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| Clockwise from top left: The Shape of Water, Lady Bird, Dunkirk, The Post, Darkest Hour, I, Tonya |
Donald Tr*mp tweeted that he plans to announce "THE MOST DISHONEST
& CORRUPT MEDIA AWARDS OF THE YEAR" [his caps] on Monday, but I don’t think he got the
memo that the Golden Globes are actually Sunday night. Yes, it’s been a year
since Meryl Streep famously slammed the First Idiot at Hollywood’s second
biggest award show and there could be round two of Meryl vs. Trump. It’s really fun, and odd, to see a voting body as openly corrupt as the
Hollywood Foreign Press Association become a beacon for free speech and sanity,
but in an award season where anything goes and presumably anybody could win,
Sunday’s Golden Globes are a must see.
It’s still very early in the race to feel confident about any of the nominees, although The Florida Project’s Willem Dafoe might be the only contender I’m comfortable calling a sure thing. At this point, only the critics’ groups have weighed in and those prizes can’t really be taken as anything other than advocacy points with key groups (ex: New York or LA) being reliable barometers. Sure, Laurie Metcalf won Best Supporting Actress from both Phoenix film critics’ groups, but how much does that actually mean? The critics’ groups are so early, so similar, and so numerous that they basically equal white noise.
There are always films and contenders that struggle to hold their
frontrunner statuses despite being critical darlings. The echo chamber needs its
first test beyond a bunch of critics sitting in a room debating winners and
optics. Let’s hope something pulls a surprise like Aaron Taylor-Johnson did
last year, if only so we stop taking award season so seriously.
Here’s a preview of who could win and should win at the
Globes.
Best Film – Drama
The nominees: Call Me By Your Name, Dunkirk, The Post, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
This one could really go any of four ways. I might count out
Call Me By Your Name since it missed director
and screenplay, while the other nominees dominated the field. The Shape of Water, The Post, and Three
Billboards all nabbed nominations in every category in which they were a
contender. (One could argue for an additional supporting nomination here or
there, however.) While Dunkirk missed
nominations for screenplay and supporting actor (Mark Rylance and Tom Hardy are
fair contenders), it’s the kind of film that plays well with the Globes with
its big screen escapism and wide appeal. The
Post is prototypically “Globey” with its A-list cast, director, and timely
subject matter, but the Globes are also one of the few groups that didn’t go for Spotlight two years ago. It’s curious to see if they go for its
showier successor. The Shape of Water
checks all the boxes with its artful escapism and award-calibre performances,
and the Globes might agree since it leads the overall nomination tally. I think
Shape is the winner with Dunkirk as the potential spoiler.
Will win: The Shape of
Water
I’d vote for: The Post
Should have been there: Wonderstruck,
but I can’t disagree with this group of nominees.
Best Film – “Comedy” or Musical
Get Out honestly
isn’t a comedy and doesn’t do itself any favours by being framed as such
despite holding up as a great film. Reviews for The
Greatest Showman are generally bad across the board, while the nomination
for The Disaster Artist probably
indicates a strong show of support for James Franco. I’m personally rooting for
I, Tonya since it’s a darkly funny,
bold, and challenging flick with great performances, but I think Greta Gerwig’s
whimsically sweet Lady Bird will
prevail here since, like The Shape of
Water, it leads the field.
Will win: Lady Bird
I’d vote for: I, Tonya
Best Actress – Drama
The nominees: Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game; Sally Hawkins, The
Shape of Water; Frances McDormand, Three
Billboards; Meryl Streep, The Post;
Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World
It would really shake things up if Williams or Chastain
pulled a surprise win, but I think this showdown between frontrunners Frances
McDormand and Sally Hawkins will indicate who the Oscar frontrunner might be. I
think it could go either way, but if they love Billboards, they must really love McDormand’s performance. Naturally, I’m rooting for Meryl.
Will win: Frances McDormand
I’d vote for: Meryl Streep
Should have been there: Salma Hayek, Beatriz at Dinner (but I don’t know why they campaigned this film
as a drama)
Best Actor – Drama
The nominees: Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name; Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread; Tom Hanks, The
Post; Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour; Denzel
Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
This season is a two-way race for Best Actor. It’s Oldman
versus Chalamet, and both performances are worthy of the gold. They’re just so
different in style, however, so it’s really a question of taste. Oldman’s
performance generally conforms to the broader strokes the HFPA favours, while
his veteran status might help swing a win. Daniel Day-Lewis is the wild card
for his reportedly final performance, while Hanks and Washington are there for
the food and, more likely, booze.
Will win: Gary Oldman, Darkest
Hour?
I’d vote for: Oldman
Should have been there: Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (yes, I know they campaigned it as a “comedy”)
Best Actress – “Comedy” or Musical
The nominees: Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul; Helen Mirren, The Leisure Seeker; Margot Robbie, I, Tonya; Saoirse Ronan, Lady
Bird; Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes
Margot Robbie should clobber the competition like a renegade
assailant on a rival skater. She simply has the most challenging, complex, and
surprising performance of the year. I really think she could pull an upset here
and change the tide on the Best Actress race--and, let's face it, the trashy Globes are the "Tonya" to classy Oscar's "Nancy."
However, Saoirse Ronan has the edge for her beautifully natural and down to earth performance in Lady Bird. She also has a weird overdue sense to her body of work given that she's marking her ten-year nominee anniversary for her breakthrough work in Atonement. If Ronan loses, switch your Best Film vote to Get Out.
However, Saoirse Ronan has the edge for her beautifully natural and down to earth performance in Lady Bird. She also has a weird overdue sense to her body of work given that she's marking her ten-year nominee anniversary for her breakthrough work in Atonement. If Ronan loses, switch your Best Film vote to Get Out.
Will win: Saoirse Ronan, Lady
Bird
I’d vote for: Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Should have been there: I would have loved for Sandra Oh to be here for Catfight.
Should have been there: I would have loved for Sandra Oh to be here for Catfight.
Best Actor – “Comedy”
or Musical
The nominees: Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes; Ansel Elgort, Baby Driver; James Franco, The
Disaster Artist; Hugh Jackman, The
Greatest Showman; Daniel Kaluuya, Get
Out
James Franco for the win? As Tommy Wiseau? That is hilarious
and will inevitably be a highlight of the boozy, boozy Globes.
Will win: James Franco, The
Disaster Artist
I’d vote for: Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes?
Should have been there: Ben Stiller, Brad’s Status
Best Supporting Actress
The nominees: Mary J. Blige, Mudbound; Hong Chau, Downsizing;
Allison Janney, I, Tonya; Laurie Metcalf,
Lady Bird; Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
I really like Octavia Spencer in The Shape of Water and think that Hong Chau's hilarious and gutsy performance is the only reason to
see Downsizing, but I don't think either will take this prize. (And I honestly have
no idea why everyone’s singling out Mary J. Blige in a film filled with
stronger performances.) This race is probably the toughest call of the night with Laurie
Metcalf and Allison Janney dividing critics and audiences into two passionate
teams. (In the OFCS vote, Metcalf beat Janney by a single vote.) While Metcalf
is the early critical favourite, I think this could be a case where the buzz
from the festival circuit outweighs the noise of the critics’ award. I, Tonya exploded at TIFF and found
itself in the Oscar race in large part due to Janney’s scene-stealing
performance. Award season is often all about stamina and Janney, a veteran
character actress who has amassed six Globe nominations and yet no wins while
elevating an impressive roster of films and TV shows, is simply long overdue.
It’s also the best performance here by a mile.
Will win: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
I’d vote for: Janney
Should have been there: Rosamund Pike, Hostiles
Best Supporting Actor
The nominees: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project; Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name; Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water; Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World; Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards
Early favourite Willem Dafoe feels like the only consensus
pick across the board, but Christopher Plummer is a wild card. He is
exceptional in his eleventh-hour performance replacing Kevin Spacey in All the Money in the World and the story
behind his strong performances offers the kind of nugget that could swing
enough votes to woo a relatively small voting body. Support for the other three
certainly bodes well for their nominated films.
Will win: Willem Dafoe, The
Florida Project
I’d vote for: Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Should have been there: Nahuel Perez Biscayart sadly isn't even discussed as a contender this season for BPM, and I might have swapped Rockwell for his Billboards co-star Woody Harrelson.
Best Director
The nominees: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water; Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards; Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk; Ridley Scott, All
the Money in the World; Steven Spielberg, The Post
Another wild card. Could Nolan pull an upset here, or will
the Globes match their pick for Best Film with Best Director? They don’t
usually split…
Will win: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
I’d vote for: Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Should have been there: Todd Haynes, Wonderstruck
Best Screenplay
The nominees: Lady
Bird, Molly’s Game, The Post, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards
The talky and funny Billboards
has to be the favourite here.
Will win: Three
Billboards
I’d vote for: The Post
(or Billboards)
Should have been there: Call
Me By Your Name
Best Foreign Language Film
The nominees: A
Fantastic Woman (Chile), First They
Killed My Father (Cambodia), In the Fade (Germany), Loveless
(Russia), The Square (Sweden)
Who knows? Star pedigree might bode well for Angelina Jolie’s
First They Killed My Father. As the
one nominee here that didn’t make the Oscar shortlist, it might be a nice consolation
prize.
Will win: The Square?
I’d vote for: First
They Killed My Father
Should have been there: Hochelaga, Racer and the Jailbird
Should have been there: Hochelaga, Racer and the Jailbird
Best Animated Film
The nominees: The Boss
Baby, The Breadwinner, Coco, Despicable Me 3 (“champagne lunch”), The LEGO Batman Movie
Coco, because
Disney/Pixar and popularity. I can't complain about their monopoly because I pick Meryl Streep every year.
Will win: Coco
I’d vote for: The Breadwinner
Should have been there: Window
Horses
Best Score
The nominees: Dunkirk,
Phantom Thread, The Post, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards
Tough call between The
Shape of Water and Dunkirk. This
award could be an early indicator of Best Film!
Will win: The Shape of
Water
I’d vote for: Dunkirk (but
I really love the score for The Shape of
Water)
Should have been there: Wonderstruck, Hostiles
Best Song
The nominees: “Home” from Ferdinand, “Mighty River” from Mudbound, “Remember Me” from Coco, “The Star” from The Star, “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman
I don’t particularly like any of these songs, to be honest,
but I assume that either the boring ballad “Remember Me” will ride the Coco wave or that The Greatest Showman has to win something out of its three nominations. The song is the best of the
nominees and the only one that isn’t completely forgettable. Let's hope the Academy is less tone deaf.
Will win: “This is Me”
I’d vote for: “This is Me”
Should have been there: “Mystery of Love” from Call Me By Your Name
