1/19/2017

Oscars Round 4 - Here Come the Nominations!

Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling in La La Land, an Entertainment One release.
Photo by Dale Robinette
The ballots are in and accountants are busy! The Oscar nominations come out Tuesday morning without the usual fanfare of woohoos! in the room. Not only is the Academy keeping the press announcement press and publicist free, but the inauguration of Donald Trump as President of the USA leaves the Oscar nominations at the end of a very dire news cycle. It's times like this one in which a feel-good film like La La Land stands poised to sweep.


Arrival

Best Picture


La La Land is a slam dunk for a Best Picture nomination and Oscar fans should expect the Ryan Gosling/Emma Stone musical to lead the field. The only real hurdle the film has is that it's the obvious frontrunner and might leave folks disappointed. On its heels are the two other sure things, Moonlight and Manchester by the Sea, which stand to gain about five to eight nominations apiece depending on how much their arts and crafts work tags along with their inevitable nominations for directing, writing, and acting.

In fourth is Denis Villeneuve's sci-fi dazzler Arrival, which is the only other safe bet for a Best Director nomination given his shout-outs at the Directors' Guild and BAFTA nominations. This beautiful and brainy film might be next in line for the biggest haul of nominations. It's been twenty years since Canucks James Cameron and Atom Egoyan were up for Best Director and it would be nice to see Villeneuve land the honour as his profile rises in Hollywood.

After those films, Lion looks like reasonable choice given its strong showing at the Golden Globes and its surprise nomination for Garth Davis at the Directors Guild awards. A DGA nomination all but assures a Best Picture nomination, but the actual DGA/Oscar overlap in terms of Best Director almost always matches only four for five. He's probably the outlier.

Maybe chalk up the fifth Best Director slot to David Mackenzie for his phenomenal work in Hell or High Water. One of the year's sleeper hits, the film resonates in the shadow of Trump's America. It's also a pulsating mediation on violence and simply a tautly constructed, boldly acted film. There's more bait there for a director's slot than Lion, although Davis certainly nets some points for drawing such a great performance out of child actor Sunny Pawar.

Rounding out the flexible six to ten spots are likely Hidden Figures, which picked up a lot of steam and enthusiasm at the end of voting; Fences, which is assured at least two acting nominations and a likely screenplay bid; and maybe Silence if the Academy members stayed awake and admire Scorsese's effort. Nocturnal Animals also has some major fans and keeps surprising on the awards circuit. Jackie, finally, really deserves to be there and should be, but it seems that acknowledgement for Natalie Portman's performance suffices in most eyes.

Natalie Portman in Jackie.
Photo by Stephanie Branchu/ Twentieth Century Fox Film Corporation

Best Actress


Portman versus Stone continues and, like the Best Picture field, Arrival's Amy Adams is a safe bet and a steady presence. Don't count out Meryl Streep, who landed all the key precursors with the Golden Globe, SAG, and BAFTA nominations. Sure, she missed out at the Critics Choice in the Best Actress category, but she won their prize for Best Actress in a Comedy field.


That fifth spot, though, could really go any way between Isabelle Huppert (Elle), Emily Blunt (The Girl on the Train), Taraji P. Henson (Hidden Figures), Annette Bening (20th Century Women) and Ruth Negga (Loving). Huppert is the critical choice given that she topped most of the journos' group prizes and scooped the Golden Globe in an upset win over Natalie Portman. But even a Golden Globe and wins from the top critics' groups--New York, LA, and the National Society of Film Critics--doesn't mean an Oscar nom is secure. Just ask, say, Sally Hawkins, who performed just as well in the far less polarizing Happy-Go-Lucky. Elle is very controversial, but the strong support for this performance probably means that Huppert will net more 'passion votes' (aka #1s) than the other remaining contenders.

However, Stone and Portman are heavy favourites, and there's always the chance that votes in this category will have to be redistributed to the second choices. This stage is great news for Taraji P. Henson, a dark horse with a lot of fans, or Emily Blunt, who might struggle to land at the top of ballots since her film just stinks even if she's great. Blunt surprised at both the SAG awards and the BAFTA nominations, although Elle's ineligibility in the UK due to release dates means the field in the latter doesn't necessarily match Oscar's criteria. Bening, on the other hand, just got lost in the busy winter schedule despite the fact that her performance has the goods to go all the way. Negga, finally, seems to be fading just as Loving is overall.

Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea

Best Actor


This category has more clear of a picture with Casey Affleck and Denzel Washington duking it out. Throw in Golden Globe winner Ryan Gosling for his suave performance and great chemistry with Emma Stone. Ditto Andrew Garfield, who's remarkable in Hacksaw Ridge regardless of what one thinks of the film. Capping off the category might be the quiet presence of Joel Edgerton in Loving, which is an underplayed performance that the Academy often recognizes, and the eccentricity of Viggo Mortensen in Captain Fantastic, who had a really loud campaign. Dev Patel, finally, could shake things up if voters acknowledge that he is Lion's true lead.


Octavia Spencer in Hidden Figures

Best Supporting Actress


The most secure line-up of them all, it seems. There's no breaking the quintet of Viola Davis, Michelle Williams, Naomi Harris, Nicole Kidman, and Octavia Spencer. The only real thunder-stealer might be Janelle Monáe, who could bump out her Hidden Figures co-star Spencer. But I think Minnie Jackson is sitting pretty safe for a second nomination.


Michael Shannon and Aaron Taylor-Johnson in Nocturnal Animals

Best Supporting Actor


Here's the big question of the day: what to make of Aaron Taylor-Johnson? His Golden Globe win made a jaw-dropper of an upset, and then the BAFTA nomination days later turned a perceived joke into a real threat. But how are voters putting him over co-star Michael Shannon? One has to note that the last time the Golden Globe winner in this category did not go on to earn an Oscar nomination was Richard Attenborough in 1968.


His presence doesn't actually change much in the line-up, since if he's in, then Shannon's probably out. Breathe easy, Mahershala Ali, Jeff Bridges, Dev Patel, and Hugh Grant.

But let's get on with it!

Final Oscar Predictions:


*new or moved

Best Picture:
Arrival
Fences
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures*  
La La Land
Lion
Manchester By the Sea
Moonlight
 

What about: 20th Century Women, Hacksaw Ridge, Jackie*, Loving, Nocturnal Animals, Silence, Toni Erdmann


Best Director
Damian Chazelle, La La Land
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water*
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

What about: Maren Ade, Toni Erdmann; Garth Davis, Lion*; Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals; Pablo Larraín, Jackie*, Jeff Nichols, Loving; Martin Scorsese, Silence; Denzel Washington, Fences, Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge

Best Actress
Amy Adams, Arrival
Isabelle Huppert, Elle*
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

What about: Annette Bening, 20th Century Women; Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane*; Ruth Negga, Loving*

Falling off: Rachel Weisz, Denial*

Best Actor
Casey Affleck, Manchester By the Sea 
Joel Edgerton, Loving
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge 
Ryan Gosling, La La Land 
Denzel Washington, Fences

What about: Adam Driver, Paterson; Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals, Tom Hanks, Sully; Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic*; Dev Patel, Lion

Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

What about: Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women; Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures*, Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Dev Patel, Lion
Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals*

What about: Ben Foster, Hell or High Water*, Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea*;  Trevonte Rhodes, Moonlight, Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals*


Adapted Screenplay
Arrival
Fences
Lion*
Moonlight
Nocturnal Animals

What about: Elle, Hidden Figures, Love and Friendship*, Loving*

 Original Screenplay
Hell or High Water
Jackie
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
20th Century Women 

What about: The Lobster, Toni Erdmann

 Falling off: Miss Sloane

Best Documentary
13th
Gleason
I am Not Your Negro  
OJ: Made in America*
Weiner

Also shortlisted: Cameraperson, Command and Control, The Eagle Huntress, Fire at Sea*,  Hooligan Sparrow, The Ivory Game, Life, Animated, Tower, The Witness, Zero Days

Best Foreign Language Film
Land of Mine (Denmark)
A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
The Salesman (Iran)
Tanna (Australia)
Toni Erdmann (Germany)

Also shortlisted: It's Only the End of the World (Canada), The King's Choice (Norway), My Life as a Courgette (Switzerland), Paradise (Russia)

Best Animated Film
Finding Dory
Kubo and the TwoStrings
Moana
The Red Turtle
Zootopia

What about: My Life as a Courgette, The Little Prince


Best Film Editing
Arrival
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Lion*
Moonlight

What about: Manchester by the Sea*, Silence, Sully, Jackie, Star Wars: Rogue One

Best Cinematography
Arrival
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Nocturnal Animals
Silence

What about: Hail, Caesar!,  Jackie, Lion*

Falling off: Café Society*

Best Score
Jackie
Hidden Figures*
La La Land
Lion*
Nocturnal Animals*

What about: Moonlight*, Silence*, Finding Dory*, Moana*

Best Song
La La Land, “City of Stars”
Loving, "Loving"
Moana, “How Far I'll Go”
Sing Street, “Drive It Like You Stole It”
Zootopia, "Try Everything"*

What about: Loving, "Loving"*,  La La Land (“Audition - Those Who Dream”), Wiener-Dog (“The Ballad of Wiener-Dog”), "Can't Stop this Feeling", Trolls; Hidden Figures ("Runnin'")*; Hidden Figures, "I See a Victory"*; Miss Sharon Jones!, “I’m Still Here”*

Best Costumes
Florence Foster Jenkins
Hidden Figures*
Jackie
La La Land
Silence

What about: Birth of a Nation, Café Society, The Dressmaker, Fences, Hail, Caesar!, Love & Friendship*

Best Production Design
Arrival
The BFG
Jackie
La La Land
Silence

What about: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Florence Foster Jenkins, Hail, Caesar!, Love and Friendship,  A Monster Calls, Passengers


Best Hair and Make-Up
Deadpool
Hail, Caesar!
Suicide Squad 


Also shortlisted: The Dressmaker*, Florence Foster Jenkins*, A Man Called Ove*, Star Trek Beyond* 

Best Sound Mixing
Arrival
Deadpool
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Silence 

 Best Sound Editing
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
The Jungle Book
 
Best Visual Effects
Arrival
The BFG
Deepwater Horizon
The Jungle Book
Star Wars: Rogue One

Also shortlisted: Captain America, Doctor Strange, Fantastic Beasts..., Kubo and the Two Strings, Passengers





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