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| Sebastian (Ryan Gosling) and Mia (Emma Stone) in La La Land. Photo by Dale Robinette / an Entertainment One release. |
Is it Globe time already? A look at the will wins and should
wins of this weekend’s big show before Oscar ballots go back to the Academy.
La La Land winning
here is as sure a thing as one may find. It’s an overwhelmingly heavy favourite
that sweeps people off their feet and the level of technical/artistic
complexity above the other nominees is significant. Nothing’s even close,
despite four nominations for Paramount’s delightful Florence Foster Jenkins and surprise superhero flick Deadpool offering some mainstream
contenders. 20th Century Women
is an excellent and observant dramedy, but it hasn’t had much luck this
season despite the squeak of Bening buzz at its premiere, while the
well-deserved nomination for Sing Street
ensures that Globes voters grabbed their ballots, followed their hearts, and
drove it like they stole it.
Will win: La La Land
I’d vote for: La La Land
Shoulda been there: Love & Friendship, The Edge of Seventeen
Best Film – Drama
This batch is actually quite significant for the industry
given that the major studios—Paramount, Warner Bros., Universal, Fox, and
Sony—were all shut out from this category in favour of the indies. It’s proof
that the better movies are generally getting smaller as studios continue with
the tent pole extravaganzas over of mid-budget dramas that appeal to adults.
Independents are doing all the heavy lifting and, in many cases, reaping the
benefits. Either Manchester by the Sea or
Moonlight will triumph here. They
both need a win to catch up on La La Land.
Manchester is the more conventional
awards fodder and is sure to nab a few Globes, but Moonlight is the critical darling. Hell or High Water, in my books, deserves the prize for its intense
and fascinating deconstruction of the western within the contemporary breakdown
of the American dream. Lion is an
underdog, while Mel Gibson’s repugnantly violent yet weirdly religious Hacksaw Ridge is just a loony
nomination.
Will win: Manchester by the Sea
I’d vote for: Hell or High Water
Best Director
The nominees: Damien Chazelle, La La Land; Tom Ford, Nocturnal
Animals; Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge;
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight; Kenneth
Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
The big showdown between the dramatists and the glee club!
Will La La Land’s Damien Chazelle
help the film lead take a huge score at the Globes? (With six possible wins, La La Land could be the biggest Golden
Globe winner in some time.) Barry Jenkins is a major contender here given how
strongly the distinct vision of Moonlight
sweetens the pot in terms of awarding a black director on the heels of
#OscarsSoWhite. (The Hollywood Foreign Press Association is an international
body, though, so anyone who calls the Golden Globes racist at your party should
kindly be shown the door.) But this blog hopes that the boozy, boozy nocturnal
animals at the Globes love Tom Ford’s movie enough to bestow upon him Best
Director—or, that they at least weren’t too mad about having to return
some of his perfume.
Will win: Damien
Chazelle
I’d vote for: Tom
Ford
Shoulda been there: Pablo
Larraín, Jackie; Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Best Actor – Drama
The nominees: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea; Joel Edgerton, Loving; Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw
Ridge; Viggo Mortensen, Captain
Fantastic; Denzel Washington, Fences
I’ll never get the hype over Affleck’s performance, since
he’s almost subdued to the point of boredom, but he’s the frontrunner by all
counts. Washington’s the potential spoiler here given the volume of his
performance, although the relatively weaker showing for Fences compared to Manchester
by the Sea gives Affleck an edge. Four of these actors will likely join
Ryan Gosling in the Oscar race, so an upset would be very exciting.
Will win: Casey
Affleck
I’d vote for: Joel
Edgerton
Best Actress – Drama
The nominees: Amy Adams, Arrival;
Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane; Isabelle
Huppert, Elle; Ruth Negga, Loving; Natalie Portman, Jackie
Portman, Portman, Portman! Natalie will and should steamroll
the competition even though this category offers one of the strongest Best
Actress line-ups in years. However, if Huppert’s going to gain any traction
from a mainstream voting body, it could be the Globes given that the relatively
small size of the membership means that this controversial film and performance
doesn’t need to conform to mainstream tastes. The nomination itself is both
remarkable and overdue.
Will win: Natalie
Portman
I’d vote for: Portman
Best Actor – ‘Comedy’ or Musical
The nominees: Colin Farrell, The Lobster; Ryan Gosling, La
La Land; Hugh Grant, Florence Foster
Jenkins; Jonah Hill, War Dogs;
Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool
How exciting is it that this race is a battle between two
Canadian Ryans? Gosling is pure charisma and soulful passion as the aspiring
jazz pianist of La La Land, while
Reynolds’ uproarious performance works on every level even if he spends most of
the movie behind the mask. It’s impressive to see Reynolds land this
nomination, but the other Ryan has it in the bag.
Will win: Ryan Gosling
I’d vote for: Gosling
Shoulda been there: Peter
Simonischek, Toni Erdmann; Josh
Brolin, Hail, Caesar!
Best Actress – ‘Comedy’ or Musical
The nominees: Annette Bening, 20th Century Women;
Lily Collins, Rules Don’t Apply; Hailee
Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen; Emma
Stone, La La Land; Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Meryl Streep celebrates her whopping thirtieth Golden Globe nomination with Florence Foster Jenkins and she deserves to win her ninth Globe for
Florence Foster Jenkins. As E! Online suggests, it stands to reason that at least a dozen HFPA members
have voted for Streep in everything she’s done—admittedly, this blogger would
have voted for her 22 times and that’s not counting the egregious omissions for
Ricki and the Flash, A Prairie Home Companion, and Plenty. (The latter of which is not
okay, since that lone nomination for Out
of Africa does not suffice to represent her work from 1985.) With all this
being said, though, Streep is for sure taking home her ninth Golden Globe this
year—as the recipient of the Cecil B. DeMille Award. However, the winner of the
honorary award won’t topple the favourite, so Emma Stone gets a Globe for La La Land—a well-deserved win for a
performance that could define her career. Annette Bening, finally, is the dark
horse for her resilient performance in 20th
Century Women.
Will win: Emma
Stone
I’d vote for: Meryl
Streep
Shoulda been there: Kate
Beckinsale, Love & Friendship
Best Supporting Actor
The nominees: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight; Jeff Bridges, Hell
or High Water; Simon Helberg, Florence
Foster Jenkins; Dev Patel, Lion;
Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals
It’s the race we’ve all been waiting for: Simon Helberg
versus Aaron Taylor-Johnson! Just kidding. But, no, seriously, the two
most-derided nominees of last month’s announcement are great performances in their
own rights. They might not be stronger than some of the performances that
aren’t here, like Taylor-Johnson’s Nocturnal
Animals co-star Michael Shannon, but it’s refreshing to see the Globes vote
outside of the echo chamber of critics’ prizes. Similarly, some might say the
same of Jeff Bridges over Hell or High
Water co-star Ben Foster, although Bridges gives the strongest performance
in this category by a considerable margin in my books. However, the heavy
favourite on that front is Mahershala Ali for his excellent performance in Moonlight and it’s a relief to see that
a legitimate supporting performance is winning awards.
Will win: Mahershala
Ali
I’d vote for: Jeff
Bridges
Shoulda been there: Tom
Wilkinson, Denial; Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
Best Supporting Actress
The nominees: Viola Davis, Fences; Nicole Kidman, Lion;
Naomi Harris, Moonlight; Octavia
Spencer, Hidden Figures; Michelle
Williams, Manchester by the Sea
It’s hard to deny the power of Viola Davis’s performance.
She’s excellent in Fences playing the
strong and long-suffering wife to Denzel Washington’s Willy Loman-like
character. However, there’s a strong case to designate her performance as a
lead. Her Rose is in most of the film even if the dynamic of the film positions
Washington’s Maxson as the obvious protagonist of Fences over the subservient Rose.
She will undoubtedly win the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress and
be the third actress in a row to nab the prize with a leading role. (The
decision to campaign Davis is unsurprising given that Paramount has Amy Adams
in Arrival and Meryl Streep in Florence Foster Jenkins fighting for lead nominations, but no
legitimate contenders in the supporting category.)
I’m always conflicted
about the extent to which actors should suffer for the bougs calls that award
strategists make. Admittedly, I begrudgingly voted for Davis on the final
ballot of the OFCS awards because her work far and away eclipsed the
performances of the other nominees, among which were Golden Globe contenders
Naomie Harris, Michelle Williams, and Octavia Spencer—all of whom are excellent
in comparatively brief roles. The same goes for the fifth nominee at the
Globes, Nicole Kidman, who gives a devastating performance in just a few
scenes. Does one vote for the best performance by an actress in a supporting
role, or the best performance by an actress campaigned as a supporting role?
Will win: Viola
Davis
I’d vote for: Nicole
Kidman
Shoulda been there: Dakota
Johnson, A Bigger Splash; Helen
Mirren, Eye in the Sky
Best Screenplay
The nominees: Hell or
High Water, Taylor Sheridan; La La
Land, Damien Chazelle; Manchester by
the Sea, Kenneth Lonergan; Moonlight,
Barry Jenkins; Nocturnal Animals,
Tom Ford.
“Two time Golden Globe winner Tom Ford.”
Will win: Manchester by the Sea
I’d vote for: Nocturnal Animals
Shoulda been there: Jackie
Best Animated Film
The nominees: Kubo and the Two Strings, Moana, My Life as a Zucchini, Sing, Zootopia
Anything could win here. Kubo
eclipses the competition in terms of skill, difficulty, and breathtaking
artistry, but Moana and Zootopia and fun, if juvenile, efforts
with feel-good messages of inclusivity that one must appreciate.
Will win: Moana
I’d vote for: Kubo
Shoulda been there: The Little Prince
Best Foreign Language Film
The nominees: Divines (France),
Elle (France), Neruda (Chile), The Salesman
(Iran/France), Toni Erdmann (Germany)
Toni Erdmann is
the favourite this season, but Elle has
serious fans. Both films are worthy contenders.
Will win: Toni Erdmann
I’d vote for: Toni Erdmann
Shoulda been there: Tanna (Australia), The Handmaiden (South Korea)
Best Score
The nominees: Arrival,
Hidden Figures, La La Land, Lion,
Moonlight
Well, La La Land is
a musical, so…
Will win: La La Land
I’d vote for: Arrival
Shoulda been there: Jackie, Nocturnal Animals
Best Original Song
The nominees: “Can’t Stop the Feeling,”
the horrible depravity that is Trolls; “City of Stars,” La La Land; “Faith,” Sing; “Gold,” Gold; “How
Far I’ll Go,” Moana
These nominees are pretty weak considering the field…
Will win: “City
of Stars”
I’d vote for: “City
of Stars”
Shoulda been there: “The Ballad of Wiener-Dog,”
Wiener-Dog; “Drive It Like You Stole It,”
Sing Street; “Another Day of Sun,” La La Land
What are your Golden Globe picks and predictions?
