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| Billboards, Lady Bird, Darkest Hour, The Post, The Shape of Water, and I, Tonya |
For every ‘yup’ there’s a ‘but.’ This year’s Best Picture
race is an unlikely field. Some major stat looks to be broken since all the
contenders have a bit of baggage that decreases the odds of a confident win. Get
ready for the Oscars to break the Internet on Sunday night! Awards season ends
its six-month grind of toxic mudslinging on March 4th when either Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
or The Shape of Water takes Best
Picture. It’s a tight race with Get Out,
Dunkirk, and Lady Bird having adoring fans, and after last year’s crazy finale,
the memory of #OscarsSoWhite, the shadow of Harvey Weinstein, the stench of
Donald Trump, and the energy of #TimesUp, it feels as if there are many factors
percolating with the usual stats and precursors. With an open mind, let’s look
at who will win and should win in the top categories!
Best Picture:
The nominees: Call Me By Your Name, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, Phantom Thread, The Post, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Ifs and buts are all over this category. Billboards doesn’t have that director
nomination. (The last time a film won without that was Argo.) Shape of Water
doesn’t have that SAG Ensemble nom. (The only film to win without that? Braveheart.) Get Out and Lady Bird
have no below the line nominations and weren’t BAFTA Best Picture nominees.
(The last time a Best Picture Oscar winner didn’t have a BAFTA nomination for
Best Picture was Million Dollar Baby,
and unlike Get Out and Lady Bird, it opened at the last second
and didn’t send screeners.) Dunkirk
doesn’t have nominations for acting or writing. (Last film to do manage that?
1932’s Grand Hotel.) Darkest Hour and The Post are missing directing and writing. (Also: Grand Hotel.) Phantom Thread isn’t up for Best Screenplay and skipped the
festivals. (Beat that, Titanic.)
My attitude, however, is that we had to press the reset
button once the preferential ballot and flexible 5-10 nominations came into
play with the 2011 Oscars. You also can’t compare contemporary awards season
against what won in 1932. I think Billboards
has this one because the film is widely praised for its sharp writing and
brilliant acting. Director Martin McDonagh was not nominated, but unlike Ben
Affleck, he wasn’t winning Best Director even the film when was winning the top
prize at events like the Golden Globes, SAG Awards and BAFTAs. The director
prizes are all going to del Toro for The
Shape of Water and, since the preferential ballot began, there’s been an
uptick in Best Picture/Best Director splits with the showier, more visual
effects driven productions taking the director prize with the less showy films nabbing
the top gong. (See: Spotlight and The Revenant, Argo and Life of Pi, 12 Years a Slave and Gravity.) Add to this the surprise
People’s Choice Award win for Billboards at
TIFF over The Shape of Water, which
was widely tipped as the favourite, along with the recent appearances of real billboards
mimicking the film’s call-out to authority, and there is no denying that McDonagh’s
dark comedy taps into an anxiety within the cultural consciousness unlike the
other nominees. Don’t believe the Internet backlash. That’s just noise.
The Post doesn’t
have a chance with only two nominations. But, heck, the last Best Picture to
win only two Oscars was newsroom pic Spotlight.
Go, Meryl!
«Will win: Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
«I’d vote for: Since
the preferential ballot asks for ranked preferences, my picks would go:
1) The Post 2) Dunkirk 3) The Shape of Water 4) Three Billboards 5) Call Me By Your Name 6) Lady Bird 7) Darkest Hour 8) Get Out 9) Phantom Thread.
1) The Post 2) Dunkirk 3) The Shape of Water 4) Three Billboards 5) Call Me By Your Name 6) Lady Bird 7) Darkest Hour 8) Get Out 9) Phantom Thread.
Best Director:
The nominees: Christopher
Nolan, Dunkirk; Jordan Peele, Get Out; Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird; Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread; Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
For the reasons listed above, I think Guillermo del Toro
will win for his richly layered and cinematically intoxicating fairy tale. I’m
personally rooting for dark horse Christopher Nolan, who displayed astonishing
technical and artistic mastery with the most ambitious and challenging
production of the five. Jordan Peele and Greta Gerwig made terrific films and
while I think both Get Out and Lady Bird are strongest for their
writing, the directors will certainly be back in this category in years to
come.
«Will win: Guillermo
del Toro, The Shape of Water
«I’d vote for:
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
«Should have been there:
Todd Haynes, Wonderstruck; Steven
Spielberg, The Post; Agnès Varda and
JR, Faces Places
The acting categories seem pretty much locked. The four frontrunners—Oldman,
McDormand, Rockwell and Janney—collectively swept the major awards and will add
Oscars to their Golden Globes, SAGs, Critics Choice Awards, and BAFTAs.
Best Actor:
The nominees: Timothée
Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name;
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out; Daniel
Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread; Gary
Oldman, Darkest Hour; Denzel
Washington, That Terrible John Grisham-y
Movie
Darkest Hour is
Gary Oldman and he deserves to win for his transformative showstopper of a
performance that disappears underneath gobs of make-up. He’s long overdue, and
criminally underappreciated given that this is only his second nomination.
Those factors make for stiff hurdles for his only real competitor, Timothée
Chalamet, who could have won this any other year for his subtle and
devastatingly bittersweet work in Call Me
By Your Name.
«Will win: Gary
Oldman, Darkest Hour
«I’d vote for: Oldman
«Should have been there:
Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying; Tom
Hanks, The Post
Best Actress:
The nominees: Sally
Hawkins, The Shape of Water; Frances
McDormand, Three Billboards outside
Ebbing, Missouri; Margot Robbie, I,Tonya; Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird; Meryl
Streep, The Post
We all know how this is going down. Frances McDormand’s
savagely funny work in Billboards is
leading the film to win Best Picture. If she loses, then maybe it’s to Sally
Hawkins who could tip Shape to win
with her magical and musical performance as a mute cleaner who fucks a fish.
Any of these performances, like Chalamet, could have won any other year though.
Saoirse Ronan? So funny and natural in Lady
Bird! Margot Robbie? So brilliant and brave in I, Tonya – so good in fact, that in the history of her 21
nominations, this would only be the second time that I wouldn’t vote for the
great Meryl Streep. Which says a lot about Robbie’s work, since Katherine
Graham is easily top tier Streep.
«Will win: Frances
McDormand, Three Billboards
«I’d vote for: Margot
Robbie, I, Tonya
«Should have been there:
Cate Blanchett, Manifesto
Best Supporting Actor:
The nominees: Willem
Dafoe, The Florida Project; Woody
Harrelson, Three Billboards outside
Ebbing, Missouri; Richard Jenkins, The
Shape of Water; Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World; Sam Rockwell, Three
Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Dafoe was the bigger critical favourite, but Rockwell walloped
him in the awards that count. While Rockwell’s character has been the source of
the most ire against Billboards—namely,
criticism that his hotheaded racist cop is redeemed in the end—the backlash isn’t
really fair. Dixon isn’t redeemed at the end. He simply realizes that he needs
to change, and don’t we all need to believe that is possible?
«Will win: Sam
Rockwell, Three Billboards outside
Ebbing, Missouri
«I’d vote for: Christopher
Plummer, All the Money in the World
«Should have been there:
Nahuel Pérez Biscayart, BPM (Beats Per
Minute); Armie Hammer, Call Me By
Your Name
Best Supporting Actress:
The nominees: Mary
J. Blige, Mudbound; Allison Janney, I, Tonya; Lesley Manville, Phantom
Thread; Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird; Octavia
Spencer, The Shape of Water
Rarely have I sat through a festival with the experience of
seeing a performance explode as an Oscar favourite. That performance was
Allison Janney in I, Tonya. Everyone
went in to see a contender in Margot Robbie, and while she delivered, the buzz
from the world premiere and after was for Janney. She is acerbically funny as
the monstrous mother of Tonya Harding, but there’s a subtle pain to her
performance that elevates it. Just look at the jealous and resentment with
which she views her own daughter. LaVona hates Tonya for getting the attention her
mother her, which feeds their family’s cycle of anger and violence. Some critics
say Laurie Metcalf will win here, but I think the show of support for Metcalf
in the critics’ prizes phase, while warranted, was more advocacy than anything
else. Manville’s been gaining critical support for her brilliantly restrained
work in Phantom Thread, which a lot
of critics couldn’t see in early stages, and might be taking some votes away
from Metcalf. Octavia Spencer is great, but this performance demands repeat
viewing to appreciate, while Blige’s nomination is her award. There’s no
beating Janney. She’s a respected character actress who has worked in a ton of
movies (The Hours, American Beauty, The
Help, Juno) and her effort on the
campaign trail has been widely applauded to boot. 6.0!
«Will win: Allison
Janney, I, Tonya
«I’d vote for: Janney
«Should have been there:
Rosamund Pike, Hostiles
And onto the rest!
Best Documentary
Strong Island
«Will win: Last Men in Aleppo
«I’d vote for: Faces Places
Best Foreign Language Film
Chile - A Fantastic Woman
Hungary – On Body and Soul
Lebanon - The Insult
Russia - Loveless
Sweden - The Square
Hungary – On Body and Soul
Lebanon - The Insult
Russia - Loveless
Sweden - The Square
«Will win: The Insult
«I’d vote for: On Body and Soul
«Should have been there: First They Killed My Father
Best Animated Film
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent
«Will win: Coco
«I’d vote for: The Breadwinner
«Should have been there: Window Horses
Best Adapted Screenplay
Call Me By Your Name – James Ivory
The Disaster Artist - Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber
Logan - Scott Frank, James Mangold, Michael Green
The Disaster Artist - Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber
Logan - Scott Frank, James Mangold, Michael Green
Molly's Game - Aaron Sorkin
Mudbound – Dee Rees, Virgil Williams
«Will win: Call Me By Your Name
«I’d vote for: Call Me By Your Name
«Should have been there: Wonderstruck
Best Original Screenplay
The Big Sick - Kumail Nanjali and Emily Gordon
Get Out - Jordan Peele
Get Out - Jordan Peele
Lady Bird - Greta Gerwig
The Shape of Water - Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri - Martin McDonagh
«Will win: Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
«I’d vote for: Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
«Should have been there: The Post; I, Tonya
Best Cinematography
Dunkirk
Darkest Hour
Mudbound
Mudbound
The Shape of Water
«Will win: Blade Runner
«I’d vote for: Blade Runner
«Should have been there: Wonderstruck
Best Film Editing
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
«Will win: Dunkirk
«I’d vote for: Dunkirk
«Should have been there: Jane, The Post
Best Original Score
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
«Will win: The Shape of Water
«I’d vote for: Dunkirk
«Should have been there: Wonderstruck, Jane
Best Song
Call Me My Your Name – “The Mystery of Love”
Coco, “Remember Me”
«Will win: "This is Me"
«I’d vote for: "This is Me"
«Should have been there: "Jump" from Step; "Visions of Gideon" from Call Me By Your Name
Best Costumes
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
The Shape of Water
Victoria & Abdul
«Will win: Phantom Thread
«I’d vote for: Phantom Thread
«Should have been there: I, Tonya; The Post
Best Make-up
Darkest Hour
Victoria & Abdul
Wonder
«Will win: Darkest Hour
«I’d vote for: Darkest Hour
«Should have been there: The Shape of Water
Best Production Design
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
Darkest Hour
Darkest Hour
The Shape of Water
«Will win: The Shape of Water
«I’d vote for: Blade Runner 2049
«Should have been there: The Greatest Showman, The Post
Best Sound Mixing
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
«Will win: Dunkirk
«I’d vote for: Dunkirk
Best Sound Editing
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
«Will win: Dunkirk
«I’d vote for: Dunkirk
Best Visual Effects
Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy 2
Kong: Skull Island
Guardians of the Galaxy 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes
«Will win: Blade Runner 2049
«I’d vote for: Blade Runner 2049
«Should have been there: The Shape of Water
Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Heroin(e)
Knife Skills
Traffic Stop
The Eleven O'Clock
My Nephew Emmett
The Silent Child
Watu Wote - All of Us
Best Documentary (Short Subject)
Edith+EddieHeaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Heroin(e)
Knife Skills
Traffic Stop
«Will win: Edith+Eddie
«I’d vote for: Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Best Live Action Short
DeKalb ElementaryThe Eleven O'Clock
My Nephew Emmett
The Silent Child
Watu Wote - All of Us
«Will win: My Nephew Emmett
«I’d vote for: My Nephew Emmett
Garden Party
Lou
Negative Space
Revolting Rhymes
Best Animated Short
Dear BasketballGarden Party
Lou
Negative Space
Revolting Rhymes
«Will win: Revolting Rhymes
«I’d vote for: Negative Space
