SAG Awards Tonight: Will Win/Should Win

Trevonte Rhodes and André Holland in Moonlight.
Elevation Pictures
The Oscar race for Best Picture is almost a done deal at this point following last night's La La Land win at the Producer's Guild of America Awards. While a PGA isn't the surest sign of Oscar victory (The Big Short won last year), it shows that this season's frontrunner plays well on the only other awards body that uses the same ranked preference ballot that the Academy employs for Best Picture. If someone wants to shake things up, it's now or never.

But La La Land can't be the big winner at tonight's Screen Actors Guild awards because it isn't nominated for the top prize. That omission for Outstanding Cast is the only penny on the rails for the La La Land train, since the actors are the biggest branch with the Academy and the only other film to win Best Picture without netting a nomination for ensemble at the SAGs is Braveheart all the way back in 1996. So goes the debate: is La La Land really just a two-hander between SAG nominees Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling?

Either way, tonight's the night for either Moonlight or Manchester by the Sea to gain any hope of pulling an upset on Oscar night. As the only two films with any consistency in showing up alongside La La Land across the board, they could win over the actors and take the road to an upset victory at the Oscars à la Crash. Manchester might have an edge with four nominations to Moonlight's three, but I think Moonlight will take it given that it has a wider range of performances who work in sync to create something magical. Manchester is more of a showpiece for Casey Affleck with an outstanding few scenes for Michelle Williams, Gretchen Mol, and Lucas Hedges. Hidden Figures is a wild card, though, since it boasts a fun, spunky cast and is probably the film with the widest appeal for the very large SAG membership.

On the other hand, La La Land's Emma Stone has tonight to keep her lead on fellow Oscar nominee Isabelle Huppert, who isn't up at the SAGs. If Natalie Portman's still in the game, we'll know tonight, but given that SAG nominees Emily Blunt and Amy Adams aren't going to the Oscars this year. But Idris Elba won last year without an Oscar nom, so it would be fun to see Adams get a conciliation prize for the snub heard around the world.

A quick look at who will win/should win tonight:

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble Cast in a Motion Picture:
Captain Fantastic - Annalise Basso, Shree Crooks, Ann Dowd, Kathryn Hahn, Nicholas Hamilton, Samantha Isler, Frank Langella, George MacKay, Erin Moriarty, Viggo Mortensen, Missi Pyle, Charlie Shotwell, Steve Zahn
Fences - Jovan Adepo, Viola Davis, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Russell Hornsby, Saniyya Sidney, Denzel Washington, Mykelti Williamson
Hidden Figures - Mahershala Ali, Kevin Costner, Kirsten Dunst, Taraji P. Henson, Aldis Hodge, Janelle Monáe, Jim Parsons, Glen Powell, Octavia Spencer
Manchester by the Sea - Casey Affleck, Matthew Broderick, Kyle Chandler, Lucas Hedges, Gretchen Mol, Michelle Williams
Moonlight - Mahershala Ali, Naomie Harris, André Holland, Jharrel Jerome, Janelle Monáe, Trevante Rhodes, Ashton Sanders

Will win: Moonlight
Should win: Moonlight
Shoulda been nominated: Jackie, Nocturnal Animals, Hell or High Water, Love & Friendship

Outstanding Performance by an Female Actor in a Lead Role:
Amy Adams, Arrival
Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

Will win: Emma Stone
Should win: Natalie Portman (sorry, Meryl)
Shoulda been nominated: Isabelle Huppert (Elle), Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Lead Role:
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences

Will win: Casey Affleck
Should win: Ryan Gosling
Shoulda been nominated: Peter Simonischek (Toni Erdmann, but that never would have happened)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a 'Supporting' Role:
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Will win: Viola Davis
Should win: Nicole Kidman
Shoulda been nominated: Dakota Johnson (A Bigger Splash), Helen Mirren (Eye in the Sky)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role:
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea 
Dev Patel, Lion

Will win: Mahershala Ali
Should win: Jeff Bridges
Shoulda been nominated: Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals), Tom Wilkinson (Denial)

What are your picks and predictions for tonight's show?