Oscar Predictions: Final Round - Four and One More

The Oscar nominations come out this Tuesday and what a year it has been. It’s been so wild and so up and down that the Spike Lee movie that likens the sitting President of the USA to the leader of the KKK is stirring up the least controversy this season. Yikes.

I'm confident predicting about 80% of the nominees since there's to a fair bit of overlap in contenders at precursors (ex: Globes, guilds, Critics Choice) to that degree. It really just depends which on them one puts more stock in...the Globes are a small group of Baby Boomers who openly accept favours, the SAG awards vote wayyyyyyy too early, and the Critics Choice awards are, well, critics, so they don't have any industry overlap -- but they matched the Oscars last year in nearly every category.

Let's look at the four who are confident and try to find the one who will join them:

Best Actor: 

The four: Christian Bale (Vice), Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born), Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody), Viggo Mortensen (Green Book). All of them scored at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards, and SAG Awards

One more: Ethan Hawke (First Reformed), John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman) and Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate)

The remaining three all received strong critical support with Washington landing Globe and SAG noms while the Globes nom'd Dafoe. However, Hawke, the overwhelming critical favourite, feels like this year's Marion Cotillard or Laura Dern who could edge out the competition thanks to the passion votes that will have him at #1. 

Best Actress: 

The four: Glenn Close (The Wife), Olivia Colman (The Favourite), Lady Gaga (A Star is Born), Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

One more: Yalitza Aparicio (Roma), Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns), Nicole Kidman (Destroyer), Viola Davis (Widows)

I think Kidman easily gave the best performance of 2018 in Destroyer, but the film just isn't connecting although the team seems to be making a last minute push. Both Blunt and Kidman could be double nominees in any other year, but either could be shut out on Tuesday. Blunt, who scored nominations at the Globes and SAG, but missed the BAFTAs (always bad for a Brit), might be the default number five due to the wider reach of the film. She also met (and, I think, surpassed) heavy expectations stepping into the shoes of a beloved Oscar winning performance. That counts for something. Davis, on the other hand, seemed out of the race until the BAFTAs placed her alongside the secure four with a last minute nudge of approval.

Best Supporting Actor: 

The four: Mahershala Ali (Green Book), Timothée Chalamet (Beautiful Boy), Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman), Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

One more: Sam Elliott (A Star is Born), Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther), Sam Rockwell (Vice)

Although Sam Rockwell squeaked in at the Golden Globes and BAFTAs, he won last year and I don't think the world is going to give it to him back to back. The love for Black Panther, and sheer mania to have it awarded, could prop up Michael B. Jordan, who most fans agree is the MVP of the film's SAG-nominated ensemble. (A claim I'll never understand...I love the cast, but I think he deserves a Razzie nomination for Black Panther and is the weak link of the film!) Call me biased, but I think Sam Elliott gets the fifth slot for his brief but memorable work in A Star is Born. He might have missed some major precursors, but I think this category will match the SAG nominations five for five.

Best Supporting Actress:

The four: Amy Adams (Vice), Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk), Emma Stone (The Favourite), Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)

One more: Claire Foy (First Man), Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots), Michelle Yeoh (Crazy Rich Asians)

This category is the tricky one. Is Regina King safe since she won the Golden Globe and Critics Choice? She missed the two industry gongs, though, with both the SAG and the BAFTAs opting for Margot Robbie. (And having rewatched Mary Queen of Scots this week, Robbie deserves recognition for her unexpected take on Elizabeth I that emphasizes her vanity and insecurity.) I think the SAG nomination is important since Mary Queen of Scots entered the race fairly late in the game, while Beale Street debuted early and, frankly, had an exceptionally actor-friendly show of talent. With that being said, though, I think Emily Blunt's SAG nomination for A Quiet Place is an anomaly and a product of the wider, younger membership. If she's landing a nomination, it'll be for Mary Poppins. Claire Foy, on the other hand, elevates what could have been just another "supportive wife" turn in First Man, but the film has had a bizarre run this season. (I still blame some kind of residual La La Land backlash.) I think she's a #2 or #3 performance on ballots, but not necessarily a #1, unlike King or, for that matter, Michelle Yeoh, who has been surprisingly absent this season despite being the anchor of Crazy Rich Asians' ensemble. She could surprise à la Jacki Weaver in Silver Linings Playbook, no?

But I say King's excellent performance is safe (hence placing her with "the four") and that her omission from both the SAG and BAFTA voters reflects how close the race can be.

Onto the final predictions we go!

* New or moved

Best Picture

Black Panther

BlackKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

Green Book

If Beale Street Could Talk

Roma

A Star is Born
Vice

What about: First Man, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Crazy Rich Asians, Cold War* 

Best Director

Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born

Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Peter Farrelly, Green Book

Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

What about: Ryan Coogler, Black Panther; Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk; Adam McKay, Vice; Damien Chazelle, First Man; Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War*

Best Actor

Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born

Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

What about: Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate, Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased; John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman*

Best Actress

Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns*
Glenn Close, The Wife

Olivia Colman, The Favourite

Lady Gaga, A Star is Born

Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

What about: Yalitza Aparicio, Roma; Viola Davis, Widows; Nicole Kidman, Destroyer*;  Rosamund Pike, A Private War; Julia Roberts, Ben is Back

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy

Adam Driver, BlackKkKlansman

Sam Elliot, A Star is Born

Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

What about: Steve Carell, Vice; Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther*; Sam Rockwell, Vice

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, Vice

Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots*
Emma Stone, The Favourite

Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

What about: Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased*,Claire Foy, First Man*; Marina de Tavira, Roma; Michelle Yeoh, Widows

Best Adapted Screenplay

BlacKkKlansman

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

If Beale Street Could Talk
Leave No Trace*

A Star is Born

What about: Crazy Rich Asians; First Man; Widows*

Best Original Screenplay

The Favourite

First Reformed

Green Book

Roma

Vice

What about: Eighth Grade, Isle of Dogs, Private Life; Sorry to Bother You

Best Score

Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman

First Man

If Beale Street Could Talk

Isle of Dogs

Also shortlisted: Annihilation, Avengers: Infinity War, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Crazy Rich Asians, The Death of Stalin, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindewald, Mary Poppins Returns, A Quiet Place, Ready Player One, Vice

Best Original Song

"All the Stars" - Black Panther
"Girl in the Movies" - Dumplin'
"I'll Fight" - RBG
"Revelation" - Boy Erased
"Shallow" - A Star is Born

Also shortlisted: "Suspirium" (Suspiria),  "When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings" (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs), "Treasure" (Beautiful Boy), "We Won't Move" (The Hate You Give), "The Place Where Lost Things Go" (Mary Poppins Returns), "Trip a Little Light Fantastic" (Mary Poppins Returns) "Keep Reachin'" (Quincy), "A Place Called Slaughter Race" (Ralph Breaks the Internet), "OYAHYTT" (Sorry to Bother You), "The Big Unknown" (Widows)

Best Film Editing

Black Panther

BlacKkKlansman

First Man

Roma

A Star is Born

What about: Avengers: Infinity War, The Favourite, Green Book, A Private War, Widows, If Beale Street Could Talk,  

Best Cinematography

Cold War

First Man

If Beale Street Could Talk

Roma

A Star is Born

What about: A Private War, Suspiria, At Eternity's Gate, The Favourite

Best Costumes

Black Panther

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns

Mary Queen of Scots

What about: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Colette, BlacKkKlansman, If Beale Street Could Talk, Crazy Rich Asians, Suspiria,  

Best Make-up and Hair
Black Panther
Mary Queen of Scots
Vice

Also shortlisted: Bohemian Rhapsody, Border, Stan & Ollie, Suspiria 

Best Production Design
Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots

What about: Roma, Suspiria, Crazy Rich Asians, Solo, Colette

Best Visual Effects
Avengers: Infinity War
Black Panther
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Ready Player One

Also shortlisted: Ant-Man and the Wasp, Christopher Robin, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Solo: A Star Wars Story, Welcome to Marwen

Best Sound Mixing
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place
A Star is Born

Best Sound Editing
Black Panther
First Man
Mission: Impossible - Fallout
A Quiet Place
Ready Player One

Best Documentary

Free Solo

Minding the Gap
Of Fathers and Sons

RBG

Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

Also shortlisted: Charm City, Communion, Crime + Punishment, Dark Money, The Distant Barking of Dogs, Hale County This Morning, This Evening, On Her Shoulders, Shirkers, The Silence of Others, Three Identical Strangers, 

Best Foreign Language Film

Colombia - Birds of Passage
Japan - Shoplifters
Lebanon – Capernaum
Mexico – Roma

Poland – Cold War

Also shortlisted: Ayka (Kazakhstan), Burning (South Korea), The Guilty (Denmark), Never Look Away (Germany)

Full list of submissions | ranked list of submissions seen

How do you think Oscar will vote?