Golden Globes: Will Win/Should Win (and Oscar update)

Will A Star is Born claim the lead at Sunday's Golden Globes?
Is it Golden Globes weekend already? How time flies! Award season is still all over the map as it nears the end of the advocacy stage of the critics’ groups. At this point last year, the Globes basically signalled the end for Laurie Metcalf and Willem Dafoe when their hot streaks on the critical circuit were interrupted by Allison Janney and Sam Rockwell, who went on to claim all major prizes from the Globes onward. Right now, Roma is on top in terms of Best Picture wins, but it is ineligible for the same prize at the Golden Globes on Sunday night, so we’ll at least have a better sense of who the bigger rivals are. Overall, I still feel that this is the big night for A Star is Born to take a confident lead, especially as it stands as one of only four films to score a Globe nomination for Best Picture along with top nominations from the Producers Guild and Screen Actors Guild. (Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody and BlacKkKlansman are the others.)

Most categories seem like a toss-up between two frontrunners, especially in the musical/comedy categories.

Here’s a quick rundown of who will win, could win, and should win on Sunday night.

Best Motion Picture – Drama

Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born

Although it missed a few key nominations (supporting actor and screenplay), A Star is Born is perfect fodder for the Globes voters who tend to favour musical fare and star power. BlacKkKlansman might be the spoiler, which should resonate with a body of international voters in Trump’s America. If Bohemian Rhapsody wins, we riot.

Will win: A Star is Born
I’d vote for: A Star is Born
Should have been there: Destroyer

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama

Glenn Close – The Wife
Lady Gaga – A Star is Born
Nicole Kidman - Destroyer
Melissa McCarthy - Can You Ever ForgiveMe?
Rosamund Pike - A Private War

If Melissa McCarthy wants to shake things up, now’s the time to do it, but Sunday is the first major showdown between perceived Best Actress frontrunners Glenn Close and Lady Gaga. I don’t think Close’s “overdue” factor will be a major player here since the Globes voters have awarded her television work for Damages in recent years, but they’re also prone to honouring the same favourites. Lady Gaga previously won for her TV work in American Horror Story, so they already take her seriously as an actress and if they awarded her for that performance, a win for her showstopper turn in A Star is Born seems like a no-brainer. (Plus, she’s the only one in a Best Picture nominee, so they clearly love the film.)

Will win: Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
I’d vote for: Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
Should have been there: I might have swapped Close for Julia Roberts (Ben is Back), but I can’t argue with these five

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

Bradley Cooper - A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe - At Eternity’s Gate
Lucas Hedges - Boy Erased
Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody
John David Washington – BlacKkKlansman

It’s a showdown of the hot mess musicians! Cooper far and away gives the best performance by an actor this year in my opinion and I think he has the edge here because he probably isn’t going to win Best Director. Don’t count out Rami Malek and his Chiclet teeth, though. The love for Bohemian Rhapsody is largely a generational thing and the Hollywood Foreign Press Association is Queen’s demographic.

Will win: Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
I’d vote for: Cooper
Should have been there: Ethan Hawke, First Reformed

Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Crazy Rich Asians
The Favourite
Green Book
Mary Poppins Returns

I think this category is the hardest call of the night. Although Vice leads the overall field with six nominations, Green Book, with five noms, was also cited in every category in which it was a realistic contender. (Neither film has a memorable score.) Vice is divisive OCD filmmaking while Green Book is safe and warm, offering two very different messages that essentially depend on the moods of voters. The Favourite is the potential spoiler, but if voters nominated Adam McKay and Peter Farrelly over the far more worthy Yorgos Lanthimos in the Best Director category, one can assume the film is in third.

Will win: Green Book
I’d vote for: The Favourite
Should have been there: Private Life

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Emily Blunt - Mary Poppins Returns
Olivia Colman - The Favourite
Elsie Fisher - Eighth Grade
Charlize Theron - Tully
Constance Wu - Crazy Rich Asians

Blunt/Colman, Blunt/Colman, Blunt/Colman? It’s a toss-up between the practically perfect Emily Blunt and the crowning achievement of Olivia Colman. I’m going with Blunt, mostly because the Globes tend to favour musicals and it’s the kind of fun and exuberant all-singing, all-dancing performance for which awards like these are made.

Will win: Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
I’d vote for: Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Should have been there: Kathryn Hahn, Private Life

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Christian Bale - Vice
Lin-Manuel Miranda - Mary Poppins Returns
Viggo Mortensen - Green Book
Robert Redford - The Old Man & the Gun
John C. Reilly - Stan & Ollie

I think this award is basically linked with Best Picture. It’s Bale versus Mortensen. While I think Bale’s darkly funny take on Dick Cheney is one of the year’s most brilliant performances, it’s hard to deny that Viggo is great even if one thinks that Green Book is lame, pandering, feel good nonsense.

Will win: Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
I’d vote for: Christian Bale, Vice
Should have been there: Lakeith Stanfield, Sorry to Bother You

Best Actress in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture

Amy Adams - Vice
Claire Foy - First Man
Regina King - If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone - The Favourite
Rachel Weisz - The Favourite

As much as I think that Vice has to win something with six nominations, Amy Adams is probably going to win for her work in Sharp Objects, which means that Regina King will likely take the win and rebound on her road to the Oscars after that bizarre SAG omission. As much as I prefer the performances from The Favourite, I think they could cancel each other out.

Will win: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
I’d vote for: Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Should have been there: Tilda Swinton, Suspiria

Best Actor in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture

Mahershala Ali - Green Book
Timothee Chalamet - Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver - BlacKkKlansman
Richard E. Grant - Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell – Vice

It’s probably Mahershala Ali against Richard E. Grant. (Rockwell won last year, so let’s assume he’s out.) My feeling this year is that Grant seems to be the default second choice for pretty much everyone. It’s a great, layered performance in a film that really deserves some major recognition, too.

Will win: Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
I’d vote for: Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Should have been there: Sam Elliot, A Star is Born

Best Motion Picture – Animated

Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

They’ll screw this one up. (Again.)

Will win: Incredibles 2
I’d vote for: Isle of Dogs

Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language

Never Look Away

Roma by a mile. Surest thing of the night.

Will win: Roma
I’d vote for: Roma
Should have been there: Birds of Passage

Best Director – Motion Picture

Bradley Cooper - A Star Is Born
Alfonso Cuarón - Roma
Peter Farrelly - Green Book
Spike Lee - BlacKkKlansman
Adam McKay – Vice

Spike Lee is the wild card here. The HFPA loved BlacKkKlansman and the film brilliantly carries the mark of its director. But despite the satirical fury of Lee’s punch, the Globes tend to recognize the showiest direction, which tips my money to Cuarón for his impeccably precise and innovative hand behind the camera in Roma.

Will win: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
I’ve vote for: Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Should have been there: Karyn Kusama, Destroyer

Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

Alfonso Cuarón - Roma
Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara - The Favourite
Barry Jenkins - If Beale Street Could Talk
Adam McKay - Vice
Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie - Green Book

Roma is one of my favourite films of the year, but the ongoing citations for its screenplay continually surprise me. (It’s more of a cinematic and artistic feat.) Vice is sharp and zippy, while Beale Street is heartfelt and resonant. However, my own bias puts The Favourite as the best screenplay of the year and tips this category to be the film’s best chance at a win on Sunday night.

Will win: The Favourite
I’d vote for: The Favourite
Should have been there: Destroyer, First Reformed

Best Original Score – Motion Picture

Marco Beltrami - A Quiet Place
Alexandre Desplat - Isle of Dogs
Ludwig Göransson - Black Panther
Justin Hurwitz - First Man
Marc Shaiman - Mary Poppins Returns

Will the mania for Black Panther top First Man’s experimental and propulsive score? I’m always a fan of Desplat, but he won last year so I doubt he’ll take it again.

Will win: First Man
I’d vote for: Isle of Dogs
Should have been there: Suspiria

Best Original Song – Motion Picture

“All the Stars” - Black Panther
“Girl in the Movies” - Dumplin’
“Requiem For a Private War” - A Private War
“Revelation’ - Boy Erased
“Shallow” - A Star Is Born

Rivals Roma for the title of “surest best of the night.”

Will win: “Shallow”
I’d vote for: “Shallow”
Should have been nominated: “EKG” from Vox Lux

And Updated Oscar Predictions!

 *New or moved

Best Picture
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody*
The Favourite
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk

What about: First Man*, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Crazy Rich Asians, Mary Poppins Returns* 
Falling off: Widows

Best Director
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

What about: Ryan Coogler, Black Panther; Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk; Adam McKay, Vice; Steve McQueen, Widows; Damien Chazelle, First Man*

Best Actor
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody*
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

What about: Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate*, Ryan Gosling, First Man; Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased; Robert Redford, The Old Man and the Gun, John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman*

Best Actress
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns*
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

What about: Yalitza Aparicio, Roma; Viola Davis, Widows;  Rosamund Pike, A Private War; Julia Roberts, Ben is Back; Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots; Emma Stone, The Favourite; Nicole Kidman, Destroyer

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlackKkKlansman
Sam Elliot, A Star is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

What about: Steve Carell, Vice; Russell Crowe, Boy Erased; Sam Rockwell, Vice

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Vice
Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

What about: Olivia Colman, The Favourite; Elizabeth Debicki, Widows; Claire Foy, First Man; Natalie Portman, Vox Lux;  Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots; Marina de Tavira, Roma; Michelle Yeoh, Widows

Best Adapted Screenplay
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star is Born

What about: Crazy Rich AsiansFirst ManLeave No TraceMary Queen of Scots  

Best Original Screenplay
The Favourite
First Reformed
Green Book

What about: Disobedience, Isle of DogsPrivate LifeSorry to Bother You

Best Score
Black Panther
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk

Also shortlisted: AnnihilationAvengers: Infinity War, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Crazy Rich Asians, The Death of Stalin, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindewald, Mary Poppins ReturnsA Quiet Place, Ready Player One, Vice

Best Original Song

"All the Stars" - Black Panther
"Girl in the Movies" - Dumplin'*
"I'll Fight" - RBG
"Revelation" - Boy Erased*
"Shallow" - A Star is Born

Also shortlisted: "Suspirium" (Suspiria),  "When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings" (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs), "Treasure" (Beautiful Boy), "We Won't Move" (The Hate You Give), "The Place Where Lost Things Go" (Mary Poppins Returns), "Trip a Little Light Fantastic" (Mary Poppins Returns) "Keep Reachin'" (Quincy), "A Place Called Slaughter Race" (Ralph Breaks the Internet), "OYAHYTT" (Sorry to Bother You), "The Big Unknown" (Widows)

Best Film Editing
Black Panther
First Man
A Star is Born

What about: Avengers: Infinity War, Green Book, A Private WarWidows, If Beale Street Could Talk,  

Best Cinematography
Cold War
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star is Born

What about: A Private WarSuspiria, At Eternity's Gate, The Favourite

Best Costumes
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody*
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots

What about: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs*, Colette*, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, If Beale Street Could Talk, Crazy Rich Asians, Suspiria,  

Best Make-up and Hair
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody*

Also shortlisted: Border, Mary Queen of Scots, Stan & OllieSuspiria 

Best Production Design
Black Panther
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots

What about: SuspiriaCrazy Rich Asians, Solo, Colette

Best Visual Effects
Avengers: Infinity War
Black Panther
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Ready Player One

Also shortlisted: Ant-Man and the Wasp, Avengers: Infinity WarChristopher Robin, Jurassic World: Fallen KingdomSolo: A Star Wars Story, Welcome to Marwen

Best Documentary
Minding the Gap
Of Fathers and Sons

Also shortlisted: Charm City, Communion, Crime + Punishment, Dark Money, The Distant Barking of DogsHale County This Morning, This Evening, On Her Shoulders, Shirkers, The Silence of Others, Three Identical Strangers, 

Best Foreign Language Film
Colombia - Birds of Passage
Japan - Shoplifters
Lebanon – Capernaum
Mexico – Roma
Poland – Cold War

Also shortlisted: Ayka (Kazakhstan), Burning (South Korea), The Guilty (Denmark), Never Look Away (Germany)