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Ryan Gosling in Oscar's next Best Picture winner, La La Land |
Politics might influence someone to pop a screener in the
DVD player, but whatever happens from there is up to chance. Some people might
watch The Salesman since director
Asghar Farhadi drew considerable attention when he announced that he would not
be able to attend the Oscars due to the travel ban, but the film was already a
nominee and a Cannes award winner when the news of the ban came into effect. It’s
frankly among the weaker of the foreign nominees, especially if one brings to
it expectations set by his Oscar winning masterpiece A Separation. A few anti-Trump votes might help, but that’s
probably it: a few votes.
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The Salesman. Elevation Pictures |
There are many think pieces, arguments, Tweets, and time
that could be better spent elsewhere that make arguments why film X, Y, or Z is
the film audiences need right now. Moonlight
is the cure to #OscarsSoWhite, The
Salesman is a “screw you!” to Donald Trump, Lion is a timely portrait of love that crosses borders, Hidden Figures proves that women and
people of colour can rally audiences, and so on. All these claims are fair, but
there’s a lot more to all these nominees than basic click-baiting hot takes.
They’re all worthy nominees (except Hacksaw
Ridge) and could have won in any other year.
But the thing that moviegoers, and by extension voters, need
right now is another day of sun.
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Emma Stone in La La Land. Dale Robinette, courtesy eOne Films |
Expect a near-sweep for La
La Land with Best Picture, Best Director for Damien Chazelle, and numerous
technical awards very likely. Ditto the awards for score and song, which should
be no-brainers in any Oscar pool.
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Isabelle Huppert as Michèle in Elle. Guy Ferrandis/ SBS Productions, Courtesy of Sony Pictures Classics |
Best Actress favourite Emma Stone will probably add to the La La Land tally, but her category is the
one big race of the night. It’s the first real match-up between Stone and wild
card, critical favourite, and surprise Golden Globe winner Isabelle Huppert for
Elle. Huppert, an industry veteran,
has an impressive body of challenging work playing ice queens in edgy art films
that generally don’t attract a wide enough of an audience to net an Oscar
nomination. Kudos to voters and the campaign team at Sony Pictures Classics for
getting a performance as wild, brave, and twisted as Huppert’s through award season.
Huppert might have missed the SAG nominations, which helped Stone scoop a
victory, and wasn’t eligible at the BAFTAs due to Elle’s release date, which gave Stone another win. The only time
they faced off, though, was at the Critics’ Choice Awards where the winner was…
Natalie Portman for Jackie.
Huppert has never been nominated and Elle might, in a way, be for her what Michael Clayton was to Tilda Swinton: a rare chance to honour an
industry vanguard for doing the kind of challenging work for which she should
be lauded in a film that, somehow, broke through.
However, when it comes to Best Actress, I’ll just throw my
hands up in the air and wave the flag for Natalie Portman.
In the other lead race, La
La Land’s Ryan Gosling deserves to add to the film’s haul, but,
unfortunately, his natural charm makes his soulful performance as jazz pianist Sebastian
seem easy. He should win, but Casey Affleck’s withdrawn—and, frankly,
boring—performance in Manchester by the Sea has dominated the season too much to let Denzel Washington’s SAG win
derail it. Dark horse Viggo Mortensen has a win in his nomination for the
offbeat Captain Fantastic, while
Andrew Garfield’s impressive physical work in the weirdly religious and
repugnantly violent Hacksaw Ridge is the
film’s one redeeming quality.
Viola Davis will finally get her first Oscar as Best
Supporting Actress for Fences. Her
win is a bit of a backhanded compliment since she’s a leading actress working
at the top of her game in a lead role worthy of her calibre. She deserves Best
Actress and putting a performance this big and showy in Best Supporting Actress
just puts an asterisk beside her win. If Davis wins, this will be the third
year in a row in which Best Supporting Actress goes to a lead role. She has no
competition though, despite a lot of support for all these performances,
particularly Moonlight’s Naomie Harris, who have been
consistently present all season.
Best Supporting Actor sees a race between a lead performance
campaigned as supporting and a true supporting performance as Lion lead Dev Patel squares off with Moonlight’s Mahershala Ali. The win
could go either way, but given the overwhelming support for Moonlight, it’s bound to win something.
The ballots are cast and it’s up to winners to get political
if they’d like the opportunity.
Whatever happens, though, Monday’s still another day of sun.
***
Without further ado, here are picks for who will win and
should win on Oscar night.
I’ve been able to see most of the nominees except Doctor Strange, Rogue One, 13 Hours (not
watching a 2.5 hour Michael Bay movie for a sound nomination--which thankfully got rescinded!) and will catch Land of Mine this weekend.
Final Oscar Predictions:
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hacksaw Ridge
★Will win: La La Land
★Should win: Since the ballot asks for a ranked ballot, mine goes: 1) Arrival 2) Hell or High Water 3) La La Land 4) Moonlight 5) Lion 6) Hidden Figures 7) Manchester by the Sea 8) Fences 9) Hacksaw Ridge
★Should have been there: Jackie, Nocturnal Animals, Love & Friendship
★Should win: Since the ballot asks for a ranked ballot, mine goes: 1) Arrival 2) Hell or High Water 3) La La Land 4) Moonlight 5) Lion 6) Hidden Figures 7) Manchester by the Sea 8) Fences 9) Hacksaw Ridge
★Should have been there: Jackie, Nocturnal Animals, Love & Friendship
Best Director
Damian Chazelle, La La Land
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
★Will win: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
★Should win: Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
★Should have been there: Pablo Larraín, Jackie; David McKenzie, Hell or High Water
★Will win: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
★Should win: Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
★Should have been there: Pablo Larraín, Jackie; David McKenzie, Hell or High Water
Best Actress
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
★Will win: Emma Stone, La La Land
★Should win: Natalie Portman, Jackie
★Should have been there: Amy Adams, Arrival; Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
★Will win: Emma Stone, La La Land
★Should win: Natalie Portman, Jackie
★Should have been there: Amy Adams, Arrival; Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
Best Actor
Casey Affleck, Manchester By the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences
★Will win: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
★Should win: Ryan Gosling, La La Land
★Should have been there: Peter Simonischek, Toni Erdmann
★Will win: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
★Should win: Ryan Gosling, La La Land
★Should have been there: Peter Simonischek, Toni Erdmann
Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
★Will win: Viola Davis, Fences
★Should win: Nicole Kidman, Lion
★Should have been there: Dakota Johnson, A Bigger Splash, Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Miss Sloane, Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
★Will win: Viola Davis, Fences
★Should win: Nicole Kidman, Lion
★Should have been there: Dakota Johnson, A Bigger Splash, Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Miss Sloane, Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
★Will win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
★Should win: Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
★Should have been there: Tom Wilkinson, Denial
★Will win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
★Should win: Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
★Should have been there: Tom Wilkinson, Denial
Adapted Screenplay
Arrival
Fences
Lion
Hidden Figures
Moonlight
★Will win: Moonlight
★Should win: Arrival
★Should have been there: Nocturnal Animals, Love & Friendship
Hidden Figures
Moonlight
★Will win: Moonlight
★Should win: Arrival
★Should have been there: Nocturnal Animals, Love & Friendship
Original Screenplay
Manchester by the Sea
20th Century Women
20th Century Women
★Will win: Manchester by the Sea
★Should win: Hell or High Water
★Should have been there: Jackie, Eye in the Sky
Best Documentary
★Will win: OJ: Made in America
★Should win: I am Not Your Negro
★Should have been there: Miss Sharon Jones!, Cameraperson
-->Read more on the Oscar doc race at POV!
Best Foreign Language Film
Land of Mine (Denmark)A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
The Salesman (Iran)
Tanna (Australia)
Toni Erdmann (Germany)
★Will win: Toni Erdmann
★Should win: Tanna
★Should have been there: Sieranevada (Romania), Elle (France)
★Will win: Toni Erdmann
★Should win: Tanna
★Should have been there: Sieranevada (Romania), Elle (France)
Best Animated Film
Moana
My Life as a Courgette
My Life as a Courgette
The Red Turtle
Zootopia
Zootopia
★Will win: Zootopia
★Should win: Kubo and the Two Strings
★Should have been there: The Little Prince
Best Film Editing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight
★Will win: La La Land
★Should win: Arrival
★Should have been there: Jackie
★Will win: La La Land
★Should win: Arrival
★Should have been there: Jackie
Best Cinematography
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence
★Will win: La La Land
★Should win: Arrival
★Should have been there: Jackie, Nocturnal Animals, Hell or High Water
Moonlight
Silence
★Will win: La La Land
★Should win: Arrival
★Should have been there: Jackie, Nocturnal Animals, Hell or High Water
Best Score
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers
★Will win: La La Land
★Should win: Jackie
★Should have been there: Arrival, Nocturnal Animals
Moonlight
Passengers
★Will win: La La Land
★Should win: Jackie
★Should have been there: Arrival, Nocturnal Animals
Best Song
Jim: The James Foley Story, "The Empty Chair"
La La Land, “City of Stars”
La La Land, “Audition - Fools Who Dream”
La La Land, “City of Stars”
La La Land, “Audition - Fools Who Dream”
Moana, “How Far I'll Go”
Trolls, "Can't Stop this Feeling"
★Will win: "City of Stars"
★Should win: "City of Stars"
★Should have been there: "The Ballad of Wiener-Dog," Wiener-Dog; "Drive It Like You Stole It," Sing Street (and pretty much any other song that was better than the pandering crap from Trolls)
★Will win: "City of Stars"
★Should win: "City of Stars"
★Should have been there: "The Ballad of Wiener-Dog," Wiener-Dog; "Drive It Like You Stole It," Sing Street (and pretty much any other song that was better than the pandering crap from Trolls)
Best Costumes
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land
★Will win: Jackie
★Should win: Jackie
★Should have been there: Love & Friendship
★Will win: Jackie
★Should win: Jackie
★Should have been there: Love & Friendship
Best Production Design
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
La La Land
Passengers
★Will win: Arrival
★Should win: Arrival
★Should have been there: Jackie
★Will win: Arrival
★Should win: Arrival
★Should have been there: Jackie
Best Hair and Make-Up
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad
★Will win: Suicide Squad
★Should win: None, honestly.
★Should have been there: Hacksaw Ridge, Florence Foster Jenkins, Hail Caesar!
Best Sound Mixing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
★Will win: La La Land
★Should win: Arrival
★Should have been there: Silence
Best Sound Editing
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully
★Will win: Arrival
★Should win: Arrival
★Should have been there: Hell or High Water
Best Visual Effects
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
★Will win: The Jungle Book
★Should win: Kubo and the Two Strings
★Should have been there: Arrival, A Monster Calls
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
★Will win: The Jungle Book
★Should win: Kubo and the Two Strings
★Should have been there: Arrival, A Monster Calls
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper
★Will win: Piper
★Should win: Blind Vaysha
Best Live Action Short
Ennemis Interieurs
Le femme et le TGV
Silent Nights
Sing
Timecode
★Will win: La femme et le TGV
★Should win: La femme et le TGV
Best Documentary (Short Subject)
Extremis
4.1 Miles
Joe's Violin
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets
★Will win: The White Helmets
★Should win: White Helmets