamson.
Alicia Vikander, finally, should win and will win for her
extraordinary performance in The Danish
Girl. She’s probably the safest call of the night, unless irritation with
Focus Features’ choice to campaign her as supporting role when the part is
blatantly a lead sends protest votes or abstentions into the mix. But Oscar
history shows that fake supporting performances usually win anyways, and Vikander
simply gives the best performance of the year. Does a voter penalize an artist
because an awards strategist made a bogus call that paid off? Probably not. Either way, all I can say is this: thank goodness this season is almost over.
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Without further ado, here are final picks for who will win
and should win this Oscar race.
Add your picks to the comments!
★Final Predictions
*I should add that I was able to see all the nominees except A War, When Marnie Was There, and Prologue, but simply didn't have time to write about all of them.
For thoughts on the documentary category, please visit POV.
★Will win: The Revenant
★I'd vote for: Since this category calls for a ranked ballot, mine would go: 1) Spotlight 2) The Revenant 3) Brooklyn 4) Bridge of Spies 5) The Martian 6) Mad Max: Fury Road 7) The Big Short 8) Room
★Shoulda been there: Youth, Carol, Sicario
★Will win: Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
★I'd vote for: Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
★Shoulda been there: Paolo Sorrentino, Youth; Todd Haynes, Carol; Denis Villeneuve, Sicario
★Will win: Amy
★I'd vote for: What Happened, Miss Simone?
★Shoulda been there: Sunshine Superman
★Will win: Son of Saul
★I'd vote for: Son of Saul
★Shoulda been there: The Wanted 18, A Pigeon Sat on a Branch Reflecting on Existence
★Will win: Mad Max: Fury Road
★I'd vote for: The Martian
★Shoulda been there: Brooklyn, Carol
★Will win: The Hateful Eight
★I'd vote for: Sicario
★Shoulda been there: Steve Jobs, The Danish Girl, Brooklyn
"Writing's on the Wall," Spectre
★Will win: 'Til it Happens to You'
★I'd vote for: 'Simple Song #3'
★Shoulda been there: 'Cold One', Ricki and the Flash
★Will win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
★I'd vote for: Ex Machina
★Will win: The Revenant
★I'd vote for: The Revenant
Boy Team 12
Chau
Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of Shoah
Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
Last Day of Freedom
★Will win: Last Day of Freedom
★I'd vote for: Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
*I should add that I was able to see all the nominees except A War, When Marnie Was There, and Prologue, but simply didn't have time to write about all of them.
For thoughts on the documentary category, please visit POV.
Best Picture:
★Will win: The Revenant
★I'd vote for: Since this category calls for a ranked ballot, mine would go: 1) Spotlight 2) The Revenant 3) Brooklyn 4) Bridge of Spies 5) The Martian 6) Mad Max: Fury Road 7) The Big Short 8) Room
★Shoulda been there: Youth, Carol, Sicario
Best Director:
Lenny Abrahamson, Room
Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Adam McKay, The Big Short
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Adam McKay, The Big Short
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
★Will win: Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
★I'd vote for: Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
★Shoulda been there: Paolo Sorrentino, Youth; Todd Haynes, Carol; Denis Villeneuve, Sicario
Best Actor:
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
★Will win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
★I'd vote for: Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
★Shoulda been there: Michael Caine, Youth; Jake Gyllenhaal, Southpaw
★Will win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
★I'd vote for: Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
★Shoulda been there: Michael Caine, Youth; Jake Gyllenhaal, Southpaw
Best Actress:
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
★Will win: Brie Larson, Room
★I'd vote for: Cate Blanchett, Carol
★Shoulda been there: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl; Nina Hoss, Phoenix
★Will win: Brie Larson, Room
★I'd vote for: Cate Blanchett, Carol
★Shoulda been there: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl; Nina Hoss, Phoenix
Best Supporting Actor:
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
★Will win: Sylvester Stallone, Creed
★I'd vote for: Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
★Shoulda been there: Benicio Del Toro, Sicario; Michael Shannon, 99 Homes; Michael Keaton, Spotlight
★I'd vote for: Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
★Shoulda been there: Benicio Del Toro, Sicario; Michael Shannon, 99 Homes; Michael Keaton, Spotlight
Best Supporting Actress:
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
★Will win: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
★I'd vote for: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
★Shoulda been there: Jane Fonda, Youth; Marion Cotillard, Macbeth
★Will win: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
★I'd vote for: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
★Shoulda been there: Jane Fonda, Youth; Marion Cotillard, Macbeth
Best Original Screenplay:
Inside Out - Pete Docter et al
Spotlight – Tom
McCarthy, Josh Singer
Straight Outta Compton - The white folks
★Will win: Spotlight
★I'd vote for: Spotlight
★Shoulda been there: Youth, Sicario, The Hateful Eight
Straight Outta Compton - The white folks
★Will win: Spotlight
★I'd vote for: Spotlight
★Shoulda been there: Youth, Sicario, The Hateful Eight
Best Adapted Screenplay:
The Big Short - Adam McKay, Charles Randolph
Room– Emma
Donoghue
★Will win: The Big Short
★I'd vote for: Carol
★Shoulda been there: Steve Jobs, Far from the Madding Crowd
★Will win: The Big Short
★I'd vote for: Carol
★Shoulda been there: Steve Jobs, Far from the Madding Crowd
Best Documentary Feature:
★I'd vote for: What Happened, Miss Simone?
★Shoulda been there: Sunshine Superman
Best Foreign Language Film:
Embrace of the Serpent - Colombia
Mustang - France
Son of Saul –
Hungary
Theeb - Jordan
Theeb - Jordan
A War – Denmark
★Will win: Son of Saul
★I'd vote for: Son of Saul
★Shoulda been there: The Wanted 18, A Pigeon Sat on a Branch Reflecting on Existence
Best Animated Film:
Anomalisa
The Boy and the World
Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep
When Marnie Was There
★Will win: Inside Out
★I'd vote for: Shaun the Sheep
The Boy and the World
Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep
When Marnie Was There
★Will win: Inside Out
★I'd vote for: Shaun the Sheep
Best Cinematography:
★Will win: The Revenant
★I'd vote for: The Revenant
★Shoulda been there: Youth, Brooklyn
★I'd vote for: The Revenant
★Shoulda been there: Youth, Brooklyn
Best Film Editing:
★Will win: Mad Max: Fury Road
★I'd vote for: The Revenant
★Shoulda been there: Steve Jobs, Sicario
★I'd vote for: The Revenant
★Shoulda been there: Steve Jobs, Sicario
Best Costumes:
★Will win: Mad Max: Fury Road
★I'd vote for: The Danish Girl
★Shoulda been there: The Hateful Eight, Brooklyn, Macbeth
★I'd vote for: The Danish Girl
★Shoulda been there: The Hateful Eight, Brooklyn, Macbeth
Best Production Design:
★Will win: Mad Max: Fury Road
★I'd vote for: The Martian
★Shoulda been there: Brooklyn, Carol
Best Original Score:
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
★Will win: The Hateful Eight
★I'd vote for: Sicario
★Shoulda been there: Steve Jobs, The Danish Girl, Brooklyn
Best Original Song:
★Will win: 'Til it Happens to You'
★I'd vote for: 'Simple Song #3'
★Shoulda been there: 'Cold One', Ricki and the Flash
Best Visual Effects:
Star Wars: The Force
Awakens
★Will win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
★I'd vote for: Ex Machina
Best Sound Mixing:
Star Wars: The Force
Awakens
The Revenant
The Revenant
★Will win: The Revenant
★I'd vote for: The Revenant
Best Make-Up:
The 100-Year Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared
Best Animated Short
Bear Story
Prologue
Sanjay’s Super Team
We Can’t Live Without Cosmos
World of Tomorrow
★Will win: World of Tomorrow
★I'd vote for: World of Tomorrow
Prologue
Sanjay’s Super Team
We Can’t Live Without Cosmos
World of Tomorrow
★Will win: World of Tomorrow
★I'd vote for: World of Tomorrow
Best Live Action Short
★Will win: Shok
★I'd vote for: Everything Will Be Okay
★I'd vote for: Everything Will Be Okay
Best Documentary Short
Chau
Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of Shoah
Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
Last Day of Freedom
★Will win: Last Day of Freedom
★I'd vote for: Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah