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| Clockwise: Roma, The Favourite, BlacKkKlansman, A Star is Born, First Man, If Beale Street Could Talk |
Following a few weeks of catch-up, I’m mostly up to speed heading into award season. At this point in the year, my two favourite films are the Mr. Rogers documentary about the value of kindness and the one where Nicole Kidman mercilessly beats the shit out of everyone. Amazing films, Won’t You Be My Neighbor? and Destroyer are, but they aren’t going anywhere near Best Picture. Ditto some of the year’s other best films like American Animals and Suspiria.
Like most other people, I think A Star is Born is the front-runner. (A point I made somewhat
prematurely in September and was taken to task by a few Facebook friends, but I
stand by it.) A Star is Born just has
that perfect crossover appeal between arthouse audiences and mainstream moviegoers.
Even someone who approaches it skeptically or cynically can’t help but be moved
by the power and emotion of the experience. The film has the double novelty of
being sensational debuts of Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper as a film actress and
director, respectively, and I think they both prove their merits in two
award-calibre performances. While A Star
is Born has a stronger opening act than closing one, imperfect films are no
stranger to Oscar, with movies like The
Departed and No Country for Old Men
winning even when many people thought a problematic ending could have derailed
them. It’s still early, but the film is so impeccably well done and acted I
think it’s a fair bet for Picture, Actress, Actor, Song, and (maybe) sound
mixing given that the songs were recorded live and musicals generally do well there.
On the director front, put Alfonso Cuarón out in the lead
for Roma and watch for him in Best
Cinematography as well. Cuarón takes over for his usual director of
photography, three-time Oscar winner Emanuel Lubezki, and does Chivo-level work
behind the camera. Roma is an
exquisitely shot film that makes outstanding use of space and time, and the
complexity of his compositions are such precise feats coordination that it’s
hard to imagine Cuarón being overlooked for work that makes Roma feel like a classic in the making.
If we cap Best Picture at the minimum of five contenders—or
at least assume these films are the five nominees that will also be represented
in the race for Best Director—I think the other players are Yorgos Lanthimos’s The Favourite, Damien Chazelle’s First Man, and Spike Lee’s BlackKklansman. Admittedly, The Favourite is the one that I haven’t
seen since it has yet to play Toronto, but word from festivals like Venice,
Telluride, and New York is very, very strong with special props going to Olivia
Colman (London Road) for a
tour-de-force performance, while Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone are drawing raves
as rivals competing for Queen Olivia’s affection. Backed by Fox Searchlight,
the defending distributor after The Shape
of Water, the film is in the right hands and looks to be a big break for
Lanthimos, who has built a solid reputation in the smarthouse crowd thanks to
darkly funny arthouse hits like The
Lobster and The Killing of a Sacred
Deer.
First Man,
however, is having a weird start to its theatrical run. Ongoing controversies says
that it omits the American flag during the moon landing (a flat-out lie, since
it’s featured prominently in no less than two shots) and that it’s too
conservative (which doesn’t jive with the other controversy…). The backlash and
disappointing box office for First Man
are hurdles, but I don’t think Chazelle, Ryan Gosling, and company need to
worry. First Man is an exceptionally
well-crafted and smartly-played film that offers a thoughtful, intimate
perspective on a pivotal chapter of history. It’s going to play well with many
branches, especially technical ones, so its cumulative support should outweigh
any bogus hot takes that arise this season.
BlackKkKlansman, on
the other hand, is a wild card. Spike Lee has yet to be nominated for Best
Director and BlackKkKlansman is a
return to form. It’s a wild, incendiary, and timely look at the long history of
racism in the USA that only Lee could have made. Heck, Lee’s the only one who
would have even tried to make it. It’s hard to overlook the director’s bold
hand as Klansmen proudly unite in a chorus of “America first!” cheers or as
Harry Belafonte delivers an Oscar-worthy monologue about the plight of African
Americans that resonates with passion and rage for the Black Lives Matter
movement. Lee is long overdue, even if he got an honorary award during the mess
of #OscarsSoWhite, and a win for him could be a fine combination of merit,
politics, and timing. Just imagine the acceptance speech!
Other contenders to watch:
Barry Jenkins’ ensemble drama If Beale Street Could Talk is probably the film to beat for the
SAG’s Best Ensemble prize, but expect major issues of pacing to keep it from
winning the top prize on Oscar night.
Black Panther is a
hit and a very well made film, but it’s still a comic book movie. It
was one of the ten best movies of the year in June…is it still up there now?
Crazy Rich Asians
is a mega hit and will presumably play very well with the SAG and the Golden
Globes. It also has a bit of a Devil
Wears Prada vibe as a smart summer hit with great performances and a sharp
script. It could squeak in with Michelle Yeoh in supporting and an adapted screenplay
nomination depending on how the late-breaking films pan out. Prada would have been nominated if Best
Picture had been a flexible five to ten field in 2006.
Green Book won the People's Choice at TIFF--which can only be taken with a grain of salt since voting opened online this year and there was no requirement for people to have actually seen the film in order to vote for it. (How many votes did the distributor send in?) But a new spin on the Driving Miss Daisy routine with powerhouse performances is certainly catnip for voters.
Green Book won the People's Choice at TIFF--which can only be taken with a grain of salt since voting opened online this year and there was no requirement for people to have actually seen the film in order to vote for it. (How many votes did the distributor send in?) But a new spin on the Driving Miss Daisy routine with powerhouse performances is certainly catnip for voters.
The unknown factors remaining are Mary, Queen of Scots, which is a terrific-looking battle between
Saoirse Ronan and Margot Robbie; the Ruth Bader Ginsburg biopic On the Basis of Sex, which could either
benefit or suffer from the popularity of the documentary (Felicity Jones seems miscast); and the
unpredictability of The Big Short director
Adam McKay’s Dick Cheney drama Vice.
The latter looks terrible based on the trailer, but it boasts some big
performances and topical material. Does anyone even need or want a satire of the Bush clan right now?
But let’s not kid ourselves. It’s October and this is all
for fun.
Here'e the first round of Oscar predictions along with
some added “For Your Consideration” gongs for contenders that deserve
a spot in the conversation.
Best Picture
Black Panther
BlackKkKlansman
Crazy Rich Asians
Crazy Rich Asians
The Favourite
First Man
Green Book
If Beale Street Could
Talk
A Star is Born
What about: Beautiful Boy, Boy Erased, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, The Frontrunner, On the Basis of Sex, Vice, Widows
FYC: Won’t You Be My
Neighbour?, Destroyer, Suspiria
Best Director
Damien Chazelle, First
Man
Bradley Cooper, A Star
is Born
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Yorgos Lanthimos, The
Favourite
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
What about: Ryan Coogler, Black Panther; Peter
Farrelly, Green Book; Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk; Jason
Reitman, The Frontrunner; Adam McKay,
Vice; Steve McQueen, Widows; Josie Rourke, Mary, Queen of Scots
FYC: Karyn Kusama, Destroyer;
Nadine Labaki, Capernaum
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, A Star
is Born
Willem Dafoe, At
Eternity’s Gate
Ryan Gosling, First
Man
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Viggo Mortensen, Green
Book
What about: Christian Bale, Vice; Steve Carell, Beautiful
Boy;
Clint Eastwood, The Mule; Lucas
Hedges, Boy Erased; Hugh Jackman, The Frontrunner; Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody; Robert Redford, The Old Man and the Gun
FYC:
Best Actress
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The
Favourite
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
Lady Gaga, A Star is
Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can
You Ever Forgive Me?
What about: Yalitza Aparicio, Roma; Emily Blunt, Mary
Poppins Returns; Viola Davis, Widows; Kathryn Hahn, Private Life; Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex; Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk; Julia Roberts, Ben is Back; Saoirse Ronan, Mary
Queen of Scots; Emma Stone, The
Favourite
FYC: Julianne Nicholson, Who We Are Now
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Green
Book
Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful
Boy
Adam Driver,
Sam Elliot, A Star is
Born
Richard E. Grant, Can
You Ever Forgive Me?
What about: Harry Belafonte, BlackKklansman; Bradley Cooper, The
Mule; Russell Crowe, Boy Erased; Joel
Edgerton, Boy Erased; Robert Forster,
What They Had; Nicholas Hoult, The
Favourite; Topher Grace, BlackKklansman; Sam Rockwell, Vice
Best Supporting
Actress
Claire Foy, First Man
Nicole Kidman, Boy
Erased
Regina King, If Beale
Street Could Talk
Rachel Weisz, The
Favourite
Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians
Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians
What about: Amy Adams, Vice;
Elizabeth Debicki, Widows; Vera
Farmiga, The Frontrunner; Aunjanue
Ellis, If Beale Street Could Talk; Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots; Emma Stone, The Favourite; Marina de
Tavira, Roma
FYC: Carmiña Martínez, Birds of Passage
Best Adapted
Screenplay
Boy Erased
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
If Beale Street Could
Talk
A Star is Born
What about: Beautiful
Boy; Crazy Rich Asians; First Man; Leave No Trace; Mary, Queen
of Scots; The Sisters Brothers; Suspiria, Widows
FYC: American Animals,
Suspiria
Best Original
Screenplay
The Favourite
First Reformed
Green Book
Roma
Vice
What about: Disobedience, Isle of Dogs, On the Basis of Sex; Private Life; Sorry to Bother You
FYC: Destroyer
Best Score
Black Panther
First Man
If Beale Street Could
Talk
Roma
What about: Suspiria, Disobedience, A Star is Born
Best Original Song
"Ashes" - Deadpool 2
"All the Stars" - Black Panther
"I'll Fight" - RBG
"I'll Never Love Again" - A Star is Born
"Shallow" - A Star is Born
What about: "Hearts Beat Loud" (Hearts Beat Loud), "Suspirium" (Suspiria), "Revelation" (Boy Erased), "Gravity" (Free Solo)
What about: Suspiria, Disobedience, A Star is Born
Best Original Song
"Ashes" - Deadpool 2
"All the Stars" - Black Panther
"I'll Fight" - RBG
"I'll Never Love Again" - A Star is Born
"Shallow" - A Star is Born
What about: "Hearts Beat Loud" (Hearts Beat Loud), "Suspirium" (Suspiria), "Revelation" (Boy Erased), "Gravity" (Free Solo)
Best Film Editing
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
First Man
Roma
A Star is Born
What about: Avengers: Infinity War, Beautiful Boy, Boy Erased, Green Book, Solo, Widows
What about: Avengers: Infinity War, Beautiful Boy, Boy Erased, Green Book, Solo, Widows
Best Cinematography
Cold War
First Man
If Beale Street Could
Talk
Roma
A Star is Born
Best Costumes
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Colette
Colette
The Favourite
Mary Queen of Scots
What about: If Beale Street Could Talk, Crazy Rich Asians, Suspiria, Bohemian Rhapsody, On the Basis of Sex, Mary Poppins Returns
Best Make-up and Hair
Black Panther
The Favourite
Mary, Queen of Scots
What about: Suspiria, Mary Poppins Returns, Bohemian Rhapsody, Colette
Best Production Design
Black Panther
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary, Queen of Scots
Roma
What about: Suspiria, Crazy Rich Asians, Solo, Colette
What about: If Beale Street Could Talk, Crazy Rich Asians, Suspiria, Bohemian Rhapsody, On the Basis of Sex, Mary Poppins Returns
Best Make-up and Hair
Black Panther
The Favourite
Mary, Queen of Scots
What about: Suspiria, Mary Poppins Returns, Bohemian Rhapsody, Colette
Best Production Design
Black Panther
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary, Queen of Scots
Roma
What about: Suspiria, Crazy Rich Asians, Solo, Colette
Best Documentary
Of Fathers and Sons
What about: The King,
Maria By Callas, McQueen, On Her Shoulders, Quincy, Science Fair, Three
Identical Strangers
Best Foreign Language
Film
Poland – Cold War
UK – I am Not a Witch
FYC: Birds of Passage (Colombia)
