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12/11/2016

Oscars Predictions: Round 2 - Golden Globe and SAG Edition

Sorry for neglecting these! Oscar predictions and commentary have kind of flatlined here, simply because I've been trying to see all the films. Here are updated Oscar predictions with quick stabs at the Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild nominations coming out this week. La La Land, Moonlight, and Manchester by the Sea are sitting about even with each of them taking a major critics' prize last week. However, the recent waves of critical kudos are products of debate. Voters in these groups don't sit around a room and form a consensus whereas the critics' groups are forming a narrative in which Moonlight is becoming a champion for diversity in addition to being an overall great film. I think Moonlight has the most to prove here given that it's the film that critics are generally rallying behind, but it might be a victim of over-hype. Arthouse audiences love it too, so can it break out and be the little film that could? On the other hand, bigger films like Arrival should show their strengths and shake things up. Remember: at this point in recent years, The Social Network, Zero Dark Thirty, and Boyhood all seemed like the films to beat.





Golden Globe Predictions


Best Film - Drama


This part is where the race really begins. Does Manchester by the Sea have legs? Does Scorsese deliver the goods with Silence? Is Moonlight a crossover hit or just a critics' darling? Or are Loving and/or Fences safer bets for voters looking to promote diversity? Are people underestimating the power of Jackie, Arrival, and/or Hell or High Water?

Predictions:
Arrival
Jackie
Loving
Manchester by the Sea
Silence

Alt: Fences

Best 'Comedy' or Musical


La La Land leads, while the others fill out the space and sort of get a boost.

Predictions:

20th Century Women
The Edge of Seventeen
Florence Foster Jenkins
La La Land
Love & Friendship

Alt: Hail, Caesar!

Best Actor - Drama


The field is slim. Chances are this list will yield four or five of the Oscar nominees.

 Predictions
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Joel Edgerton, Loving
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Tom Hanks, Sully
Denzel Washington, Fences

Alt: Chris Pine, Hell or High Water

Best Actress - Drama


This race is probably the most exciting and important of the lot. Who has the juice to take on Emma Stone? Will Amy Adams compete against herself? Can Isabelle Huppert get the major hardware she deserves? Is there room for Taraji P. Henson?

Predictions

Amy Adams, Arrival
Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie

Alt: Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane

Best Actor - 'Comedy' or Musical


Ryan Gosling should win pretty easily. Coming up with five names for this ballot feels like scraping the barrel. Hugh Grant is probably runner-up unless he winds up in supporting where he's campaigning for the Oscars. But wouldn't it be fun to see an off-the-wall performance like Josh Brolin in Hail, Caesar! or my personal Best Actor pick Peter Simonischek in Toni Erdmann?
*Updated: Captain Fantastic was deemed a drama by the Globes ('not as funny as The Martian,' they said), hence no Viggo.

Predictions

Warren Beatty, Rules Don't Apply
Josh Brolin, Hail, Caesar!
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool



Best Actress - 'Comedy' or Musical


It's Emma versus Annette, round one! I'm really hoping that Meryl Streep picks up some steam here with a nom for Florence Foster Jenkins, which was never going to be a player with critics' prizes but could appear in the main/key Globe and SAG noms. She won't win because she's getting the honorary award, but that's just as good in terms of face time.

Predictions

Kate Beckinsale, Love & Friendship
Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Emma Stone, La La Land
Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins  

Alt: Sally Field, Hello My Name is Doris

 Best Supporting Actor


Perhaps the most open race of them all. It'll be a big boost for anyone here, especially Moonlight's Mahershala Ali, who is the early critical favourite for his brief but excellent appearance, and Jeff Bridges and Dev Patel, who risk being considered lead performances.

Predictions

Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Ben Foster, Hell or High Water
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

Alt: Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea

Best Supporting Actress


Best Supporting Actress, on the other hand, is stacked with fierce competitors. Viola Davis might be the remedy for #OscarsSoWhite3 with the icing on the cake being that Moonlight's Naomie Harris and Hidden Figures' Octavia are also contenders. Don't count out Michelle Williams, though, who could foreshadow a sweep for Manchester by the Sea.


Predictions
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Alt: Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures

Best Director

Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Pablo Larrain, Jackie
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Martin Scorsese, Silence 
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

Alt: Jeff Nichols, Loving

Best Screenplay

Jackie
La La Land
Loving
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
 

Best Foreign Language Film

Elle - France
Neruda - Chile
The Salesman - Iran
Things to Come - France
Toni Erdmann - Germany

Best Animated Film

Finding Dory
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
Sing
Zootopia 

Best Score

Arrival
Jackie
Manchester by the Sea
Moana  
 Silence
 


SAG Predictions


Best Ensemble

I really have no idea how this is going down. SAG skews much younger than the Academy and, despite the bad rap that the Golden Globes get, they are prone to vote for the films that campaign the hardest. They're pretty notorious for passing over the films that aren't readily available on screeners, so late to the game players might not show up here.


Predictions
Fences
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

Alt: Hell or High Water

Best Actor

Casey Affleck, Manchester By the Sea 
Joel Edgerton, Loving
Ryan Gosling, La La Land  
Tom Hanks, Sully
Denzel Washington, Fences

Best Actress


Amy Adams, Arrival
Annette Bening, 20th Century Women 
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

Best Supporting Actress

Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight 
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea  

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Ben Foster, Hell or High Water
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Tom Wilkinson, Denial

    

Updated Oscar predix:

*New or moved

Best Picture:
Arrival
Fences
Hell or High Water
Jackie
La La Land
Loving
Manchester By the Sea
Moonlight*
Silence* 


What about: Lion, Hidden Figures, Miss Sloane*, Nocturnal Animals,  Toni Erdmann, Sully, 20th Century Women

Falling off: Allied*, Love & Friendship*


Best Director
Damian Chazelle, La La Land
Pablo Larrain, Jackie*
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Martin Scorsese, Silence*
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

What about: Maren Ade, Toni Erdmann; David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water; John Madden, Miss Sloane; Jeff Nichols, Loving*; Denzel Washington, Fences*

Falling off: Robert Zemeckis, Allied*; Mike Mills, 20th Century Women

Best Actress
Amy Adams, Arrival
Ruth Negga, Loving*
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

What about: Kate Beckinsale, Love & Friendship; Annette Bening, 20th Century Women; Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane*; Isabelle Huppert, Elle; Ruth Negga, Loving, Rachel Weisz, Denial

Falling off: Sonia Braga, Aquarius*; Marion Cotillard, Allied*; Sally Field, Hello, My Name is Doris*; Viola Davis, Fences*

Best Actor
Casey Affleck, Manchester By the Sea 
Joel Edgerton, Loving
Ryan Gosling, La La Land  
Tom Hanks, Sully
Denzel Washington, Fences

What about: Adam Driver, Paterson; Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge*; Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals; Chris Pine, Hell or High Water

Falling off: Logan Lerman, Indignation*; Nate Parker, Birth of a Nation*, Brad Pitt, Allied*; Ethan Hawke, Born to Be Blue*, Dev Patel, Lion*

Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky*
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

What about: Margaret Bowman, Hell or High Water; Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women; Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Miss Sloane*; Alison Pill, Miss Sloane; Chloe Sevigny, Love & Friendship, Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures

Falling off: Linda Emond, Indignation*; Sarah Gadon, Indignation*; Julianne Moore, Maggie’s Plan*
 

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight*
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Ben Foster, Hell or High Water
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

What about: Jovan Adepo, Fences; Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea*;  Trevonte Rhodes, Moonlight; Alan Rickman, Eye in the Sky; Timothy Spall, Denial*, Tom Wilkinson, Denial

Falling off: Tracy Letts, Indignation*; Mark Strong, Miss Sloane*

Adapted Screenplay
Arrival
Fences
Love & Friendship
Nocturnal Animals 
Silence*

What about: Elle, Hidden Figures*, Lion* A Monster Calls*

Falling off: Indignation*, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk*

Original Screenplay
Hell or High Water
Jackie*
Loving
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

What about: Café Society, The Edge of Seventeen, Eye in the Sky*, The Lobster, Miss Sloane*, Toni Erdmann, 20th Century Women, 

 Falling off: Birth of a Nation*, Wiener-Dog*

Best Film Editing
Arrival
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Silence*

What about: Miss Sloane, Moonlight, Sully, Jackie*, Star Wars: Rogue One

Best Cinematography
Arrival
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Nocturnal Animals
Silence*

What about: Café Society, Hail, Caesar!*,  Jackie*

Falling off: AmericanPastoral*, Birth of a Nation*

Best Score
Arrival
Jackie
Finding Dory
La La Land
Moana

What about: Manchester By the Sea, Nocturnal Animals*, Silence*

Best Song
Loving, "Loving"*
La La Land, “City of Stars”
Moana, “Because It’s Lin-Manuel Miranda”
Miss Sharon Jones!, “I’m Still Here”
Sing Street, “Drive It Like You Stole It”

What about: Deepwater Horizon (“Take Me Down”), La La Land (“Audition - Those Who Dream”), Wiener-Dog (“The Ballad of Wiener-Dog”)

Best Costumes
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land
Love and Friendship
Silence*

What about: Birth of a Nation, Café Society, The Dressmaker, Hail, Caesar!* The Magnificent Seven, Silence

Best Production Design
Arrival
The BFG
La La Land
Passengers
Silence*

What about: American Pastoral, Birth of a Nation, Café Society, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Florence Foster Jenkins, Hail, Caesar!*, Love and Friendship,  A Monster Calls*

Best Hair and Make-Up
Hacksaw Ridge*
Hail, Caesar!*
Silence*  

Best Visual Effects
Arrival
The BFG
Deepwater Horizon*
The Jungle Book
Star Wars: Rogue One

What about: Suicide Squad, Sully, Passengers*

Best Documentary
13th
Fire at Sea 
Gleason
I am Not Your Negro 
Weiner

Also shortlisted: Cameraperson*, Command and Control*, The Eagle Huntress*, Hooligan Sparrow*, The Ivory Game*, Life, Animated, OJ Simpson: Made in America, Tower, The Witness*, Zero Days* 

Best Foreign Language Film
The Ardennes (Belgium)
Ma’Rosa (Philippines)
Neruda (Chile)
Sand Storm (Israel)
Toni Erdmann (Germany)

Other submissions reviewed: The Distinguished Citizen (Argentina), Tanna (Australia), It's Only the End of the World (Canada), Elle (France), Port of Call (Hong Kong),  Fire at Sea (Italy), Dawn (Latvia), Very Big Shot (Lebanon), Eva Nova (Slovakia), The Age of Shadows (South Korea), My Life as a Courgette (Switzerland), As I Open My Eyes (Tunisia).

Best Animated Film
Finding Dory
Kubo and the Two Strings
The Little Prince
Moana
The Red Turtle

What about: My Life as a Courgette, Zootopia

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